Sports Betting Is Heating Up

Coming off an exciting weekend with the Olympics in full swing, there's finally more than just baseball to talk about.

Here’s a quick preview of what’s coming up:

• Olympic Action Recap: Catch up on how Team USA is stacking up in Paris.

• NFL Game This Week: The Hall of Fame Game is just around the corner, featuring the Texans vs. the Bears.

• Expected Value in Sports Betting: Get the lowdown on how to make smarter bets with EV.

Let’s dive into the latest updates and insights.

Olympic Wins: Team USA's Performance in Paris

The opening ceremony kicked off on July 26, and events started the next morning.

Highlights from Team USA

As mentioned in our Summer Olympics Betting Guide, the US is a heavy favorite to win the most Gold Medals (-2500).

• Synchronized Diving: Kassidy Cook and Sarah Bacon won silver.

• Cycling: Chloe Dygert secured bronze in the individual time trial.

• Swimming: Katie Ledecky won bronze in the 400m freestyle.

• Men’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay: USA won gold.

• Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay: USA won silver.

• Men’s Soccer: L (France) 0-3; W (New Zealand) 4-1

  • Next game: July 30: v. Guinea, 1 p.m.

• Men’s Basketball: Beat Serbia 110-84

  • Lebron: 21 points, 7 boards, 9 assists

  • Jrue Holiday: 15 points, 3 boards, 4 assists

  • Jokic: 20 points, 5 boards, 8 assists

  • Kevin Durant: 23 points

  • Tatum: 0 minutes played 🤯

  • Next game: July 31: v. South Sudan, 9 p.m.

• Women’s Soccer: W (Zambia) 3-0; W (Germany) 4-1

  • Next game: July 31: v. Australia, 1 p.m.

NFL Hall of Fame Game Preview

The 58th annual Hall of Fame Game takes place this week on Thursday, August 1 at 8:00 PM EST.

This year, we’ve got the Texans taking on the Bears.

Hall of Fame Inductees

Includes the induction of notable players such as Devin Hester, Steve McMichael, Julius Peppers from the Bears, and Andre Johnson from the Texans.

• Dwight Freeney (DE)

• Julius Peppers (DE)

• Devin Hester (WR/KR)

• Andre Johnson (WR)

• Randy Gradishar (LB)

• Steve McMichael (DT)

• Patrick Willis (LB)

Can You Bet On It?

Of course!

Regarding player participation, it's typical for the Hall of Fame Game to feature more rookies and backup players rather than the regular starters.

So while we probably won’t be betting on Caleb Williams or CJ Stroud, football is football.

Betting Insights for NFL Fans

Speaking of Stroud…

Bettors are buzzing with excitement as C.J. Stroud, the Texans’ rising star, emerges as a top pick for the 2024 NFL MVP.

With just over a month until the season kicks off, Stroud is the most popular MVP bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, trailing only Patrick Mahomes in odds.

Stroud posted impressive stats in his rookie season with 4,108 passing yards and 23 touchdowns.

Since opening, his MVP odds have surged from +1400 to +850.

His potential has captivated bettors, pushing him past other big names like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.

• McCaffrey has the best odds of any non-QB at +4000

• Caleb Williams (+5000) has the highest odds of any rookie, followed by Jayden Daniels (+12000)

MLB Update: Playoff Race and Upcoming Matchups

Teams have settled back in since the All-Star break, and the playoff race is heating up.

If the season ended today, here’s what the playoff picture would look like:

Matchups to Watch This Week

Yankees/Phillies kicks off with Zach Wheeler facing Luis Gil.

Wheeler is arguably one of the best pitchers in the MLB right now.

He delivers strikeouts, grounders, weak contact, minimal walks, and goes plenty of innings for the Phillies.

• Game 2: Nola v. Cole

• Game 3: Sanchez v. Cortes

As we know, Cole hasn’t been himself this year.

Don’t be surprised if the Phillies sweep. 🧹

Divisional Matchups This Week

Divisional series you’ll want to keep an eye on this week.

^{Bold = who we like to win the series}

• Yankees @ Phillies

• Blue Jays @ Orioles

• Guardians @ Tigers

• Cubs @ Reds

• Royals @ White Sox

• Marlins @ Braves

• Cardinals @ Cubs

Understanding Expected Value

A term that I’ve seen thrown around loosely.

But do you know what it means?

Expected Value, or EV, is basically the difference between what a bettor thinks will happen in a game and what the bookmakers think.

How You’ve Probably Come Across it

I see tweets like this all the time:

My honest take - most cappers just throw in “+EV” to make a bet look more enticing to tail.

However, it’s impossible to tell how they got there.

Notice how this user noted positive EV on Leon Edwards (UFC304), but he didn’t end up winning.

Finding a +EV bet means you’ve got a positive expected value, but it’s not a guaranteed win.

How to Use EV in Betting

• If a bet has a positive EV, you want to place it.

• If a bet has a negative EV, you shouldn’t place it.

Think of expected value (EV) in sports betting like a coin flip game where you bet $1.

• If the coin lands on heads, I pay you $1.05.

• If it lands on tails, I keep your dollar.

The Formula for Finding EV

• EV = (Probability of Winning*Potential Payout) – (Probability of Losing*Amount Wagered)

How we’d calculate the EV:

• EV = (0.5)*($1.05) + (0.5)*(-$1.00) = $0.025 per flip.

This means you expect to gain $0.025 for each coin flip.

So, you should keep playing this game as long as you can, since the odds are in your favor.

The Catch

Sorry to break it to you, but successfully using EV to your advantage isn’t as simple as plugging in a few numbers.

The probabilities are where it gets tricky.

Calculating Probabilities

There are two main ways to calculate probabilities: Bottom-up and Top-down.

Bottom-Up

• Creating models from scratch to calculate probabilities

Top-Down

• Assuming market accuracy and finding mispriced odds

Why EV Matters

The best bettors make a habit of finding value early in the week.

By Thursday, oddsmakers have adjusted their lines, and in an efficient market like the NFL, value bets are only available for a short time before the market catches up.

The sooner you can locate mispriced odds (positive EV), you can capitalize.

Remember, even if you find a bet with +EV it does not mean it’s guaranteed to win.

It does mean that if you keep placing +EV bets over the long term you will win more than you lose (if your calculations are accurate).

Closing Thoughts

With the Olympics starting to heat up, the slates are only going to get better.

In case you aren’t counting…

• 39 days until the NFL kicks off

• NCAAF

  • 32 days until Week 1 kicks off

  • 27 days until Week 0 kicks off

We’re assembling a little “catch-up” guide for both NFL and NCAAF bettors.

It’ll preview each team, offseason moves & changes to look out for, betting lines, and a few predictions.

Stay tuned to make sure you're ready to make the most of the upcoming seasons!👇