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Issue #31
Early NFL Player Futures, Top CBB Matchups This Week, and Super Bowl Betting Action
The Locksmith
February 17, 2025
In this issue:
Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks
Last Week: 3-1 | +1.6u
Onyeka Okongwu u13.5 Points [+100] ✅
Victor Wembanyama o24.5 Points [-125] ✅
Ian Schieffelin o2.5 Assists [-125] ✅
PrizePicks 4-Legger ❌
2025 Record: 11-10 | +0.36u 🐢
Arizona is coming off a tough home loss to an incredible team, and despite losing back-to-back games, are 7-3 in their last 10.
Baylor lost the first matchup between these two 70-81, but they’ve lost a key player since then.
Josh Ojianwuna's season-ending injury in early February has thinned Baylor's front-court, something that Arizona will certainly plan to attack.
Ojianwuna vs Arizona on 1/14: 36 MIN / 8 PTS / 6 REB / 2 STL / 1 BLK
Playing in Waco against a strong Baylor team shouldn’t be overlooked, but I like Arizona to win this game and was happy to get plus odds.
During his last encounter against Arizona on January 14th, Edgecombe logged 35 minutes on the court, shooting 2-7 from beyond the arc.
Even as a true freshman he has the green light, and Arizona's up-tempo play style creates a very favorable environment for Edgecombe.
Way Too Early NFL SZN Futures
The NFL season might be months away, but the betting markets are already heating up.
If you're looking to get ahead of the game, now's the time to scan player futures for potential value.
We've highlighted some of the most notable lines across passing, rushing, and receiving categories.
Quarterback Passing Yards
DraftKings, ESPNBet, bet365, and PrizePicks currently offer a range of players in this market
Jared Goff (DET): 4,224.5 yards
Goff has quietly been stacking up impressive stats.
With Detroit's offense on the rise, there's potential value in this line if he maintains last season's momentum.
He has hit this line each of the past 3 years, with this lowest passing yards in that stretch being 4,438 yards in the 2022 season.
Joe Burrow (CIN): 4,174.5 yards
With targets like Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and rising star Chase Brown at his disposal, Burrow hitting this over isn’t a long shot.
However, Burrow’s health will be a key factor here. If he plays a full season I like his chances, but injury concerns do make this a more risky play.
In the 3 seasons that Joe Burrow has played 16+ games, he has cleared this line.
Caleb Williams (CHI): 3,449.5 yards
The No. 1 overall pick racked up 3,541 pass yards last season, with 20 Pass TDs and 6 INT to go along with that.
He was relatively unpredictable in some matchups, and was generally overshadowed this past season by the play of Jayden Daniels.
But he has the weapons, talent, and opportunity to do at least what he did last season.
Jack Fox (DET): 0.5 yards
Yes, Jack Fox is a punter.
He’ll be entering his 6th season in the NFL, all with the Detroit Lions.
Believe it or not, he has 61 Pass Yards in that time.
Dan Campbell is known for aggressive play calling, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Fox gets a few passes of this season.
But I probably wouldn’t bet the house on it.
Rushing Yards
PrizePicks has the best offerings as of publication, with DK, ESPNBet, and bet365 only offering Saquon TDs
Saquon Barkley (PHI): 1,499.5 Yards
Obviously we have to touch on this guy.
While this past season was the first that Saquon went over this line, he cleared it by 505 Yards.
For context, the next two highest rushing yard lines are Derrick Henry & Bijan Robinson - both set at 1249.5 yards
The only question is how Saquon will show up his record-breaking season.
Derrick Henry (BAL): 1,249.5 Yards
Henry took a similar path as Saquon this season; he went to a new team, and produced some of the best work in his career.
He rushed for 1,921 yards in his first season with the Ravens, nearly topping his career high of 2,027 set in 2020.
It’s hard to imagine that the Ravens will flip their offensive script next season.
Just remember that King Henry is entering his 10th season in the NFL.
Bucky Irving (TB): 1,074.5 Yards
Irving is a young spark plug, on an offensive that is blanketed in star power.
He hit 1,122 yards in his rookie season, and he’s primed for a bigger workload next season.
His biggest competition in the backfield is Rachaad White, a primarily-receiving back who surrendered some of his workload to Irving last season.
R. White without Bucky (2023): 272 carries, 990 yards, 70 targets
R. White with Bucky (2024): 144 carries, 613 yards, 57 targets
Passing Touchdowns
DraftKings, ESPNBet, bet365, and PrizePicks offer a range of players
Lamar Jackson (BAL): 28.5 TDs
This is tough line to bet, given his career high is 41 (2024) and he has only surpassed this year’s line one other time in his career (2019).
The addition of Henry expanded the field in favor of Lamar’s arm, and it paid off last season.
But let’s be honest - Lamar is a quarterback who loves to use his legs, which could have a big impact here.
If you think the Ravens offense will continue the style and dominance of the 2024 season, the Over might be for you.
Joe Burrow (CIN): 34 TDs
With a stacked receiving corps, Burrow leading the league in TD passes is a real possibility.
The next 3 highest Pass TD lines:
Jared Goff (29.5) / Baker Mayfield & Lamar Jackson (28.5)
Burrow had a career high 43 Pass TDs in 2024, reigning in 34 and 35 in his other healthy seasons.
If the Cincinnati O-line can hold up, the Over feels like a safe bet here.
Jalen Hurts (PHI): 19.5 TDs
Known for his dual-threat nature, Hurts holds the second lowest total in this category across NFL QBs.
Bryce Young (CAR): 18.5 Pass TDs
Receiving Yards
PrizePicks is the only sportsbook currently offering a range of props
Justin Jefferson (MIN): 1,374.5 yards
The electrifying Viking is always a prime candidate for offensive player of the year, making the over appealing.
Jefferson didn’t have his best season last year, but he still hauled in 10 TDs and 1,533 yards.
Outside of the 2023 season where he missed 7 total games due to injury, he has surpassed this line every year in the NFL.
Puka Nacua (LAR): 1,324.5 Yards
After a breakout rookie season, expectations remain high after Nacua’s injury-ridden 2024.
Cooper Kupp will be 32 when the 2025 NFL season kicks off, and he has only played in 33 games since the 2021 season.
Puka seems primed to be the true No. 1 receiver on a potent Rams offense, and this line feels like Puka’s floor.
Malik Nabers (NYG): 1,174.5 Yards
This rookie WR is electric, but will he have the QB play to support a 1,200-yard season?
That’s the big unknown in New York.
And while most are speculating that the Giants will take a QB with their 3rd overall pick, it doesn’t mean Nabers is certain to hit this line.
He posted 1,204 yards in his rookie season, but there’s a few too many unknown’s to like the Over here.
Receiving TDs
PrizePicks is the only sportsbook currently offering a range of props
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN): 10.5 TDs
Chase is the focal point of Cincy’s red-zone strategy, making double-digit TDs a strong possibility for this year’s season.
While some would consider Tee Higgins a threat to this line, but the numbers don’t necessarily back that up.
When Tee Higgins scored a career-high 10 Receiving TDs last season, Chase pulled in 17.
Tee Higgins in 2024: 109 tgts / 73 rec / 911 yards
Ja’Marr Chase 2024: 175 tgts / 127 rec / 1,708 yards
Ja'Marr Chase is one of (if not the) best receiver in the NFL, and it takes a lot of confidence to fade this guy.
Brock Bowers (LV): 5.5 TDs
Rookie tight ends typically struggle, but Bowers hauled in 112 receptions for 1,194 yards and 5 TDs last season.
Now the Raiders hold the No. 6 overall pick in the NFL draft, and are likely to bring someone new into the QB for the 2025 season.
I see this line as conservative for now - Bowers arguably has a higher ceiling next season as key red-zone weapon for Vegas.
If they can make a move a bring in a quality QB, I see this line jumping 1-2 TDs before the season kicks off.
Rushing TDs
PrizePicks has the best offerings as of publication, with DK, ESPNBet, and bet365 only offering Saquon TDs
Jalen Hurts (PHI): 12.5 TDs
Hurts has gone Over this line in his past 3 seasons, and until teams learn how to stop the “Tush Push”, I simply don’t see Hurts not hitting double digits.
Even with the addition of Saquon Barkley (13 TDs), Hurts found the endzone 14 times last season.
Hurts holds the highest line for Rush TDs at this time, with Saquon Barkley & Derrick Henry playing for runner-up at 11.5 each
Josh Allen (BUF): 9.5 TDs
Allen tallied 15 Rush TDs in the 2023 season, following it up with 12 last season.
He can break out for a long run, bear down for a “Tush Push” variant, and throw the ball 60 yards.
The only question here - will Buffalo limit his runs to keep him healthy?
Non-QB Lines
We’ve got a few “unique” Rush TD options this off-season…
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua put up 3 Rush TDs in each of his first 2 NFL seasons (2020/2021), and 0 since then
Xavier Worthy: 3 Rush TDs last season
Jared Goff: 2 Rush TDs in 2023, with 0 in 2021, 2022, and 2024. Might be due?
Puka Nacua: Scored 1 Rush TD last season (11 games), but 0 in his rookie season (17 games)
Ceedee Lamb: 3 career Rush TDs, but none last season
Jameson Williams: 0 Rush TDs in his rookie season, but 1 in each season since then (2 total)
5 NFL Player Futures I’ve Already Locked In
Finding value in player futures is all about identifying lines that might move as the season approaches.
The 5 player futures I’ve already locked in:
Jameson Williams OVER 0.5 Rush TDs
Caleb Williams OVER 3,449.5 Pass Yards
Josh Jacobs OVER 0.5 Rec. TDs
Brock Bowers OVER 5.5 Rec. TDs
Lamar Jackson UNDER 28.5 Pass TDs
Final Thoughts
Early betting comes with risk - Players could suffer offseason injuries, decide to hold out for a better contract early in the season, get traded, and so on.
But it can also provide some of the best value before lines adjust.
We are still 198 days from the NFL season kicking off, and sportsbooks will continue to put out additional markets and lines.
Stay locked in as we track new lines and look for hidden value before the market catches on.
College Hoops: Matchups to Watch This Week
Monday | 02/17
Arizona Wildcats @ Baylor Bears | 10:00pm EST | ESPN
Baylor -1.5
O/U: 151.5
Norchad Omier is shooting an impressive 55.5% from the field, leading the Baylor offense with 15.7 PPG.
The Wildcats have struggled in tight games this season, and are 0-2 in games decided by 3 points or less.
Tuesday | 02/18
Purdue Boilermakers @ Michigan State Spartans | 7:00pm | Peacock 🤢
Michigan State -3.5
O/U: 148.5
Forward Trey Kaufman-Renn leads the team with 19.4 PPG and 6.3 RPG, providing an inside presence that doesn’t quite make up for the loss of Zach Edey.
Michigan State is coming off a big win against Illinois, but are 2-3 in their previous 5 matchups.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | 7:00pm | SEC Network
Mississippi St -3.5
O/U: 143.5
A&M has one of the top defenses in the SEC and in country, allowing an average of 65.4 PPG.
Mississippi tends to struggle in games that they give up double-digit three-points; something the Aggies will likely look to convert on.
Wednesday | 02/19
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Missouri Tigers | 9:00pm | SEC Network
Alabama is undoubtedly one of the top teams in the country, ranking first in Rebounds per game and PPG.
Missouri hosts a fast-paced offense that averages almost 83 PPG, but ranks 222nd in the country in rebounding. They need to lock down on D to have a chance in this one.
Friday | 02/21
Michigan State Spartans @ Michigan Wolverines | 8:00pm | FOX
The Spartans are 5-2 against the spread in road games, demonstrating their capability to perform well and cover spreads away from home.
Michigan has struggled against the spread this season (0-5 in L5), and but may have the offensive edge in this one.
Saturday | 02/22
Tennessee Volunteers @ Texas A&M Aggies | 12:00pm | ESPN
Tennessee has been strong all season long, despite some tough losses to high-ranking teams.
While not a high-scoring team, their balanced attack and depth make them formidable throughout the entire game.
Iowa State Cyclones @ Houston Cougars | 2:00pm | ESPN
Houston’s 21-4 record reflects their dominance, led by L.J. Cryer (14.3 PPG) and J’Wan Roberts (6.4 RPG).
Iowa State will aim to leverage transitional plays and force turnovers to disrupt Houston’s flow.
Curtis Jones leads the Cyclones with 17.6 PPG, while Joshua Jefferson dominates the boards with 7.9 RPG.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 6:00pm | ESPN
Kentucky will rely on Oweh’s scoring and Williams’s rebounding to keep the game close.
Grant Nelson showed out in their last matchup, dropping 25 points and 11 boards.
Super Bowl LIX Betting Highlights
This year’s Super Bowl saw record-breaking betting activity across the U.S.
How Different States Stacked Up
The New Jersey sportsbooks led the charge with a staggering $168.7M in wagers, marking a 19% boost from last year.
Their sportsbooks enjoyed a 3x increase in net win to $25.2M with nearly 18% hold.
Hold % is the portion of total money wagered (the handle) that a sportsbook retains as profit after paying out winning bets. It reflects the sportsbook's profitability and effectiveness in managing bet placements.
Nevada, despite a decrease in handle, set a record of $22M in winnings with a 14.6% hold.
Meanwhile, New York flexed its degeneracy with a $47.4M revenue on a 30.6% hold, outshining all competitors.
Despite a high handle of $101.5M, Pennsylvania sportsbooks faced a $6.5M loss, as local bettors overwhelmingly backed the Eagles.
Sportsbooks Took Major Action
FanDuel shattered records, boasting 16.6M bets, a 19% increase, peaking at 70,000 bets per minute.
FanDuel reported 51% of the ML handle and 47% of the Spread handle on the Eagles
DraftKings reported an uptick in monthly unique players, highlighting robust customer engagement and solidifying their market presence.
Despite not yet reporting specific numbers, a Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM said Super Bowl LIX was BetMGM’s single biggest betting event in history.
"It took the most bets, and was one of the best single game results in company history" - Christian Cipollini
The Bottom Line
As sportsbooks evolve and attract more bettors, understanding how they adapt odds and manage their books can give you an edge in identifying value bets and spotting public bias in upcoming sports seasons.
Slip of the Week
This week’s slip is a little different…
Guy has a 17-leg parlay to turn $2.33 into almost $60k, and it misses by one leg.
Not only that, but UMass Lowell was winning by 6 points with 1:13 left in overtime.
If that’s not a bad beat, I don’t know what is.
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