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- Issue #32
Issue #32
Niche Betting Research Platform, Weekly Bets, March Madness Money Bracket
The Locksmith
February 24, 2025
Table of Contents
March Madness Is Almost Here…
And in exactly 20 days we’ll all be sitting on the couch waiting for Selection Sunday to start, predicting which region teams will land in, and getting ready to forget about anything that isn’t College Basketball.
Here's this year’s schedule for the 2025 men's tournament:
Selection Sunday: 6 p.m. ET Sunday, March 16 on CBS
First Four: March 18-19
First round: March 20-21
Second round: March 22-23
Sweet 16: March 27-28
Elite Eight: March 29-30
Final Four: April 5 at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas
NCAA championship game: April 7 at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas
With only a few weeks remaining in the regular season every matchup counts - especially for teams on the bubble.
Bubble Teams
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Think you can build a bracket better than every other Building Bankroll subscriber?
Because someone will.
Lucky for you, next week’s issue will have a sign-up link to the 'Building Bankroll Bettor Brackets' group on ESPN Bracket Challenge.
Free entry for every Building Bankroll subscriber, with the winner(s) going home with a triple-digit prize. 💰
Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks
Last Week: 1-1 | 0.1u 🤑
Arizona ML v. Baylor [+110] ✅ / Locksmith
VJ Edgecombe o1.5 [+145] 👎 / Locksmith
Overall Record: 12-11 | +0.46u
As a result, we’ve seen MPJ’s minutes dip a bit back to low 30’s and high 20’s.
Bi Between the 25-35 min range when all major players are active, MPJ’s averages 6.3 boards per game and we’re getting it for a good price here.
In the last two games he’s gone over this line, MPJ’s faced the Hornets and Lakers who love shooting jump shots which has often led to a lot of long board opportunities.
However, I see less opportunities for that in tonight’s game against the Pacers and forward combo of Pascal and Nesmith who love to attack and drive into the paint at a high rate; especially with Turner back who creates a lot of space given his shooting presence.
Give us the UNDER here 🤝🏽
In his last 11 games Cryer is averaging 3.18 rebounds and has hit this line in every away game in that span outside of Arizona.
Being able to score 25+ on any given night doesn’t mean he disappears on the glass.
Cryer pulled down 4 boards in the previous matchup against Texas Tech, and there’s not reason to think he’s not capable of doing it in a high-stakes rematch.
However, not only did this game go to overtime - Emmanuel Sharp was a game time decision and played less than 20 minutes due an ankle injury.
And while Sharp won’t be perfectly healthy in this one, Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country and won’t let him take over twice.
10 Under-the-Radar Research Sites
From Baseball Savant to ESPN, there are pretty much limitless sports research and analysis out there.
This week we’ve handpicked 10 websites you need to know - No matter which leagues or teams you bet on.
Whether you're a data cruncher or a casual bettor, these sites have something to boost your edge.
Lineups is my favorite go-to for the leagues I happen to bet most (these👆).
They post daily blogs for each sport during the season with best bets, stats, odds, and more.
They also have a great suite of tools for specific sports:
NHL Line Combinations
Pretty much anything you could possibly need for NFL, NBA, and MLB
Value for Bettors
Daily content updates for in-season sports
Compare real-time betting odds from various sportsbooks to find the best value.
Access starting lineups, fantasy projections, and sportsbook reviews.
Stay informed with the latest news, strategies, and state-specific legal betting guides.
FanGraphs
Overview: A staple for any baseball fan, FanGraphs is the premier source for advanced MLB statistics and analysis since 2002.
and they have an app 👀
Value for Bettors
Dive into advanced metrics like wOBA and FIP for detailed player insights.
You can find nearly any stat you can think of with their various leaderboards, filters, and projections.
Overview: Known as T-Rank to seasoned bettors, this site offers some of the top free advanced metrics for college basketball.
It might not look the prettiest, but it’s packed with more insight than you could need.
Value for Bettors
Visuals covering players, teams, programs, tournaments, and more.
Analyze team trends and specific player matchups for deeper and wider analysis.
Overview: Founded by former NBA exec Ben Falk, this is one of the cleaner analytics websites out there.
They’ve got some unique metrics built in - For example excluding “garbage time and possessions at the end of quarters that are highly likely to end up in a heave” from stats to show a better picture of actual performance.
Value for Bettors
Removes noise by focusing on what matters.
Offers unique insights into team/player efficiency and matchup strengths.
Overview: This site is a hub for advanced NHL statistics, updated regularly and free to use.
While it’s not the prettiest site you’ll ever see, the content is worth it.
Value for Bettors
Explore metrics like expected goals and high-danger scoring chances, or analyze shift performance over a game.
Customize tables to break down specific team and player performance.
Course measurements & analysis
Overview: DataGolf provides advanced golf analytics to inform both casual and professional bettors.
The site can feel overwhelming at first, and the easiest way to start is usually with a specific golfer.
Value for Bettors
Access strokes-gained metrics and course difficulty adjustments.
Use the Course Fit Tool and live tournament models for betting predictions.
Overview: NBAstuffer is a comprehensive source for advanced statistics, going as deep as referee and rest day analysis.
Value for Bettors
Get insights on player movement and shooting gravity for better betting strategies.
Dive into metrics like RAPM for in-depth performance evaluation.
Bet MMA
Overview: BetMMA.tips offers extensive MMA statistics and a community for bettors.
This site is filled with cappers sharing free and paid picks, using a simple key to help bettors weigh different opinions:
Value for Bettors
Follow top MMA handicappers and access detailed fight statistics.
Utilize dashboards, filters and tips for to understand the whole picture.
The Bottom Line
It’s no secret that in sports betting, the slightest edge can make all the difference.
The resources highlighted above aren't just about numbers and graphs; they're about finding out what others don’t yet know.
Hottest CBB Matchups This Week
Monday, February 24, 2025
Michigan @ Nebraska | 8:00pm EST | FS1
Houston (4) @ Texas Tech (10) | 9:00pm | ESPN
Kansas @ Colorado | 11:00pm | ESPN
Tuesday, February 25, 2025
Providence @Marquette (21) | 7:00pm | FS1
Baylor @ Cincinnati | 7:00pm | ESPN2
Mississippi State (24) @ Alabama (6) | 9:00pm | ESPN2
South Carolina @ Missouri (14) | 9:00pm | ESPNU
Wednesday, February 26, 2025
Michigan State (8) @ Maryland (18) | 6:30pm | BTN
Ole Miss @ Auburn (1) | 7:00pm | ESPN2
Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M (12) | 7:00pm | SEC Network
Slip of the Week
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