Building Bankroll - Issue #11

In This Edition

• Recapping Last Week’s Picks

• Monday Night Football Games Preview

  • Titans @ Dolphins | 7:30pm EST

• Seahawks @ Lions | 8:15pm EST

• What Community Cappers Are Betting Tonight

• The MLB Playoffs Are 1 Day Away.

Recapping Last Week’s Picks

• Bills -5 [-110] ✅

• Brian Robinson Over 53.5 Rush Yards [-110] ❌

• Alabama ML [+110] ✅

• ND/LOU Under 48.5 [-110] ❌

Overall Record: 2-5 | -1.1 units

Monday Night Football Games Preview

We’ve got two more great MNF games on tonight’s slate, and it’s time to get educated on these matchups.

Here’s everything you need to know about both matchups, followed by some of the betting communities’ top picks.

Titans @ Dolphins | 7:30pm EST

• Line: MIA -2.5 | -110 (BetMGM)

• O/U: 37.5 | -120 (ESPNBet)

The Tennessee Titans (0-3) are in dire need of a win as they travel to Miami to face the Dolphins (1-2).

With Tua Tagovailoa and Skylar Thompson both sidelined, the Dolphins will start Tyler Huntley, recently signed from the Ravens' practice squad.

This matchup offers a prime opportunity for the Titans to turn their season around.

Team Analysis

The Titans have had a rough start, going 0-3 both straight-up and against the spread.

Will Levis has shown potential but has been hampered by costly turnovers.

Despite these offensive struggles, Tennessee's defense has been solid, particularly against the pass.

On offense, Tony Pollard has been a standout, and the Titans will aim to exploit Miami's run defense, which has allowed 5.1 and 7.1 yards per carry in their last two games.

The Dolphins find themselves in a challenging situation…

Tyler Huntley, with a career YPA of 5.7, will be making his first start of the season.

Miami's offense, under head coach Mike McDaniel, will likely simplify the playbook and lean heavily on the run game.

De'Von Achane is expected to play a significant role, especially if Raheem Mostert remains sidelined.

• At the time of publication, Mostert is questionable and unlikely to see playing time

Final Thoughts

With Mostert questionable and Huntley behind center, Achane should see a significant workload, making the over a worthwhile look.

Considering the Dolphins' quarterback situation and the Titans' ability to run the ball effectively, many cappers are expecting Tennessee to secure their first win.

Will Levis, despite his turnovers, is the better quarterback in this matchup, and Tony Pollard should find success against Miami's porous run defense.

Additionally, the Dolphins' red zone defense has been abysmal, allowing touchdowns on 85% of drives that reach the 20-yard line.

Seahawks @ Lions | 8:15pm EST

• Line: DET -4 | -110 (bet365)

• O/U: 46.5 | -112 (BetRivers)

The undefeated Seattle Seahawks (3-0) head to Ford Field to clash with the Detroit Lions (2-1) in what promises to be an intriguing Monday night matchup.

Seattle, under new head coach Mike Macdonald, has shown significant improvement, ranking 2nd in total DVOA (a stat that compares a team’s defensive success relative to the league average).

Despite facing relatively weaker opponents (Denver, New England, and Miami), the Seahawks have looked increasingly refined each week.

• Detroit, however, is a tough venue, and the Lions are eager to prove themselves.

Team Analysis

Seattle's defense has been a revelation, allowing just 14.3 points per game (4th) and 248.7 yards per game (2nd).

They’ve excelled in limiting opponents to a league-best 3.9 yards per play.

However, these stats come with a caveat: their opponents have included a rookie QB-led Broncos, a struggling Patriots offense, and a Tua-less Dolphins.

Offensively, the Seahawks have relied heavily on their aerial attack, ranking 13th in dropback EPA, but have struggled to run the ball, sitting 24th in rush EPA.

The Lions, despite a 2-1 record, have had a rocky start.

Their offense has been inconsistent, turning the ball over and failing to convert long drives into touchdowns.

The Lions' defense has been stout, particularly in the pass rush, ranking 3rd in the NFL with an 81.3 grade per PFF.

• This could spell trouble for a Seattle offensive line that ranks 29th in pass blocking.

Betting Insights

Spread: Given Seattle's defensive stats and Detroit's home-field advantage, this line seems reasonable.

However, the Seahawks' recent form and defensive prowess make them a tempting pick to cover.

Total Points: With both teams showing defensive strengths and offensive inconsistencies, the under could be a solid play.

Player Props: Given Detroit's strong pass rush and Seattle's weak pass blocking, Jared Goff's passing yards over/under could be an interesting market.

• Goff Pass Yards 240.5 | -110 (FanDuel)

Additionally, Seattle's reliance on the pass game makes their wide receivers' props worth a look.

While the Seahawks have impressed with their defensive stats, it's important to consider the quality of their opponents.

Detroit, despite their offensive struggles, has the tools to exploit Seattle's weaknesses.

The Lions lead the NFL in rush success rate, and their strong offensive line should help them find their rhythm against a Seattle defense that has yet to be truly tested.

What Community Cappers Are Betting Tonight

He’s had 5 interceptions thus far and that’s due to his horrendous o-line not giving him enough time in the pocket.

However, he’s thrown at least a TD pass in all games despite this.

I think his production finally matches his QBR as the Dolphins already made it publicly known that they’re going to make things uncomfortable for Levis.

We’re expecting a lot of blitz packages and that won’t be uncommon for a team that ranks 6th in blitz %.

Levis has gotten most of his production for long passes and don’t think he’ll have the same luxury here tonight.

This projects to be a low scoring affair with the Dolphins as favorites.

Half a unit for a full unit reward is worth my coin in this spot.

• Give us the under!

Will Levis has thrown a couple of games away with boneheaded turnovers, but he’ll be the better quarterback in this matchup and the Titans should be able to run the ball with Tony Pollard.

The Dolphins are coming off a game where they gave up 5.1 yards per carry to Zach Charbonnet, and the week before that they gave up 7.1 YPC to James Cook.

• I’m confident we’ll finally see Tennessee get a win on the board.

Why Pollard?

He has been a go-to guy in the red zone for the Titans, and I’m expecting Pollard to get plenty of opportunities on the ground.

Detroit's rush defense has shown cracks - and Pollard can exploit these gaps.

With the Seahawks' offensive line struggling in pass protection, expect them to lean more on the run game to keep the pressure off their QB.

• At +170, this is a play I can't ignore

I swear, some always has a ticket for some random guy scoring a TD.

Not plays, but here are some low-prop looks I’m sprinkling tonight:

• Alec Ingold | +2000 | BetRivers/Bally’s

• Durham Smythe | +2100 | FanDuel/BetMGM

• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | +3000 | DraftKings/BetMGM

• Jalen Ramsey | +6000 | Hard Rock Bet

The Dolphins injury report is pretty lengthy - especially on the offensive end.

It may not be Ingold or Smythe, but it feels like there’s going to be some value deeper on the depth chart.

The MLB Playoffs Are 1 Day Away.

We’ve got 4 Wild Card matchups tomorrow, and more to follow in the month of October.

Here’s what you need to know for tomorrow.

Tigers @ Astros | DET +125/HOU -150 | O/U 6.5

The Detroit Tigers, baseball’s hottest team, face off against the perennial postseason powerhouse Houston Astros in a best-of-three series.

The Tigers, who were 11 games out of playoff contention in mid-August, went on a remarkable 31-12 run to clinch a postseason spot.

Meanwhile, the Astros, making their eighth consecutive playoff appearance, are looking to leverage their experience and home-field advantage.

• Game 1: Tuesday, October 1, 2:30pm ET

• Game 2: Wednesday, October 2, 2:30pm

• Game 3 (if necessary): Thursday, October 3, 2:30pm

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers' lineup lacks household names but has been clutch in key moments.

• They rank seventh in OPS with runners in scoring position.

Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter are the standout hitters, with Greene hitting 24 home runs and Carpenter boasting a .932 OPS in limited action.

Tarik Skubal, the likely AL Cy Young winner, leads the rotation.

• Skubal finished the season with an 18-4 record and a 2.39 ERA.

Behind him, Reese Olson and a mix of openers and bulk relievers will likely fill out the rotation.

Detroit’s bullpen, which logged the most innings in MLB, ranks fourth in ERA.

The Tigers use a closer-by-committee approach, with Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, Beau Brieske, and Will Vest sharing the load.

Houston Astros

Despite missing Kyle Tucker for much of the season, they have a balanced lineup led by Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.

Yordan Alvarez’s status is uncertain due to a knee sprain, which could end up having an impact on this matchup.

• The Astros rank sixth in wRC+ and second in team batting average

Framber Valdez, who finished third in the AL with a 2.91 ERA, will start Game 1.

• Hunter Brown and Yusei Kikuchi are likely to follow.

Valdez has been particularly dominant in the second half of the season, posting a 1.96 ERA in his last 12 starts.

In addition to a strong starting rotation, Houston’s bullpen ranks eighth in ERA.

Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu anchor the back end, with Ryan Pressly and Hector Neris providing depth.

The Astros could potentially use starters like Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti in relief roles.

Remember, October baseball is win or go home.

Betting Insights

Given Detroit’s recent form and Skubal’s dominance, the Tigers as underdogs has a little merit.

With two elite pitchers starting Game 1, the under on total runs is set at just 6.5.

Both Skubal and Valdez have been lights out, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

While the Astros have the experience and home-field advantage, the Tigers’ recent form and Skubal’s brilliance make this series more competitive than the odds suggest.

Expect a tightly contested series with strong pitching performances on both sides.

Royals @ Orioles | KC +130/BAL -155 | O/U 6.5

The Kansas City Royals, making their third playoff appearance since 1985, face off against the Baltimore Orioles in a best-of-three Wild Card series.

The Royals, who have a history of dramatic postseason runs, will look to upset the Orioles, who finished five games ahead in the regular season standings.

• Game 1: Tuesday October 1, 4pm ET

• Game 2: Wednesday October 2, 4pm

• Game 3 (if necessary): Thursday October 3, 4pm

Kansas City Royals

The Royals' offense is heavily reliant on Bobby Witt Jr., who posted a 168 wRC+ this season.

• The Royals rank 28th in BB% but excel in putting balls in play, boasting the third-lowest K% at 19.4%.

They also rank high in stolen bases, with 134 on the season, which could be a factor in this series.

The Royals have a solid starting rotation led by Cole Ragans, who posted a 3.14 ERA and a 2.99 FIP.

Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha round out the rotation, both of whom have been reliable innings eaters.

 🤯 Royals' starters have allowed just 48 home runs out of 2,283 batters face.

Kansas City's bullpen has improved significantly, posting a 2.68 ERA and a 2.72 FIP over the last 30 days.

• Key relievers include John Schreiber, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who have all had strong seasons.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have a potent lineup, ranking fifth in wOBA and second in hard-hit percentage.

• They hit 235 home runs this season, second only to the Yankees.

Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander lead the charge, with Henderson posting a 9.1 WAR season.

• Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.92 ERA and a 3.55 FIP, will start Game 1.

Zach Eflin, who had a 2.60 ERA in nine starts after being acquired at the trade deadline, is likely to start Game 2.

Rotation depth is a concern, especially with Grayson Rodriguez out for the season.

Additionally, the Orioles' bullpen has struggled recently, posting a 5.34 ERA over the last 30 days.

Key relievers include Seranthony Dominguez and Yennier Cano, but the absence of Felix Bautista is a significant blow.

Betting Insights

The over/under is set at 6.5, reflecting the strong pitching matchups.

Both teams have capable offenses, but the Royals' defensive prowess and the Orioles' recent bullpen struggles could influence the total.

Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson are the key players to watch in this one.

Witt's ability to get on base and steal could be pivotal, while Henderson's power makes him a threat in any at-bat.

Expect a tightly contested series with potential for an upset.

The Final Two October 1 Wild Card Matchups

At 5:30pm ET, we’ve got either the Diamondbacks or Mets going up against the Brewers in Wisconsin.

At 8:30pm the Padres will play at home against either the Braves or the Mets.

After winning the second to last regular season game of the season, the Mets have one more game against the Braves to close out the season.

Here’s a breakdown of what can happen in this final game:

Mets win Game 1, lose Game 2

The Mets qualify for the playoffs.

With the doubleheader split, they secure the No. 6 seed and will face the Brewers in the Wild Card Series.

This outcome eliminates the D-Backs and advances the Braves.

Mets win both games

They qualify for the playoffs and earn the No. 5 seed, setting up a Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres.

The Diamondbacks would then secure the No. 6 seed, and the Braves would be eliminated.

You can follow this link to see the rest of the known MLB playoff schedule.

And that’s a cap on Issue #11 of Building Bankroll.

Happy betting - maybe this week it’ll be your ticket going viral on X.