This Week…

• Betting Picks

• ICYMI: Betting News This Week

This Week’s Betting Picks

Last Week: 3-2 | +1.1u

• 0.5u: J.J. McCarthy Under 0.5 Interceptions (+158) ❌ | The UNDERground Lab

• Georgia ML (-116) ✅ / Locksmith

• Miami (OH) Team Total o20.5 (-120) ❌ / Locksmith

• Ohio State/IU 1H Total u23.5 (-110) ✅ / Locksmith

• Texas Tech/BYU 1H Total u26.5 (-120) ✅ / Locksmith

2025 Record: 74-59 | +15.43u

In both of the Chief’s last two games since Pacheco returned, Hunt has gone over this line but Chiefs ended up in the L column.

We’re not solely blaming Hunt for their losses but play calling could look a bit different here as Pacheco continues to ramp up and be ready for more reps here vs the Chargers.

Hunt’s clearly not the solution to get the Chiefs run game going as his metrics are very underwhelming (Bottom percentile in explosive run-rate, 11% missed tackle rate, and only a median of 3.9 YPC).

With these metrics and the Chiefs looking to make the playoffs, there’s no time like the present, especially with the Chargers being susceptible to explosive runners.

Pacheco’s style matches up better here as he’s far more explosive than Hunt and we just saw what Saquon did to them so lets get sharp here 🔪

They need to control clock, convert third-and-shorts through the run, and field-goal territory possessions.

Both teams have emphasized establishing the run early in games this year, meaning ground-based possession football naturally suppresses explosive plays and keeps scoring in predictable, methodical ranges.

With Cleveland's offense ranked 29th in points per game (17.2), the under-script games heavily favoring Chicago's power running scheme creates natural separation on the scoreboard.​

The number (-4.5) implies roughly 2–3 points allowed for Cleveland in the first half. Against a Bears team that has now posted four straight wins and plays methodical, ground-based football, that's generous.

• Playable up to -120, or -5.5 at -110

The Lions' defense is ranked 27th in yards per game and 28th in points per play allowed and faces Matthew Stafford and a Rams offense that has the versatility to attack both inside and outside the tackles exploits every weakness in Detroit's scheme.

The projected score from the line is roughly Rams 31, Lions 25, which feels generous to Detroit given their secondary injuries and run-defense decay.

Stafford at home against a beatable secondary, paired with McVay's recent tactical refinements and the Rams' dominance in time-of-possession games, makes -5.5 appropriately valued for a team capable of hanging 35+ on struggling defenses.

Aaron Rodgers is managing games rather than commanding them; Pittsburgh's last five opponents have seen efficient, ball-control performances that underscore a team living on defensive fumes more than offensive production.

Meanwhile, Miami has won back-to-back games and showed genuine mettle last week against the Jets.

The Dolphins' defense has trended sharply upward in rush defense, and against a Steelers rushing attack that struggles for consistency, Miami can force Pittsburgh into obvious passing situations where the Steelers' wide receivers continue to fail to create separation.

I'm taking the Dolphins in a low-total environment where Pittsburgh can't move the ball through the middle and Mike McDaniel's offense has proved it can sustain drives and pressure opposing defenses is the smarter fade.

• Playable to -115

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