In this issue:

• The Real Odds Behind Your Bets

  • Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

  • MNF Betting Preview: Ravens @ Chargers

    • Random Alt Lines I Might Sprinkle

  • Best College Basketball Games This Week 🏀

  • Best College Football Games This Weekend 🏈

  • Slip of the Week

The Real Odds Behind Your Bets

If you’ve ever gone down the rabbit hole of break-even rates in sports betting, you’ve probably seen the number 52.38%.

That’s the winning rate a bettors needs to be profitable… IF they are taking every wager at -110 odds.

But in reality, most of us are laying bets with -110 few and far between.

• With the introduction of more markets (live drives, alt lines, etc.), bettors are just less likely to see these odds as often.

According to my Pikkit stats, more than 76% of the bets I place are at +100 or higher.

I’ll go even further on this - In the month of November, my betting record is 64-121-1.

• That’s a win rate of 34.59%…

But because I place wagers with higher odds, I’m up 66.7 units with that record.

Why Should You Care?

It's not just about how many bets you win, but the value of those wins.

When you’re consistently taking good bets that are plus odds, you can literally afford to lose more often and still come out ahead.

It also highlights the fact that a bettor’s record doesn’t really tell you anything.

What really matters is a bettor’s ROI or total units won/lost.

Are they really winning, or just spinning their wheels?

By understanding and leveraging the odds behind your betting style, you can stay consistent and play to your strengths.

Build that bankroll.

Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

But first, we recap last week’s picks:

• Joe Mixon u21.5 Rush Attempts (-115) ✅

• L. Draisaitl o1.5 Points (+120) ❌

• Kansas +3 v. Colorado (-110) ✅

• Army 1Q TT o0.5 (+105) ❌

Overall Record: 15-16 | +0.12u ⚖️

Duke is not deep at the 5, and Hunter Dickinson always seems to get a favorable whistle.

If Kansas continues to play through their big, I see Kansas covering this spread with ease.

This is not an easy environment for the young Duke squad, and I am still not sold on Proctor and Foster as leaders.

• Give me the Jayhawks in Vegas.

On the season, Lamar averages 29.2 passing attempts per game and we’re getting a 30.5 line for + money so that’s a steal already.

There’s a common theme here with the Ravens in all their 4 losses this season, which is Lamar and the Ravens steering away from their strength in the running game.

The Chargers are ranked 10th in rushing defense and when you take a look at it, that’s not bad.

However, when you take a look at who they faced, it could cause concerns because 7/10 opponent’s ranked 18th or lower in rushing yards per game.

This is the Charger’s toughest test to date in terms of rushing teams between Lamar and Henry.

Henry has a 18.5 rushing attempt line so there’ll be emphasis on establishing the run game for him after only going for 16 and 13 attempts in his L2 games - which will reduce Lamar’s volume.

The Chargers have gotten a step ahead against inferior teams which have cause them to play catchup.

However, I think the Ravens bounce back and hit huge splash plays tonight.

A well-balanced offense should keep Lamar under in this one.

• Give us the + money!

The Giants have one of the worst defenses in the league, especially in the air.

• They give up an average of 200+ yards per game in the air, and have given up 12 passing TDs this season.

Ceedee is on a 4 game touchdown drought, but this Giants defense has already shown they can’t contain him.

MNF Betting Preview: Ravens @ Chargers

It's a Harbaugh family affair on Monday Night Football as the Baltimore Ravens head to Los Angeles to battle the Chargers.

With the Ravens favored by 2.5 points and the total set at 50.5, this matchup promises to be a thrilling encounter between two high-powered offenses and contrasting defenses.

Kickoff is at 8:15 PM EST, and fans can expect fireworks as both teams look to solidify their playoff aspirations.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens boast one of the league's most dynamic offenses, averaging 30.4 points per game, second-best in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson continues to be a dual-threat nightmare, and with Derrick Henry in the backfield, Baltimore's rushing attack is one of the best in the league, ranking second with 177.3 yards per game.

However, Jackson's recent struggles against the Steelers, where he completed less than 50% of his passes, could be a concern.

Baltimore's defense is a tale of two halves.

While they excel against the run, allowing just 77.5 yards per game, their pass defense is horrendous, ranking last in the league with 284.5 passing yards allowed per game.

This vulnerability could be exploited by Justin Herbert and the Chargers' aerial attack tonight.

The Ravens have some key players questionable, including defensive lineman Travis Jones and linebacker Roquan Smith.

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert is in fine form, averaging over 274 passing yards per game since Week 7 with a pristine 7-0 TD-INT ratio.

The Chargers' offense, while not as explosive as Baltimore's, is efficient, ranking 12th in rushing with 121.6 yards per game.

Herbert's ability to spread the ball around will be crucial against Baltimore's porous secondary.

The Chargers' defense is the best in the league, allowing just 14.5 points per game.

Their ability to contain Lamar Jackson will be pivotal, especially after the Steelers provided a blueprint for limiting his effectiveness.

However, their run defense could be tested by Baltimore's ground game.

The Chargers have several key players questionable, including linebacker Khalil Mack and wide receiver Ladd McConkey, which could affect their defensive and offensive depth.

• Both Mack and McConkey are listed as questionable, but projected to play tonight.

Betting Insights

Baltimore is favored by 2.5 points, and given their strong record following a divisional loss, they could be a solid pick against the spread.

• The Ravens have covered in their last 12 games after a division loss

The Over at 50.5 is enticing, considering both teams' offensive capabilities and Baltimore's defensive struggles against the pass.

The Ravens have hit the Over in 9 of their 11 games this season, and with Herbert and Jackson at the helm, a high-scoring affair is likely.

Random Alt Lines I Might Sprinkle

Need some inspiration for tonight’s matchup?

Here are a few alternate leans I’m liking for tonight…

• Justin Herbert 3+ Pass TDs (+350)

• Under 44.5 Total Points (+220)

• Lamar Jackson 2+ TDs (+1700)

• Isaiah Likely First TD Scorer (+2500)

Best College Basketball Games This Week 🏀

November 25 - December 1

Monday, November 25

Iowa State⁵ vs Auburn⁴ | 9:00pm EST

• Maui Invitational

Dayton vs North Carolina¹⁰ | 11:30pm EST

• Maui Invitational

Tuesday, November 26

San Diego State vs Creighton¹⁴ | 2:00pm EST

• Players Era Festival - Power Tournament

Oregon²³ vs Texas A&M | 4:30pm EST

• Players Era Festival - Power Tournament

Houston⁷ vs Alabama⁸ | 8:00pm EST

• Players Era Festival - Impact Tournament

Kansas¹ vs Duke¹² | 9:00pm EST

• Terry's Chocolate Vegas Showdown

Rutgers²⁴ vs Notre Dame | 10:30pm EST

• Players Era Festival - Impact Tournament

Wednesday, November 27

Louisville vs Indiana¹⁶ | 12:00pm EST

• Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis

West Virginia vs Gonzaga³ | 2:30pm EST

• Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis

Texas A&M²³ vs Creighton¹⁴ | 6:30pm EST

• Players Era Festival - Power Tournament

Davidson vs Arizona¹⁷ | 7:30pm EST

• Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis

Rutgers²⁴ vs Alabama⁸ | 10:00pm EST

• Players Era Festival - Impact Tournament

Thursday, November 28 🍗

Florida²¹ vs Wake Forest | 2:30pm EST

• ESPN Events Invitational

Purdue⁶ vs NC State | 3:00pm EST

• Rady Children's Invitational

Arkansas²⁰ vs Illinois²⁵ | 4:00pm EST

• Thanksgiving Hoops Showcase

Saturday, November 30

Furman vs Kansas¹ | Time TBD

• Terry's Chocolate Vegas Showdown

Best College Football Games This Weekend 🏈

Thursday, November 28 🍗

Memphis @ Tulane¹⁸ | 7:30pm EST

• Tulane -13.5

• O/U: 56.5

Friday, November 29

12:00pm EST

Oregon State @ Boise State¹¹

• Boise State -18.5

• O/U: 55.5

Oklahoma State @ Colorado²³

• Colorado -17

• O/U: 64.5

3:30pm EST

Mississippi State @ Ole Miss¹⁵

• Ole Miss -26.5

• O/U: 61.5

7:30pm EST

Georgia Tech @ Georgia⁶

• Georgia -20

• O/U: 54.5

Nebraska @ Iowa

• Iowa -3.5

• O/U: 39.5

Saturday, November 30

12:00pm EST

Michigan @ Ohio State²

• Ohio State -20.5

• O/U: 44.5

Tennessee⁷ @ Vanderbilt

• Tennessee -12

• O/U: 48.5

South Carolina¹⁶ @ Clemson¹²

• Clemson -2.5

• O/U: 49.5

Kansas @ Baylor

• Baylor -1.5

• O/U: 60.5

3:30pm EST

Maryland @ Penn State⁴

• Penn State -24

• O/U: 49.5

Notre Dame⁵ @ USC

• Notre Dame -7

• O/U: 50.5

Auburn @ Alabama¹³

• Alabama -11.5

• O/U: 52.5

Miami⁸ @ Syracuse

• Miami -11

• O/U: 67.5

California @ SMU⁹

• SMU -12.5

• O/U: 56.5

Arizona State¹⁴ @ Arizona

• Arizona State -9

• O/U: 53.5

7:00pm EST

Purdue @ Indiana¹⁰

• Indiana -28

• O/U: 56.5

Oklahoma @ LSU

• LSU -6

• O/U: 47.5

Washington @ Oregon¹

• Oregon -19

• O/U: 51.5

7:30pm EST

Texas³ @ Texas A&M²⁰

• Texas -5.5

• O/U: 48.5

Kansas State @ Iowa State¹⁷

• Iowa State -2.5

• O/U: 52.5

10:15pm EST

Houston @ BYU¹⁹

• BYU -12.5

• O/U: 41.5

Slip of the Week

Can’t even imagine the range of emotions for this bettor ✅