Table of Contents

• Community Capper Lock In Weekly Picks

  • Betting On The CFP This Weekend?

    • Friday, Dec. 20: Indiana at Notre Dame

    • Saturday, Dec. 21: SMU at Penn State

    • Saturday, Dec. 21: Clemson at Texas

    • Saturday, Dec. 21: Tennessee at Ohio State

  • Locksmith’s First Round Leans 🔮

  • Slip of the Week

Community Capper Lock In Weekly Picks

Last Week 🤢

• Brandin Cooks o2.5 Receptions (+102) ❌

• Cooper Rush 250+ Pass Yards (+124) ❌

• Cowboys/Bengals o50 Total Points (-110) ❌

• Michigan -4.5 vs Arkansas (-115) ❌

Overall Record: 20-25 | -4.76u

But why the second half?

Over the course of the season, Notre Dame has slowly and methodically increased usage of RB2 Jadarian Price.

• (Price would be the top running back on most FBS rosters, including a few teams in the CFP)

Notre Dame has started giving Price carries earlier and more often in the game, using Love sparingly throughout the first quarter and some of the second, then leaning on him heavily as the game winds down.

Love is primarily a “bruiser” with explosive plays trickled in, but I’m expecting most of his carries later in the game to come in IU’s territory.

• J. Love ATD sits at around -200, but I’m going for the value in a second half TD here.

I’m not making excuses for the guy since 4 out of his interceptions since week 10 are in a clean pocket.

In the first 9 weeks, he’s had no interceptions in a clean pocket, which is what I think he’ll have today against the Raiders who have announced that Crosby is going to have to be sidelined for the remainder of the season.

Cousins should have a clean pocket for the most of the night and has to be play a clean game for the Falcons to regain a spot in the wildcard.

I highlighted his last four opponents since week 10 and has a 27th ranked QBR.

If Cousins chokes tonight against this inferior pass rush Crosby-less Raiders group, then Penix should start, but I think Cousins cleans it up tonight and that starts without giving any picks.

Give us the under 🤝

🧑‍🔬 Porter avg. 2.0-for-5.8 per 36 MIN this season in games with Murray, Gordon, Jokić all playing but this will be arguably his best matchup of the season.

🧑‍🔬 SAC has allowed the 3rd-most C&S 3PM/gm (on the 4th-highest shot frequency), 4th-most pullup 3PM/gm, 6th-most corner 3PM/gm, 3rd-most above the break 3PM/gm.

Porter has shot 37% on the road from deep this season. Projecting 7.0 3PA, 2.7 3PM; playable down to -125. 🧪

This signifies not only a trend in the Irish’s play-calling and offensive strategy over the season, but an affection for the run game when more than a win is on the line.

• ND’s last two games of the season had the most influence on whether or not they would make the CFP, and the Irish had Leonard throw the ball just 13 and 22 times

The Irish have no reason to veer from what’s working, which is why I think they’ll continue to utilize the run game (Love, Price, AND Leonard) against Indiana.

Betting On The CFP This Weekend?

This week marks the first ever weekend of a 12-team College Football Playoff, and we’ve got 4 incredible matchups to gamble on.

Below I’ll dig in to each matchup, combined with a small betting analysis for each matchup.

Friday, December 20: Indiana¹⁰ at Notre Dame⁷ | 8pm EST

• ND -7

• O/U: 50.5

Both teams boast impressive 11-1 records, but the Fighting Irish have been on a tear since the 14-16 loss against NIU in Week 2.

Meanwhile, Indiana has been the Cinderella story of the season under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti.

Team Analysis

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Offense

Notre Dame's offense is a well-oiled machine, led by quarterback Riley Leonard.

Leonard has been a dual-threat weapon, amassing over 2,000 passing yards and 721 rushing yards this season.

The Irish's ground game is their bread and butter, ranking 2nd in EPA/rush.

• Jeremiyah Love: 134 carries, 949 rush yards, 15 Rush TDs

• Jadarian Price: 89 carries, 651 rush yards, 7 Rush TDs

• Riley Leonard: 124 carries, 721 rush yards, 14 Rush TDs

Leonard's ability to keep defenses honest with his legs opens up opportunities for the Irish's smash-mouth rushing attack.

Defense

The Irish defense is a formidable unit, particularly against the pass.

They rank 3rd in passing yards allowed per game, making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks.

However, their run defense has shown vulnerability, ranking 129th in stuff rate.

• This could be a chink in the armor that Indiana looks to exploit on Friday night.

Indiana Hoosiers

Offense

Indiana's offense has been electric all season long, led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke.

Rourke's precision passing (70.4% completion rate) has been the catalyst for the Hoosiers' success.

They rank 1st in success rate and 2nd in EPA/play, making them a nightmare for defenses.

However, they struggled against elite defenses like Ohio State and Michigan, which is definitely worthkeeping an eye on.

Defense

The Hoosiers' defense has been surprisingly stout, ranking 2nd in EPA/play allowed.

• In their toughest test this season, they gave up 38 points to OSU in Columbus.

They excel at limiting explosive plays, which will be crucial against Notre Dame's big-play potential on the ground.

However, their pass defense has been leaky at times, allowing a 61.6% completion rate.

Betting Insights

Spread

Notre Dame is favored by 7 points, and they've been a reliable bet, going 9-2-1 ATS this season.

However, Indiana has been no slouch, covering 9 of their last 11 games.

The line movement from 8.5 to 7 suggests some confidence in Indiana's ability to keep it close, but there’s clear favoritism for the Irish in this one.

Total Points

The total has dropped from 52.5 to 50.5, indicating expectations of a lower-scoring affair.

Both teams have strong defenses and ball-control offenses, which could lead to a methodical pace.

With cold weather and a likely chance of snow, I wouldn’t be surprised if this matchup is littered with running and short pass plays.

The Bottom Line

This game is a classic strength vs. strength matchup, with Indiana's high-flying offense going against a stingy Notre Dame defense.

While the Hoosiers have the firepower to test the Irish, Notre Dame's experience and depth should ultimately prevail.

The key here will be Notre Dame's ability to control the game on the ground and limit Indiana's explosive plays on offense.

Saturday, December 21: SMU¹¹ at Penn State⁶ | 12pm EST

• Penn State -8.5

• O/U: 53.5

The Saturday slate kicks off with a rare and intriguing matchup between the SMU Mustangs and the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Both teams enter with identical 11-2 records, having secured at-large bids after falling short in their respective conference championships.

The Nittany Lions will enjoy the comforts of home-field advantage in what promises to be a chilly December afternoon in Happy Valley.

Team Analysis

SMU Mustangs

Offense

SMU boasts one of the nation's top offenses, averaging over 38 points per game.

Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been a revelation, showcasing dual-threat capabilities with over 3,000 passing yards and 379 rushing yards.

The Mustangs' ground game is formidable, ranking 17th in carries and rushing touchdowns, led by Brendon Smith's 1,270 yards and 14 scores.

However, they'll face a stern test against Penn State's stout run defense.

Defense

The Mustangs' defense has been serviceable but not spectacular, which could be a concern against a balanced Penn State attack

They'll need to tighten up to keep the Nittany Lions in check.

SMU's resilience was on full display in their narrow ACC title game loss to Clemson.

They'll need that same grit to contend with the hostile environment at Beaver Stadium.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Offense

Penn State's offense has been efficient, led by quarterback Drew Allar, who has shown poise and maturity beyond his years.

The Nittany Lions' backfield, featuring Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, is one of the best in college football, averaging 127.7 yards per game.

Tight end Tyler Warren has emerged as a key target, boosting the passing attack.

Defense

The Nittany Lions' defense is their calling card, ranking in the top 20 in scoring, run, and pass defense.

They excel at limiting opponents' scoring opportunities and will look to stifle SMU's high-powered offense.

James Franklin's struggles in big games are well-documented, but the home-field advantage and potential adverse weather conditions should play into Penn State's hands.

Betting Insights

Spread

Penn State is favored by 8.5 points, and while they have the talent to cover, SMU's explosive offense should keep it close.

The Mustangs have shown they can compete with top teams, making this spread intriguing.

Total Points

The total is set at 53.5, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair.

However, Penn State's defense and the possibility of inclement weather could lead to a lower-scoring game than anticipated.

Not to mention, Happy Valley should do a good job of getting loud when the SMU offense is on the field.

Player Props

Keep an eye on Drew Allar's passing yards and Kevin Jennings' rushing yards. Both quarterbacks have the ability to impact the game significantly.

The Bottom Line

This matchup pits SMU's dynamic offense against Penn State's suffocating defense.

While the Mustangs have the firepower to challenge the Nittany Lions, Penn State's overall talent, home-field advantage, and defensive prowess will be tough to overcome.

Saturday, December 21: Clemson¹² at Texas⁵ | 4pm EST

• Texas -11

• O/U: 51.5

Both teams enter with 10-3 records, having secured their playoff spots with conference championship performances.

Texas will enjoy home-field advantage, but Clemson's postseason pedigree under coach Dabo Swinney cannot be overlooked.

Team Analysis

Clemson Tigers

Offense

Clemson's offense is led by quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has thrown for 33 touchdowns despite lacking a standout wide receiver.

Tight end Jake Briningstool has been a reliable target, setting Clemson career records for a tight end.

The Tigers' ground game faces uncertainty with injuries to running backs Phil Mafah and 2nd-string Jay Haynes, which could impact their offensive power and balance.

Defense

The Tigers' defense has been opportunistic, ranking second in the nation in turnover margin at +16.

While not dominant statistically, they excel at forcing mistakes and capitalizing on them.

TJ Parker leads the pass rush with 11 sacks, and the defense will need to pressure Texas QB Quinn Ewers to disrupt the Longhorns' rhythm.

Clemson's postseason experience under Swinney should be a significant factor.

The Tigers have a knack for winning close games, as evidenced by their ACC championship victory over SMU.

Texas Longhorns

Offense

Texas's offense is led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has thrown for 2,665 yards and 25 touchdowns.

The Longhorns have experimented with using backup QB Arch Manning as a power runner, adding a wrinkle to their offensive scheme.

However, Ewers' recent struggles with interceptions and a lingering ankle injury could be concerning in this matchup.

Defense

The Longhorns boast one of the nation's top defenses, ranking second in scoring defense and first against the pass.

• Anthony Hill Jr. anchors the defense with 7.5 sacks and 90 tackles.

Texas's ability to contain Clemson's skill players will be crucial.

The Longhorns’ home-field advantage should play a role.

However, the Longhorns' inconsistency in putting teams away is a concern, especially against a resilient Clemson squad.

Betting Insights

Spread

Texas is favored by 11 points, but Clemson's ability to hang around in games makes this spread intriguing.

The Tigers have shown they can compete with top teams, and their postseason experience could keep it close.

If they can keep it close, they may just be able to sneak into the next round.

Total Points

The total is set at 51.5, with both teams having strong defenses that could lead to a lower-scoring affair.

Texas has gone under in eight of its last nine games, and Clemson has seen the under hit in three of its last four against FBS teams.

The Bottom Line

This matchup pits Clemson's opportunistic defense against Texas's stout defensive unit, with two great quarterbacks on each side.

While the Longhorns have the talent to cover the spread, Clemson's postseason experience and ability to force turnovers could make this a closer game than expected.

The key will be Texas's ability to execute offensively and avoid costly mistakes.

Saturday, December 21: Tennessee⁹ at Ohio State⁸ | 12pm EST

• OSU -7

• O/U: 47.5

The Tennessee Volunteers are heading to the heart of Buckeye Nation to face Ohio State in the final First Round game this year.

Both teams are eyeing a trip to Pasadena to face Oregon.

Team Analysis

Tennessee Volunteers

Offense

Tennessee's offense has been a mixed bag this season.

While Nico Iamaleava has been on fire with eight touchdowns in his last two games, the Volunteers' passing game lacks explosive plays, ranking 115th in yards per successful play.

RB Dylan Sampson has consistently delivered against strong defenses, and Tennessee will likely lean on him to move the chains.

Defense

The Vols' defense is formidable, ranking fourth in havoc rate and points allowed.

Jermod McCoy is a standout in the secondary, with four interceptions and a knack for disrupting opposing quarterbacks.

Tennessee's defense will need to be at its best to contain Ohio State's offense.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Offense

The Buckeyes boast a balanced attack, with Will Howard leading the charge.

Despite a recent hiccup against Michigan, Howard has been reliable, and the rushing duo of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson adds depth to the offense.

OSU ranks sixth in points per drive, but their recent offensive struggles against strong defenses are something to keep in mind.

Defense

Ohio State's defense is the crown jewel, ranking first in scoring defense and total yards allowed.

Their pass rush and coverage units are elite, posing a significant challenge for Tennessee's methodical offense.

If the OSU defense can contain Sampson and Iamaleava, covering 7 points is definitely a possibility.

Betting Insights

Spread

Ohio State is favored by 7 points, but Tennessee's ability to cover against ranked opponents makes this spread intriguing.

However, the Volunteers are 2-4 ATS against top 25 scoring defenses, suggesting a roadblock they’ll need to overcome.

Total Points

The Under at 47 is appealing, given both teams' defensive prowess.

Ohio State has hit the Under in five of their last six games, and Tennessee has done so in four of their last five against top defenses.

A few explosive plays could be the difference between the Over and Under in this one.

The Bottom Line

While the Buckeyes should have the edge at home, their recent offensive struggles can't be ignored.

Tennessee's defense is capable of keeping this game close, and with both teams' tendency to hit the Under, a low-scoring affair seems the most likely outcome.

Locksmith’s First Round Leans 🔮

Notre Dame/Indiana

• Jeremiyah Love 2H TD Scorer (+135)

• Riley Leonard u26.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

Penn State/SMU

• SMU TT o22.5 (+100)

Texas/Clemson

• Under 51.5

• Bryant Wesco ATD (+280)

Tennessee/Ohio State

• Under 47.5

• Dylan Sampson o90 Rush YDS (-130)

Slip of the Week

What would you do with an extra $161k?