Today's Slate

• Optimizing Your Bet Sizing

  • Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

  • MNF Betting Preview: Saints vs. Packers

  • Christmas Week Slate

  • Slip of the Week

Optimizing Your Bet Sizing

Ever wondered how pros decide exactly how much to put on a bet, without risking too much of their bankroll?

One of the most common strategies is the Kelly Criterion; aimed at helping bettors hit the risk/reward sweet spot on each bet.

The Kelly Criterion

Think of it as the sweet spot between betting too little (and missing out on profit) and betting too much (and risking a chunk of your bankroll).

Kelly gives you a precise fraction (unit) of your bankroll to wager based on your perceived edge.

Quick Example

You spot +150 odds and estimate a 40% chance of winning:

• P = 0.40

• A = 150

Kelly Fraction = 0

This suggests a “no bet” if you only trust a 40% probability.

But if your confidence rises—say to 45%—the formula would advise staking 8.33% of your bankroll.

• $1,000 bankroll x 8.33% = $83.30

Why The Pros Use Kelly

• Discipline: Avoid random big bets.

• Efficiency: Grow your bankroll steadily instead of riding wild swings.

• Edge Maximization: Bet more when you truly see value. Bet less (or not at all) when you don’t

The main objective of sports betting (for most) is to win money over the long term.

The Kelly Criterion (and similar strategies) are used because they help take some of the emotion out of betting.

It’s Not Perfect

Kelly is only as good as your (or someone else’s) probability estimates.

If you overestimate your edge, you’ll bet too big.

Underestimate it, and you might play it too safe.

Even if your estimates aren’t perfect (they never will be), the idea here is that you’re being consistent.

Why You Should Care

The Kelly Criterion isn’t a magic bullet, but it brings a solid approach to sizing your bets.

The next time you’re about to place a bet, think about it.

You can plug in the odds, your estimate, and your bankroll, and any Kelly Criterion Calculator will spit out a number.

By consistently sizing your bets with any strategy, you’ll be better positioned to build that bankroll over the long haul.

Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

Last Week:

• Jeremiyah Love 2H TD (+135) 👎

• Kirk Cousins u0.5 INT (+100) 👎

• Michael Porter Jr. 3+ Threes (+100) 👎

• Riley Leonard u26.5 Pass Attempts (-110) 👎

Overall Record: 20-29 | -8.76u 🥶

Rizzi came out and said that the RB situation will be a committee approach with Williams, Mims, and Miller.

The Packers are also heavy favorites here and the game script bodes in our favor if the game gets out of hand and the Saints are forced to throw early.

Cold weather tonight will also work against the Saints since they’re used to playing in the dome.

Clock management is another factor late if GB gets ahead which I think they will in this smash spot.

Give me the under!

McManus averages ~8 kicking points in each game, but has hit 12 multiple times this season.

He’s an accurate kicker who should get plenty of opportunities tonight.

MNF Betting Preview: Saints vs. Packers

The New Orleans Saints (5-9) are set to face the Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Lambeau Field for a frosty Monday Night Football clash.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET, and the Packers are hefty 14.5-point favorites.

With the Saints struggling and the Packers cruising, this game could be a one-sided affair, but let's dig deeper to find the best betting angles.

Team Analysis

New Orleans Saints

The Saints' offense is in shambles, missing key players Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, and Chris Olave to name just a few.

Rookie QB Spencer Rattler showed some promise in relief last week, but the team is averaging a paltry 19 points over their last five games.

Without Carr, the Saints' offensive efficiency plummets, and their 21st ranking in EPA per play (-0.027) reflects that.

The Saints' defense isn't terrible, ranking 15th in EPA per play allowed (0.005).

However, they face a daunting task against a potent Packers offense.

The Saints will need to rely on their defense to keep the game within reach.

The Saints are struggling with injuries - severely limiting their offensive options and puts immense pressure on Rattler to perform.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are firing on all cylinders, with Jordan Love leading an offense that has scored 30+ points in four straight games.

They rank 8th in EPA per play (0.090), and their balanced attack will test the Saints' defense.

Green Bay's defense is a top-10 unit, ranking 8th in DVOA.

They've been stout against weaker opponents, and the Saints' depleted offense should struggle to find success.

The Packers have some question marks in the secondary, with Jaire Alexander and Corey Ballentine questionable.

However, their depth should suffice against a weakened Saints receiving corps.

Betting Insights

The Packers are 14-point favorites, a massive line that reflects the disparity between these teams.

While Green Bay is 3-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Matt LaFleur, the Saints' current form makes it hard to back them for just two touchdowns.

The total is set at 44.5, and the Under looks appealing.

The Saints have hit the Under in four of their last five games, and the Packers' defense should stifle New Orleans' offense.

Cold weather could further limit scoring.

The Bottom Line

The Packers are in a different league compared to the Saints, and this game should showcase that.

The Saints' offensive woes and the Packers' strong defense suggest a low-scoring and potentially boring Monday Night game.

Additionally, Green Bay's methodical approach in cold weather games often leads to lower totals.

Christmas Week Slate

We’ve got a busy week ahead - Here are the ones you’ll want to keep an eye on.

Monday, December 23

11:00am

🏆 Coastal Carolina vs UTSA

• UTSA -10.5

• O/U: 55.5

2:30pm

🏆 NIU vs Fresno State

• NIU -3.5

• O/U: 39.5

8:15pm

🏈 New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

• GB -14

• O/U: 42.5

Tuesday, December 24 (Christmas Eve)

8:00pm

🏆 South Florida vs San José State

• SJSU -3.5

• O/U: 62.5

Wednesday, December 25 (Christmas Day)

12:00pm

⛹ San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

• NY -8.5

• O/U: 225.5

1:00pm

🏈 Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers

2:30pm

⛹ Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks

• DAL -2.5

• O/U: 226.5

4:30pm

🏈 Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texas

8:00pm

⛹ LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors

• GS -3.5

• O/U: 231.5

Thursday, December 26

2:00pm

🏆 Pittsburgh vs Toledo

• PITT -6.5

• O/U: 51.5

5:30pm

🏆 Rutgers vs Kansas State

• KSU -6.5

• O/U: 49.5

8:15pm

🏈 Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

Friday, December 27

12:00pm

🏆 Oklahoma vs Navy

• OU -3

• O/U: 43.5

3:30pm

🏆 Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt

• GT -3

• O/U: 51.5

7:00pm

🏆 Texas Tech vs Arkansas

• ARK -1.5

• O/U: 53.5

8:00pm

🏆 Syracuse²¹ vs Washington State

• SYR -15.5

• O/U: 59.5

10:30pm

🏆 USC vs Texas A&M

• TA&M -3

• O/U: 51.5

Saturday, December 28

11:00am

🏆 UConn @ North Carolina

• UNC -3

• O/U: 53.5

12:00pm

🏆 Boston College vs Nebraska

• NEB -2.5

• O/U: 45.5

1:00pm

🏈 Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

2:00pm

🏀 Ole Miss¹⁷ @ Memphis²¹

3:30pm

🏆 Iowa State¹⁸ vs Miami¹³

• MIA -3

• O/U: 55.5

4:00pm

🏀 UCLA¹⁸ vs Gonzaga¹³

4:30pm

🏈 Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals

5:45pm

🏆 East Carolina vs NC State

• NCSU -6

• O/U: 58.5

7:30pm

🏆 BYU¹⁷ vs Colorado²³

• COLO -5

• O/U: 54.5

8:00pm

🏈 Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Slip of the Week