In this issue

• The CFP Quarterfinals are Finally Here.

  • Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

  • Betting Breakdowns for the CFP Quarterfinals

    • Boise State vs Penn State

    • Arizona State vs Texas

    • Oregon vs Ohio State

    • Georgia vs Notre Dame

  • The Only Sportsbook You Need In 2025

  • Slip of the Week

The CFP Quarterfinals are Finally Here.

In 2 days we’ll be in 2025, and the stage will be set for the Semifinal round of the College Football Playoffs.

But first, we’ll watch 4 quarterfinals matchups that are looking to be some of the best football we’ve seen all season.

And we’ve seen a lot of good football.

In case you forgot - here’s how the first round of the CFP looked:

• No. 7 Notre Dame def. No. 10 Indiana | 27-17

• No. 6 Penn State def. No. 11 SMU | 38-10

• No. 5 Texas def. No. 12 Clemson | 38-24

• No. 8 Ohio State def. No. 9 Tennessee | 42-17

CFP Quarterfinals Matchups

All times Eastern / All games on ESPN

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31

• Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State | 7:30pm

  • PSU -12 (opening lines)

  • O/U: 53.5 (opening lines)

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1

• Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas | 1:00pm

  • TEX -12.5

  • O/U: 51.5

• Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State | 5:00pm

  • OSU -2.5

  • O/U: 55.5

• Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame | 8:45pm

  • UGA -1.5

  • O/U: 44.5

We’ll give a preview of each matchup right after the final picks of 2024.

Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

Last Week: +1.1u

• Kendre Miller u12.5 Rush Attempts (+100) ✅

• Saints Spread/Under Teaser (-110) ❌

• Brandon McManus o8.5 Kicking Points (+110) ✅

Overall Record: 22-30 | -7.66u

While Georgia’s defense is one of the top in the country, ND and Riley Leonard have the weapons to exploit weaknesses that we’ve already seen.

In a game that will likely be a defensive battle throughout, Notre Dame’s ability to force turnovers and control the clock should be enough to win this one outright.

• Even with a recent injury to DL Rylie Mills, I’m slightly surprised the Irish aren’t favored in this one.

Penn State is well-equipped to exploit Boise State’s defensive weaknesses, particularly in the secondary.

While it’s easier said than done, Penn State’s top 5 defense should be able to contain Jeanty better than most.

With the Nittany Lions full-strength squad and their knack for setting the pace, establishing a commanding lead by halftime isn’t out of the question.

They are comfortable with the short passes and making tackles when they need to.

Playing primarily zone, let’s hope the Niners can limit Goff in the red zone.

The Niners have been susceptible to the run in the red zone so I fully expect Gibbs or the other backs to get their touches in the RZ.

Despite their below average defense in the RZ, they still rank 7th in PTD’s allowed. Their scheme makes opposing QB’s think twice before throwing it the Niners way 😅

Being called a “meaningless” game should only piss this Niners defense off whose unit still has most of their pieces intact.

• Look for them to make some noise against Goff.

Give us the Under that’s due and we’ll happily continue to fade the public 🤝

Betting Breakdowns for the CFP Quarterfinals

Boise State³ vs Penn State⁶

Tuesday, Dec. 31 / 7:30pm / Glendale, AZ

• Penn State -10.5 (line at time of publishing)

• O/U: 52.5 (line at time of publishing)

The line has swung 2 points in favor of Boise State, which I’m really not too surprised by.

Total dropped by a single point.

Game Overview

Penn State's comprehensive strength across the board definitely gives them the edge in this matchup.

While Ashton Jeanty is a game-changer for Boise State, the Nittany Lions' defense is well-equipped to contain him.

At least as well as you can contain a guy like Jeanty.

Expect Penn State to leverage their superior talent in the trenches to control the game tempo and exploit Boise State's defensive vulnerabilities.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Quarterback Drew Allar is having is best season yet, throwing for over 3,000 yards with a 68.5% completion rate.

His dual-threat capability is complemented by a dynamic backfield featuring Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who have combined for over 1,800 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns this year.

Tight end Tyler Warren, a Heisman vote-getter, adds a receiving threat with 1,095 yards and six touchdowns.

The Nittany Lions' defense is a fortress, ranking #5 nationally in points allowed.

Abdul Carter leads a fearsome front with 11 sacks, while the secondary, anchored by Jaylen Reed, is adept at creating turnovers.

• The Nittany Lion defense has 15 Interceptions and 8 Forced Fumbles this year

There are no significant injuries reported, allowing Penn State to field a full-strength squad.

Boise State Broncos

The Broncos' attack is spearheaded by running back Ashton Jeanty, who is on the cusp of breaking Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record.

• Jeanty is currently 132 rush yards from this record

Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been efficient all season long, with a 22:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and targets like Cam Camper provide reliable options downfield.

• Camper averages 64.4 YPG and has 4 TDs on the season

Boise State's defense excels in pass rush, ranking third in sack rate.

Jayden Virgin and Ahmed Hassanein are sack machines (18.5 combined), but the secondary has been porous, ranking 113th against the pass.

• The defense has taken 7 Interceptions this season, with 13 Forced Fumbles.

The Broncos enter the game relatively healthy, with no major injury concerns.

Betting Insights

Spread

The line has moved slightly in Boise State's favor, but Penn State's balanced attack and stout defense make them worthy of the 10.5-point spread.

• The Nittany Lions have covered in five of their last six games as favorites

• Boise State has covered the spread in 3 of their last 6 games, and are 7-5 ATS on the season.

Total Points

The over/under has dipped to 52.5, but with both teams capable of explosive plays, the over remains enticing.

• Both offenses rank in the top 12 in the country in terms of scoring.

• Penn State's recent games have consistently hit the over, while Boise State’s last 3 games went under.

Player Props

Ashton Jeanty is certainly the player to watch in this one.

He’s -200 to score a touchdown, and Boise State should utilize him heavily throughout the entire game.

However, with the exception of Oregon, this Penn State front is unlike any Boise State has seen this season.

That said, Jeanty went for 192 Rush Yards and 3 TDs against the Ducks.

Prediction & Betting Thoughts

I think Boise State matches up better against the Nittany Lions than SMU, although that may not be saying much.

The key to this game is the Boise State defense.

It will be difficult for the Broncos to keep pace with the Penn State offense, so the burden rests with the defense.

If they can manage multiple turnover, it should give the Broncos’ offense enough opportunity to outscore Allar and the Penn State offense.

Leaning on the Broncos to cover 10.5 points and the Over in this one.

Arizona State⁴ vs Texas⁵

Wednesday, Jan. 1 / 1:00pm / Atlanta, GA

• Texas -11.5

• O/U: 51.5

Nothing major to note with line movement so far, total stays the same and a 1 point swing in ASU’s favor.

Game Overview

Both teams are riding high after impressive victories, but only one can continue their College Football Playoff journey.

Texas' combination of offensive firepower and defensive prowess gives them the edge in this matchup.

The key for Texas will be maintaining discipline and avoiding turnovers, especially from quarterback Quinn Ewers, whose decision-making has been under scrutiny.

On the flip side, Arizona State's hopes rest heavily on the shoulders of Cam Skattebo.

If the Sun Devils can establish the run early and keep the Texas defense honest, they might be able to keep the game closer than expected.

Texas Longhorns

Quarterback Quinn Ewers leads a potent Texas offense, boasting 2,867 passing yards and 26 touchdowns on the season.

Despite some inconsistency, Ewers has the weapons to exploit Arizona State's defense, particularly with receivers like Matthew Golden, who has 787 yards and eight touchdowns.

The ground game, led by Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, is averaging 173.5 rushing yards per game.

Texas' defense is a juggernaut, ranking seventh in EPA per rush and eighth in yards allowed per carry.

Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and defensive lineman Colin Simmons anchor a unit that excels in both pass rush and run defense.

Wisner's leg injury suffered against Clemson is still a small concern, but with Blue recently stepping up, the Longhorns have depth in the backfield.

Arizona State Sun Devils

The Sun Devils' offense revolves around running back Cam Skattebo, who has amassed over 2,000 total yards.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt complements the run-heavy attack, but with top receiver Jordyn Tyson out, the passing game may struggle against Texas' stout defense.

• Jordyn Tyson this season: 75 REC / 1,101 YDS / 10 TD

Arizona State's defense is solid against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.

However, their pass defense ranks 70th in success rate, which could be problematic against Texas' aerial attack.

The absence of Jordyn Tyson is a significant blow, putting more pressure on Skattebo and Leavitt to carry the offense.

Betting Insights

Spread

Texas is favored by 11.5 points, and while Arizona State has been a strong underdog this season, the Longhorns' talent and depth make them a compelling pick to cover.

Texas has struggled as double-digit favorites recently, but their dominant win over Clemson suggests they're peaking at the right time.

Total Points

The over/under is set at 51.5, and with both teams capable of scoring, the over is worth considering.

Arizona State's games have frequently hit the over, and Texas' offense can exploit the Sun Devils' defensive weaknesses.

Player Props

Cam Skattebo's rushing yards are a key prop to watch.

While he's been a workhorse, Texas' defense is well-equipped to limit his impact, making the under on his rushing total an intriguing option.

Prediction & Betting Thoughts

While Arizona State's Cinderella story is compelling, the Longhorns' ability to control the trenches and exploit the Sun Devils' defensive vulnerabilities should lead to a decisive victory for the Longhorns.

Texas has had its ups and downs this year, and when they’re on, they’re ON.

But I’m not very confident in them to cover in this one.

ASU has had more rest, extra time to prepare, and have already proved they can win on the big stage this season.

Texas failed to cover the spread (and lost SU) in both games against Georgia, and is a meager 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.

With loads of offensive firepower on both sides, I’m a big fan of the Over in this one.

I’ll be sprinkling Arizona State ML, with a little more on +11.5.

Oregon¹ vs Ohio State⁸

Wednesday, Jan. 1 / 5:00pm / Glendale, AZ

• Ohio State -2

• O/U: 55.5

No notable line movement so far.

Game Overview

The Rose Bowl is set to be a thrilling rematch between the Oregon Ducks and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Oregon, riding high with a perfect 13-0 record and a Big Ten championship, faces an Ohio State team that rebounded from a late-season slip against Michigan to dominate Tennessee in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

With both teams boasting elite talent, this game has all the makings of a classic.

Oregon Ducks

The Ducks' offense is led by Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel, who has been electric with a 77.8% completion rate.

Running back Jordan James adds a powerful ground game, averaging 110.4 yards per game.

Oregon's defense, while strong, has shown vulnerabilities, particularly against the run.

The return of pass-rusher Jordan Burch should bolster their efforts against Ohio State's potent offense.

• Dillon Gabriel: 1,449 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT

• Jordan James: 552 YDS, 5 TD, 110.4 YPG

• Tez Johnson: 43 REC, 395 YDS, 5 TD

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State's offense is a well-oiled machine, led by quarterback Will Howard and a dynamic receiving duo in Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.

The Buckeyes' defense is the best in the nation, allowing just 11.3 points per game.

Anchored by Jack Sawyer and Sonny Styles, they excel in both pass rush and coverage, making them a nightmare for opposing offenses.

• Will Howard: 1,248 YDS, 12 TD, 3 INT

• Jeremiah Smith: 23 REC, 453 YDS, 6 TD

• Quinshon Judkins: 468 YDS, 5 TD, 93.6 YPG

Betting Insights

Spread

Ohio State is favored by 2 points, which came as a bit of a surprise to me.

On the field, Oregon has been the best team in the country this year.

I have a feeling this game will be extremely similar to the first matchup between these two teams.

Betting either side of this line isn’t easy.

Total Points

The over/under is set at 55.5, and with both teams capable of lighting up the scoreboard, the over is an attractive option.

The previous meeting was a high-scoring affair, and similar conditions could lead to another shootout.

Ohio State’s stout defense matches up well against Oregon’s offense - Whichever side wins this battle will likely advance to the next round.

Player Props

Dillon Gabriel's passing yards are a key prop to watch.

While he had success in the first meeting (341 Pass Yards), Ohio State's defense is formidable, and I’m guessing they’ll have a better plan in place for this game.

Prediction & Betting Thoughts

This clash is set to be a nail-biter, with both teams bringing elite talent and high stakes to the field.

Ohio State's defense, the best in the nation, will be the key to their success.

While Oregon's offense is potent, the Ducks' defense has shown vulnerabilities that Ohio State is well-equipped to exploit.

The Buckeyes' ability to control the game on both sides of the ball gives them a slight edge in this matchup.

Despite that, I’m on the Ducks in this matchup.

I mentioned above that Oregon has looked like the best team in the country on the field this year, and Ohio State hasn’t.

Taking the Ducks ML at +145.

Georgia² vs Notre Dame⁷

Wednesday, Jan. 1 / 8:45pm / New Orleans, LA

• Georgia -1

• O/U: 44.5

No notable line movement so far.

Game Overview

Georgia, with an 11-2 record, has had a rollercoaster season, marked by impressive wins and a few stumbles.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame has bounced back from an early-season loss to Northern Illinois, winning 10 straight games and beating the Hoosiers in the First Round of the College Football Playoff.

Both teams are known for their defensive prowess, setting the stage for a gritty battle in New Orleans.

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia's season has been a tale of ups and downs, with quarterback Carson Beck's inconsistency being a focal point.

Beck's recent UCL surgery means backup Gunner Stockton will lead the offense.

Stockton had a mediocre performance against Texas in the SEC Championship, throwing for 71 yards and one interception.

The Bulldogs' rushing attack has been underwhelming, ranking 118th in yards per successful rush.

Nate Frazier and Trevor Etienne are a capable 1-2 punch, combining for 17 TDs on the season.

Defensively, Georgia is strong but has shown vulnerabilities in the trenches.

They gave up 42 points to Georgia Tech early in the season, 31 to Mississippi State in Week 8, and 41 against the Crimson Tide.

• Carson Beck: 3,458 YDS, 28 TD, 12 INT

• Gunner Stockton: 25/32 206 YDS, 0 TD, 1 INT

• Defensive Rank: 11th in SP+*, but 80th in power success rate

^{*SP+ measures team performance by efficiency, explosiveness, and strength of schedule.}

Key Injuries

• Carson Beck - OUT

• Colbie Young - Questionable (suspension)

• Christen Miller - Questionable

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame officially ruled Rylie Mills (DL) out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, leaving the Irish defense with a big void before their biggest game of the season.

Notre Dame's strength lies in their elite secondary, which ranks first nationally in passing success rate.

However, their run defense has been inconsistent, and injuries on the defensive line will pose additional challenges against Georgia.

Offensively, the Irish rely heavily on their run game, led by Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love.

• Love is the only player in college football with a touchdown in every game this season

Expect the ND offense to rely on the run game early and often.

• Riley Leonard: 3,351 TOTAL YDS, 17 PTD, 15 RTD, 6 INT

• Jeremiyah Love: 1,057 YDS, 16 TD

• Xavier Watts: 6 INT, 1 TD, 6 PD, 1 FF

Defensive Rank: 1st in passing success rate, but 128th in stuff rate

Key Injuries

• Rylie Mills - OUT

• Benjamin Morrison - OUT

• Boubacar Traore - OUT

Betting Insights

Spread

Georgia is favored by a single point, reflecting the tight nature of this matchup.

With both teams having strong defenses and question marks on offense, the spread might as well be a pick ‘em.

• Georgia is 3-9 ATS this season, and 1-9 ATS as favorites.

• Notre Dame is 10-2 ATS this season, 1-0 ATS as underdogs, and 9-2 ATS as favorites.

Total Points

The over/under is set at 44.5, the lowest out of the 4 quarterfinal matchups.

With both teams boasting top defenses and limited offensive firepower, the under is still pretty appealing.

I’m expecting a low-scoring affair with both teams leaning on the ground game.

Player Props

Jeremiyah Love's rushing yards are a key prop to watch.

With Notre Dame's reliance on the run, Love will be central to their game plan.

I’m also a fan of ND’s RB2 - Jadarian Price.

Price might be third-wheel to Love and Leonard, but he’s seen more and more action as the season comes to a close.

• Last 3 Games: 33 CAR, 196 YDS, 3 TD

Price has explosive speed and is capable of taking any defense for a 20-50 yard gain.

His rush yard line sits at 29.5, but I’ll be playing 50+ (+300/bet365) and Anytime TD (+425/MGM).

Prediction & Betting Thoughts

This Sugar Bowl matchup is likely a defensive slugfest, with both teams struggling to move the ball consistently.

Georgia's quarterback situation with Gunner Stockton adds uncertainty to their offensive output, while Notre Dame's reliance on the run could be stifled by Georgia's defense.

Notre Dame's elite secondary will challenge Stockton, and if they can force turnovers, the Irish have a path to victory.

However, Georgia's defense is capable of containing Notre Dame's run game, making it difficult for the Irish to establish their preferred offensive rhythm.

If the Irish struggle to put up points, they won’t advance to the next round.

• Notre Dame scored only 14 points in the loss to NIU - They scored at least 23 points in every other game this season.

I’m leaning toward Notre Dame to cover the +1 spread, and taking the Irish to win outright.

With Carson Beck this would be a completely different ballgame - but Stockton is being thrust onto a big stage without much notice, against one of the best defenses in the country.

Under 44.5 also feels like a solid bet.

This has all the makings of a ground-and-pound, smash the other team’s face in matchup.

I’m anticipating less than 20 points for each time.

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Slip of the Week

Zach Ertz SNF Touchdowns: 2 🎯

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