Sports Betting: August 11 - 17, 2025

• Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

• 2025 Football Futures: The Field Manual

Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

Last Week: 2-1 | +0.82u

• Tanner Gordon Under 2.5 Ks (-105) ✅ / The UNDERground Lab

• A. Ramirez/V. Pasquantino Hit Parlay (-115) ✅ / Locksmith

• Cade Povich Under 4.5 Ks (+125) ❌ / The UNDERground Lab

2025 Record: 49-40 | +8.46u

I mean the Astros swing either way no matter where they are but I think they could be outmatched here.

• According to recent trends, their splits against lefties are in the bottom percentile.

They’ll bat for a high percentage of line drives against them but could whiff here (pivot over 7.5K if you’d like for plus-money with caution because Astros can still make contact because they’re the Astros) due to crochet’s stuff.

Crochet’s been over this line in his last two and could see a positive regression spot here.

Crochet isn’t your ordinary lefty and if the Astros are demonstrating these splits against every other lefty, then they could be in for a long day.

Half a unit only due to the thin margin here. Let’s get the UNDER!!

Yastrzemski gets the nod at leadoff in his 10th game as a Kansas City Royal.

He’s off to a slower start than in his time with the Giants this season, with his batting average dropping from .231 to .214.

But he' has a small (28 AB) sample size, and has a strong matchup tonight against 2nd-year pitcher Cade Cavalli (RHP).

Yastrzemski consistently hits better against righties than lefties, and has the advantage tonight as he looks to end his 2-game hitless streak.

Carpenter sits in the two-spot for the Tigers, going against RHP Elvis Peguero.

This will be a bullpen game for the White Sox, which is a great sign for the Tigers.

The Sox have a bottom-third bullpen when it comes to hits allowed, and Carpenter is one of the most consistent hitters on the Tigers' lineup.

Despite going 0-1 against Peguero overall, Carpenter has a good track record against the Sox pitchers and should get 4+ quality ABs tonight.

• Playing half a unit at these odds

Although, I will say that the Pirates have been faring well against lefties according to recent trends.

• They’re drawing walks (high BB%) and only K’ing at 18.8 %.

Quintana usually sets himself up with his called strikes by painting the edges, but with the Pirates chasing less, all we need is a little luck from the umps and hope they don’t expand the box on us.

Also, the Pirates tend to be more swing friendly in the zone and are the middle pack of called strikes against.

Lets hope this is enough of an edge for us and give us that UNDER!

2025 Football Futures: The Field Manual

College Football and NFL are right around the corner, so it's time to talk futures.

I posted an article about betting football futures this year - but it isn't a list of picks.

It’s a system.

If you adopt only a few habits for 2025, make sure you think about these:

Avoid the Traps

• Kill correlation: don't stack MVP + team futures + conference plays on the same thesis

• Resist parlay paradise: boosts rarely offset compounded hold percentages

• Compare opportunity cost against target ROI before locking up capital for months

Market Structure & Line Shopping

• Shop as many books as you can religiously.

  • Futures hold is structurally high, claw it back through price hunting

• Hit stragglers and late-moving numbers; retail books lag sharp action

• Track no-vig math across books; small edge improvements compound over long horizons

Portfolio Construction & Sizing

• Structure like a pro: Core holdings (65-75%), Opportunistic bets (20-30%), Speculative positions (5-15%)

• Size at ¼-½ Kelly only: respect estimation error and months-long capital lockup

Timing Windows & Market Inefficiencies

• Best prices often hide between news cycles, not during headline moments

  • Don't overreact with the market

• Target the midseason sweet spot: NFL Weeks 6-10, CFB mid-October when identity meets mispricing

• Buy after rival injuries and ugly losses where fundamentals didn't change

  • (Think ND 'To Make the Playoffs' after losing to NIU)

Risk Management & Fragility Planning

• Apply QB fragility haircuts to every team future. Depth matters.

  • If Josh Allen goes down, how good are the Bills?

• Track leverage injuries beyond QB: WR1/CB1 situations that swing playoff equity

• Diversify across books, time, and market types - not just different versions of the same story

I cover other aspects of futures betting, like when to cash out/hold, avoiding information overload, real-life examples of these strategies in practice, and more.

Read The Complete Guide to NFL & CFB Futures Betting (2025) (free, obviously).

P.S. Tune in next time for the specific futures I've placed so far 👀