Are College Coaches Playing to Cover the Spread?

Last weekend’s game featuring North Dakota State and Colorado was handed a load of criticism when Deion Sanders drew up two deep pass plays up 5 points with less than 2 minutes left in the game.

If they had scored on this final (garbage time) drive, Colorado would have covered the spread of -9.5.

Instead - NDSU got the ball back and ended up on Colorado’s 4-yard line as time expired.

It sparked plenty of debate among sports bettors - we took it as a sign that Deion wanted to cover. Badly.

I’m quite certain that most coaches are aware of the spread for each game - it’s a benchmark for what’s expected of them.

However, the reality is that teams have been trying to run up the score since basically forever.

While covering the spread can’t hurt, coaches are more worried about moving up in the rankings.

Winning by more points does that.

Do you believe in late-game coincidences, or are college teams more dedicated to covering the spread than ever?

Will Florida State Beat Boston College?

Florida State looks to rebound after a disappointing Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech, as they host Boston College tonight.

• Boston College @ Florida State¹⁰ | 7:30 pm ET

  • Line: FSU -16.5

  • O/U: 49.5

Boston College comes into Tallahassee after a lackluster 2023 season, where they ranked poorly in several defensive metrics, including 82nd in Defensive Success Rate and 123rd in Havoc.

Despite giving Florida State a scare last year, the Eagles face an uphill battle with a defense that struggled to stop both the run and the pass.

Florida State QB D.J. Uiagalelei, who transferred from Oregon State, has much to prove after a forgettable debut.

• 19/27 | 193 pass yds | 0 TD | 0 INT

He’ll be looking to bounce back against a Boston College defense that was dreadful in 2023, especially against the pass (ranking 105th in Passing Defense Success Rate).

The Seminoles' offensive line, despite underperforming last week, remains experienced and should provide Uiagalelei with the protection he needs to find his talented receivers like Malik Benson and Ja'khi Douglas.

Boston College’s defense also struggled against the run last season, allowing opponents to run more frequently than expected.

This plays right into Florida State’s hands, as the Seminoles’ offensive line is likely to bounce back and dominate the trenches.

Given Boston College’s defensive woes and Uiagalelei’s motivation to prove himself, Florida State is poised to cover the 16.5-point spread.

A blowout victory could be on the horizon as the Seminoles aim to sh ake off their Week 0 disappointment and establish themselves as a force in the ACC.

Week 2 CFB Betting Watchlist: Key Matchups and Lines You Need to Know

With Week 1 in the books, we turn our attention to Week 2, where some blockbuster games are set to make waves.

Among the headliners is a top-10 showdown as Texas travels to Michigan for a high-stakes battle on Saturday.

Texas⁴ @ Michigan⁹ | 12pm

• Line: Texas -6.5

• O/U: 44.5

Texas dominated Colorado State in Week 1, with Quinn Ewers leading the charge.

• 20-27 | 260 pass yds | 3 TD | 1 INT

Arch Manning saw the field with roughly a quarter and a half remaining.

• 5/6 | 95 pass yds | 1 TD | 0 INT

However, facing Michigan's elite defense on the road will be a much tougher test for the Longhorns.

Ewers is a top-tier quarterback, but his success is heavily reliant on play-action, which might be limited with Texas missing starting RB CJ Baxter.

Michigan’s stout run defense, which held Fresno State to just nine rushing yards, will look to capitalize on this weakness.

Michigan’s offense, led by Davis Warren, struggled to move the ball through the air against Fresno State.

They’ll likely lean heavily on RB Donavan Edwards and their methodical pace.

With a slower tempo and strong defense, Michigan has the tools to keep this game close.

The line has jumped to Texas -6.5 after sitting at -3.5 all summer, creating potential value on Michigan at home.

• Taking Michigan +6.5 in the Big House seems to be the sharp play so far.

Arkansas @ Oklahoma State¹⁷ | 12pm

Oklahoma State renews its rivalry with Arkansas for the first time since 1980.

The Cowboys, ranked 17th, are favored by 8.5 points and are looking to build on a solid season opener.

• Line: OKST -8.5

• O/U: 59.5

QB Alan Bowman will need another efficient game to neutralize Arkansas' fierce defensive front, led by NFL prospect Landon Jackson.

Jackson is a game-changer, especially after his standout performance against Alabama last season.

Arkansas comes into this matchup confident after a 70-0 win, albeit against a weaker opponent.

Their defensive strength lies up front, and with Oklahoma State’s run blocking underwhelming in Week 1, the Razorbacks have a shot at disrupting the Cowboys' game plan.

• Containing star RB Ollie Gordon III, who ran for 108 yards and 2 TDs in the opener, will be key for Arkansas to stay in the game.

Oklahoma State's experienced defense, led by safety Kendal Daniels, is expected to improve as the season progresses.

The Cowboys' ability to stop the run could force Arkansas into difficult situations, making OSU a solid bet to cover the spread. Both teams are likely to show significant improvement from Week 1, making this a critical game for bettors to watch closely.

• With both teams likely planning to pound the rock on Saturday, Under 59.5 seems to be the sharp spot at this point in the week

Iowa State @ Iowa²⁵ | 3:30pm

• Line: Iowa -3

• O/U: 35.5

The annual Cy-Hawk showdown features an Iowa State team returning 19 starters, led by sophomore QB Rocco Becht.

Becht, last year's Big 12 Freshman of the Year, has his top two receivers and all five offensive line starters back.

Despite a solid first game, the Cyclones' offense will face a tough challenge against Iowa's defense.

Iowa, led by QB Cade McNamara, showed offensive promise in their opener with a 40-0 win over Illinois State.

• 21/31 | 251 pass yds | 3 TD | 0 INT

However, Iowa State’s defense, which allowed just three points in their first game, will be a tougher test.

Iowa’s run game, led by Kaleb Johnson, needs to establish dominance against Iowa State's front seven.

On the other side, Iowa State must stretch the field early to exploit Iowa's secondary, weakened by the loss of NFL-bound Cooper DeJean.

• With a low total set at 35.5, expect a defensive battle.

Both offenses may struggle to put up points, making the under a strong play.

Tennessee¹⁵ @ NC State²⁴ | 7:30pm

• Line: TENN -7.5

• O/U: 59.5

Tennessee, fresh off a 69-3 thrashing of Chattanooga, heads to Raleigh to face NC State in a prime-time clash

Vols' QB Nico Iamaleava was nearly perfect in his first start, throwing for 314 yards and 3 TDs in just one half.

Tennessee’s offense, featuring RB Dylan Sampson (124 yards, 3 TDs) and WR Dont’e Thornton (105 yards, 2 TDs), looked unstoppable.

NC State, however, will be a much stiffer test.

The Wolfpack struggled early against Western Carolina but pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 38-21 win.

Transfer QB Grayson McCall threw for 318 yards and 3 TDs, while RB Jordan Waters added 123 yards and 2 scores on the ground.

WR Kevin Concepcion also impressed with 121 yards and 3 TDs.

The key for NC State will be their ability to control the trenches, especially against Tennessee’s high-powered offense.

The Vols are favored by 7.5, but NC State’s solid running game and home-field advantage could keep it close.

Despite Tennessee’s explosive start, NC State has the talent to cover, making them a live underdog.

The total of 59.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, but both defenses will need to step up to contain these potent offenses.

Colorado @ Nebraska | 7:30pm

Coach Prime’s Colorado Buffaloes head to Lincoln to face Nebraska in a highly anticipated Week 2 matchup.

• Line: NEB -7

• O/U: 57.5

Despite dominating this game 36-14 last year, Colorado enters as a 7-point underdog, raising questions about whether the line is an overreaction to Week 1 results.

Colorado’s offense shined in their 31-26 win over North Dakota State, averaging 8.8 yards per play and racking up 504 total yards.

• QB Shedeur Sanders was electric, throwing for 445 yards and 4 touchdowns.

• Travis Hunter put on an incredible showing, with 3 touchdowns. He only came off for 2 plays the entire game.

However, the Buffaloes' defense showed vulnerabilities, allowing 449 yards and 6.5 yards per play.

Nebraska, meanwhile, cruised past UTEP 40-7, covering the spread with ease.

• Dylan Raiola: 19/27 | 238 pass yds | 2 TD | 0 INT

Nebraska’s true freshman QB Dylan Raiola will face his first real test against Colorado.

While talented, Raiola is still unproven, and Nebraska’s offensive line, though improved, remains a concern after a dismal 2023.

On the other hand, Colorado’s rebuilt offensive line showed promise in pass protection, allowing just one sack in their opener.

• Despite sharp money on Nebraska, over 75% of public bets are on Colorado’s moneyline.

• Nebraska’s defense will challenge Sanders, but Colorado’s explosive passing game keeps them competitive.

• Expect a close game where Colorado could cover the spread, even if Nebraska edges out

New York’s Betting Boom: How August Set New Revenue Records

According to the New York State Gaming Commission, bettors wagered over $300 million online for the week ending August 18, bringing in a whopping $18.4 million in tax revenue.

This marks one of the summer’s most profitable weeks for the state.

With football season just around the corner, New York’s online sportsbooks are gearing up for a strong finish to the summer.

The week’s action resulted in more than $35 million in gross gaming revenue, making it a highlight in New York’s betting landscape.

Breaking Down the Numbers

For the week ending August 18, New York’s nine sportsbooks reported a combined gross gaming revenue of $36,156,309.

With the state’s 51% tax rate on online sports betting, this led to $18,439,717 in tax revenue—a substantial boost to state coffers.

Here’s how the top sportsbooks fared:

1. FanDuel: $15,153,535

2. DraftKings: $12,763,020

3. Caesars: $2,445,218

4. Fanatics Sportsbook: $2,811,682

5. BetMGM: $2,148,387

6. BetRivers: $711,778

7. Resorts World: $95,354

8. Bally Bet: $27,335

As we transition into the peak betting season, all eyes will be on New York to see if it can maintain this momentum.

NFL Week 1 Betting Guide: Top Matchups and Smart Money Picks

Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, bringing with it a full slate of must-watch matchups and intriguing betting opportunities.

As teams hit the field for the first time this season, sharp bettors will be looking for early edges and value in the lines.

From prime-time showdowns to under-the-radar games, there are plenty of spots where smart money can make a difference.

Who’s Favored To Win the Thursday Night Football Game?

The NFL season kicks off with a bang as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last year’s AFC title game.

While both teams remain elite, roster changes make this Week 1 matchup intriguing.

The game kicks off at 8:20pm Eastern.

• Line: KC -3

• O/U: 46.5

Baltimore’s defense took some hits in the offseason, losing key players like Patrick Queen and Jadeveon Clowney.

The Ravens’ offense also sees changes, with a revamped O-line protecting Lamar Jackson.

Despite these losses, the Ravens still boast a defense that led the league in several key metrics last season, including sacks and points allowed.

Kansas City, meanwhile, made moves of their own, trading L’Jarius Sneed and losing Willie Gay in free agency.

However, Patrick Mahomes remains the anchor, with a strong supporting cast and a stellar head-to-head record against Baltimore—Mahomes has lost just once to the Ravens in five meetings, covering the spread in all five.

The Chiefs have started strong in recent seasons, winning eight of their last nine openers.

While many anticipate a shootout, history suggests a more defensive battle, especially with the Under hitting in 18 of Kansas City’s last 22 home games.

• Baltimore’s addition of Derrick Henry boosts their offense, but the Ravens’ defense will likely be the key factor.

• With Kansas City dealing with offseason changes, Baltimore has a strong chance to pull off the upset.

Friday Night Football Betting Predictions

The first international game of the 2024 NFL season kicks off (8:15pm) in São Paulo as the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Green Bay Packers.

Oddsmakers have set the Eagles as slight favorites, but with both teams eyeing playoff spots, this matchup is set to be a barnburner.

• Line: PHI -3

• O/U: 48.5

Jordan Love ended 2023 on fire, leading the Packers to a wild card win before falling short in the divisional round.

• Love’s final eight regular-season games saw him throw for 2,150 yards, 18 TDs, and just one interception.

With a strong finish and a solid offensive line, Love enters 2024 as a potential MVP candidate.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has added star RB Saquon Barkley to an already potent offense.

• Barkley will benefit from a much improved offensive line, and oddsmakers set his debut prop at 65.5 rushing yards.

The Eagles, however, ended last season on a downward spiral, losing six of their last seven games, including a blowout playoff loss to Tampa Bay.

Defensively, the Eagles retooled by bringing in Vic Fangio as coordinator and adding key pieces like Bryce Huff.

However, they also lost veterans like Jason Kelce, leading to potential growing pains with new schemes on both sides of the ball.

The Packers, who excelled as underdogs last season (8-4 ATS), could take advantage of an inexperienced Eagles secondary and a vulnerable run defense.

With Josh Jacobs now in the backfield, expect Green Bay to mix a strong ground game with Love’s aerial attack.

• While the Eagles are favored, the value may lie with the Packers in this neutral-site game.

Philadelphia's late-season struggles and Green Bay’s momentum make the Packers a live underdog, especially with Jordan Love primed to exploit a shaky Eagles defense.

Sunday Night Football Preview & Betting Picks

The Los Angeles Rams visit the Detroit Lions in a highly anticipated Sunday Night Football matchup.

The game kicks off at 8:20pm ET.

• Line: DET -3.5

• O/U: 50.5

The Lions are favored by 3.5 points, a significant line given the key number of 3 in NFL betting, especially with Detroit’s home-field advantage.

This game features another reunion for Rams QB Matthew Stafford, who spent 12 seasons with the Lions before leading the Rams to a Super Bowl win in 2021.

Now, Stafford faces his former team, which has become a powerhouse under head coach Dan Campbell.

Detroit nearly reached the Super Bowl last season, thanks to an aggressive offense that ranked fourth in offensive EPA.

• The Lions invested heavily in WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and he’s expected to shine in Week 1.

Meanwhile, the Rams, despite losing defensive anchor Aaron Donald to retirement, still have a potent offense led by Stafford and weapons like Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams.

• The Rams also bolstered their offensive line by drafting Steve Avila and adding veterans Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson.

Detroit’s defense struggled against the pass last season, ranking near the bottom in passing yards and touchdowns allowed.

This vulnerability could keep the game close, especially if Stafford connects early with Kupp and Nacua.

However, Detroit’s offensive firepower, combined with Campbell’s aggressive coaching style, suggests this game could come down to the final possession.

• The over looks appealing here, with both teams featuring high-octane offenses and suspect defenses.

Despite last year’s playoff matchup ending in a 24-23 Lions win, regular-season games often see more scoring, especially with offensive-minded coaches like Sean McVay and Dan Campbell.

Both teams cleared this total in more than half their games last season, making the over a strong play.

• Expect a tight contest with plenty of scoring in this NFC showdown.

Monday Night Football Preview & Betting Picks

Aaron Rodgers makes his much-anticipated return from injury as the New York Jets face the San Francisco 49ers in a Monday Night Football showdown.

• Line: SF -3.5

• O/U: 43.5

It’s been nearly a year since Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1 last season, and all eyes will be on him as he takes the field for the Jets in their season opener.

The Jets stumbled to a 7-10 record last year after losing Rodgers in the first game, relying on Zach Wilson at quarterback before ultimately falling short of their playoff hopes.

Now, with Rodgers back under center, the Jets are looking to reset and make a statement against a formidable 49ers team.

San Francisco, coming off a 12-5 season and a close Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, is poised for another deep playoff run.

Led by Brock Purdy, who threw for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, the 49ers boast one of the league’s most balanced and potent offenses.

Christian McCaffrey remains a key weapon, while the 49ers’ defense, ranked third in points allowed last season, looks to remain elite.

The Jets’ defense will have its hands full, but it was one of the bright spots last season, allowing just 17.5 points per game.

However, with Rodgers leading the offense, the Jets will need to find a way to generate points against a tough 49ers defense that excelled in both the run and pass game.

The 49ers’ defense should challenge Rodgers in his return, while San Francisco’s offense may find it difficult to dominate against a solid Jets defense.

Despite the uncertainties surrounding the Jets’ offense, the 49ers' consistent play and home-field advantage make them the safer bet.

The line at -3.5 suggests a close game, but with the 49ers’ balanced attack and the Jets still finding their rhythm with Rodgers, San Francisco should cover the spread in what promises to be an intriguing Monday night matchup.

Quiz Time: How Well Do You Know Betting Laws?

After the Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on sports gambling in Murphy v. NCAA back in 2018, the sports betting landscape in the U.S. has exploded.

States rushed to legalize, and the industry has been raking in record profits year after year.

So, just how many states have jumped on the sports betting bandwagon?

You’ll find the answer at the bottom of this newsletter edition.

MLB Playoff Picture if Season Ended Today

With only 29 days until the Wild Card Series begin, here’s what the current MLB playoff picture looks like.

MLB Playoff Bracket: AL

Since last week, the Twins (74-62) dropped a series (1-2) against the Cardinals, were swept by the Braves, and beat out the Blue Jays 2-1.

The Royals (75-63) are coming off two 4-game series:

• Swept by Astros in Houston (0-4)

• Nearly swept the Guardians in Cleveland (3-1)

This resulted in the Royals sneaking past the Twins to go from the #6 seed #5 in the American League.

MLB Playoff Bracket: NL

There was no movement in the National League playoff picture in the last week.

ICYMI: Bookit’s New CFB Show

“Bookit Sports” is spinning up its own CFB podcast show.

They all chose Clemson to win against Georgia.

Georgia won the game 34-3.

As we conclude the 7th edition of Building Bankroll, we only ask one thing:

Whether it’s betting thoughts on Florida State versus Boston College tonight or the insane amount of money New York made off sports bettors, don’t let your fellow bettors miss out.

Quiz Answer: Sports betting is legal in 38 states, plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. Forbes reports that online betting is live in 30 of those states, with 22 also offering legal betting through tribal gaming compacts.