- Building Bankroll
- Posts
- Issue #71
This Week…
This Week’s Betting Picks
Last Week: 1-4 | -2.89u
Tyjae Spears Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110) ❌ | The UNDERground Lab
South Carolina ML (-134) ❌ / Locksmith
0.5u: Vanderbilt ML (+122) ✅ / Locksmith
Michigan +10.5 (-122) ❌ / Locksmith
0.5u: Maryland ML (-110) ❌ / Locksmith
2025 Record: 71-57 | +14.33u
We’ve cashed these before predicting bounce back spots for QB’s to play a cleaner game.
This will be a point of emphasis for the Vikings given how bad their QB play has been.
O’Connell said it, “It’s purely about decision-making at this point.
I want him to have a clear head and a clear mind to just go play, but play with an understanding of, ‘The decisions that I make … have to be of the utmost importance.’
Because we learned our turnover number is where it is. It’s not a winning formula”.
Expect them to simplify the game plan for JJ here and there’s no better team to do that than against the Commanders who rank 24th in interceptions and are terrible in creating pressure and tight windows to create turnovers.
Not that it mattered before but neutral weather since it’s played in the dome and thats always helpful for the passing game regardless of result.
Time for his first clean game of the year and not falling for this over trap 😈
CFB Champ Week Best Bets
via On3
He is 19–10 against top-10 opponents with more wins over highly ranked teams than any active coach.
DeBoer absolutely has the recent edge head-to-head, including ending Georgia’s long home winning streak, and Alabama is 7-1 against Smart-led Georgia overall.
But that dominance is already fully priced into public perception.
The Bulldogs average more yards and points per game than Alabama, with a more balanced split between run and pass, and they own small advantages in yards per play, time of possession, and rushing efficiency.
When the analytics say the teams are virtually equal and the line only barely leans Georgia, backing their moneyline is effectively betting that Smart’s big-game experience with this core plus Georgia’s slightly sharper offensive balance is enough to finally flip one of these tight Alabama battles.
Play on NoVig at -114
In two games, he's gone for 411 yards and 4 TDs without an interception.
Western Michigan enters the MAC Championship at 8-4, and has allowed plenty of production in league play despite a solid record.
The full-game total and spread imply a reasonably competitive matchup, not a defensive slog, and Miami’s season-long scoring plus their ability to run efficiently (over 4 yards per carry with solid touchdown production on the ground) supports a path to three TDs or two TDs plus multiple scoring drives.
In a neutral-site title game (Detroit) where both offenses have functional rushing attacks and red-zone chances, 20.5 is a very reasonable bar for a team that has consistently moved the ball against MAC defenses of similar quality.
Indiana has shown that when it faces top‑tier defenses (Iowa, Oregon), its scoring tends to come later off adjustments rather than in the scripted phase.
On the other side, Ohio State’s defense has been best at exactly the things that kill early scoring: red-zone efficiency, third‑down stops, and limiting explosives in the passing game.
Both Ohio State and Indiana are comfortable slowing things down early in big spots, using motion, checks, and long snap counts to diagnose coverages and avoid early mistakes.
That shows up in their first‑half snap counts and time of possession, which skew toward longer, more deliberate drives rather than quick‑strike trading.
All of that favors a first‑half scoring distribution that clusters in the teens, making 23.5 a number that requires either a defensive bust or a special-teams splash play to get beaten cleanly.
In a high-stakes title game where both sides are cautious early and lean on defense and field position, 23.5 allows for a 13-7 type half that fits both teams’ early-game tendencies in 2025.
Texas Tech allows just 11-13 points per game and sits near the top nationally in points per play allowed, while BYU holds opponents under 20 and forces almost two turnovers per game.
Both offenses skew run-heavy (roughly 52-56 percent rush rate), sustain drives, and win time of possession, which drags down total first-half possessions even when they’re moving the ball.
The implied score from the spread and full-game total is roughly Texas Tech 31, BYU 18, which fits a game where Tech’s deeper offense eventually separates but not necessarily in a track meet from the opening kick.
Put that together and you get a realistic first-half band in the 10-17 total points for Tech and 3-7 for BYU when things are still on script and both staffs are leaning into field position and risk management.
With two top-20 defenses by points allowed and both offenses comfortable shortening the game, a 25.5 first-half total still assumes a level of early explosiveness that doesn’t match how this matchup or these teams have actually behaved in 2025.
Reply