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Issue #55
Weekly Betting Picks, DraftKings 'Early Exit' Program, Guardians Clear Lockers, & ESPN Bet's New 'FanCenter'
The Locksmith
August 04, 2025
Sports Betting: August 4 - 10, 2025
Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks
Last Week: 1-2 | -1.15u
Jacob Misiorowski Under 5.5 Ks (+110) ❌ / The UNDERground Lab
J. Profar/Tatis Jr. Hit Parlay (-117) ✅ / Locksmith
S. Steer/William Contreras Hit Parlay (+137) ❌ / Locksmith
2025 Record: 47-39 | +7.64u
Gordon himself lacks the whiff stuff to consistently punch out the Jays especially being in Coors.
I doubt the Jays let Gordon paint the zone given their swing friendly tendency.
Gordon’s median is 2.5 so this line for almost plus money is a steal.
Give us the UNDERRRR!
Ramirez sits in the 3-spot for the Marlins tonight, going against righty pitcher Jason Alexander.
Previously in a relief-focused role with the Athletics before being acquired by Houston this June, Alexander has allowed righties to hit slightly above .290 in his career.
Ramirez is batting .241 this season and .244 against righties in his first MLB season, and should produce hard contact that ends in play tonight.
Pasquantino looks to continue a strong hitting season, hitting .264 with 18 home runs and 66 RBIs.
He’ll go up against right-hander Brayan Bello, who has allowed 5+ hits in his last 5 outings and has always struggled against lefties.
Pasquantino is hitting .278 against righties this season and is 2-6 in his career against Bello.
Hitting 3rd in the lineup tonight should allow Pasquantino enough opportunity to land one in play.
The Phillies are still in swing mode and even though they haven’t been making contact, we can attribute that to their most recent matchups.
Povich does not really pose a threat in terms of whiff and chase rate.
His K% also dips against righties where the Phillies are projected to have 5-6 in their lineup.
First game back from IL too, could be limited if he’s shelled.
Like this spot for an UNDER at this price!
Betting News: Quick Hits
A rundown of the latest moves and headlines in sports betting.
DraftKings “Early Exit” Program
DraftKings Sportsbook announced its “Early Exit” program on August 1st, aiming to protect bettors and their bets from in-game injuries.
Qualifying pre-game and full-game player prop bets across MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, NHL, golf, and soccer can now receive cash credits if a player exits due to injury within specified timeframes (differs per sport).
via DraftKings Sportsbook
For Parlays and SGPs: The remaining legs of your parlay will remain open, and the odds of your parlay will be recalculated excluding the leg that qualifies for Early Exit
The program, successfully piloted during Saturday’s Reds-Braves Speedway Classic rainout, provides refunds within 24 hours.
Guardians Clear Lockers of Ortiz & Clase
The Cleveland Guardians cleared the lockers of pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz following suspicious betting patterns tied to their recent games.
Sportsbooks flagged unusually large bets on individual pitches thrown by both players.
“Billy, this is Emmanuel Clase. He throws maybe the nastiest pitch in baseball and was unhittable last year. His defect is he trusted Luis Ortiz too much”
— First Church of Goff (@1stChurchofGoff)
5:16 PM • Jul 28, 2025
Both are sidelined through at least August 31, potentially longer pending the investigation results.
If found guilty, both players could face lifetime MLB bans.
ESPN Bet Introduces "FanCenter"
ESPN Bet is launching FanCenter, a personalized betting hub designed specifically for fantasy football players.
Set to debut ahead of the 2025 NFL season, FanCenter will offer customized wagers based directly on users' fantasy rosters, favorite teams, and players.
The platform will attempt to leverage ESPN's established fantasy football user base of over 13 million players, aiming to boost user retention, engagement, and acquisition by seamlessly connecting fantasy sports and betting.
The Reality for Bettors
These customized parlays and prop bets are likely high-margin wagers favoring the sportsbook, not bettors, designed to entice users into bets they typically wouldn’t make.
It might be "easier" to link up your fantasy team and have a betting screen just for those props, but you probably won't be consistently beating the book on these bets.
This Week in Sports Betting
FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA Tour) | August 7-10
Betting Preview Here (via Lineups)
Cincinnati Open (WTA/ATP) | August 7-18
Betting Preview Here (via First)
MLB Season Continues (62% complete)
This Week’s MLB Schedule (via Hashtag Baseball)
And be on the lookout for our next piece of content: "NFL and CFB Futures Betting"
Slip of the Week
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