This Week…

• 3 Betting Picks

This Week’s Betting Picks

Last Week: 3-1 | +1.56u

• Kareem Hunt Under 10.5 Rushing Attempts (-130) ✅ | The UNDERground Lab

• Chicago Bears 1H -4.5 (-106) ✅ / Locksmith

• LA Rams -5.5 (-118) ✅ / Locksmith

• Dolphins +3 (-105) ❌ / Locksmith

2025 Record: 75-58 | +18.28u

Adjusted after incorrectly grading McCarthy u0.5 INT as loss last week

The Canes are a defensive unit built on discipline and limiting explosive plays in the first half.

Texas A&M's strength is not early game explosiveness - it's clock control and methodical execution.

The Aggies have won time of possession in their last eight straight games, gaining 8-16 minute advantages repeatedly.

Their third-down defense is historically stingy (22% conversion rate nationally, 20.5% in SEC play), which naturally suppresses total possessions and keeps scoring compact.

But when A&M gets to the second half, they dominate.

Miami's run defense (2.9 yards per attempt allowed) is elite, forcing A&M toward lengthier drives and clock control rather than quick scores.

With two teams that thrive on possession football and Miami's defense playing its most confident football of the season, 23.5 remains generous for early scoring.

Bryce Young has delivered when it matters most, including a 229-yard, three-TD performance last week without turnovers and clinical game management on the final drive against Dallas.

Over his last seven games, Young has thrown nine TDs against five interceptions.

Still modest in volume, but trending sharply upward in decision-making and protection-reading.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's secondary is a liability: ranking third in passing yards allowed (246.9 per game) and fifth in yards per play allowed through the air (6.8).

Baker Mayfield's last seven-game stretch has seen him average only 173 passing yards per game with nine TDs against five INTs - a sharp regression from his early season MVP narrative.

The Buccaneers are one-dimensional in their recent offensive script, and Carolina's defense has allowed just 5.6 yards per play while ranking strong in red-zone efficiency (56.52% scoring in the red zone versus Tampa's 72.22%).

The Panthers' trajectory (building momentum on both sides of the ball with improved cohesion) and Tampa Bay's offensive decline (Mayfield regressing, secondary weakness exposed) create a mismatch the market hasn't fully priced in.

At +3, Carolina gets three points of breathing room while facing a Buccaneers team playing its thinnest football of the season.

That personnel blow reverberates: Parsons' 12.5 sacks represented a significant percentage of Green Bay's pass-rush production, and his absence in a rematch at a hostile Soldier Field is a structural disadvantage the market hasn't fully capitalized on.

The Bears' momentum and Caleb Williams' trajectory are equally critical.

Williams has posted back-to-back excellent performances: 239 yards with three TDs against Tampa in Week 13, followed by 242 yards and two TDs with three interceptions forced by his defense against Cleveland.

Defensively, the Bears have allowed just 3.4-3.6 yards per play in recent wins, forcing turnovers consistently (three against Cleveland).

Jordan Love has regressed into late-season noise, and without Parsons, Green Bay's defense cannot manufacture the chaos needed to contain Chicago's elite rushing attack (152.2 yards per game, second in the league).

The Packers' run defense (100.5 yards allowed per game) ranks 23rd, which invites the Bears to dictate tempo and control field position at home.

The Bears offer value in a rematch where momentum, home field, personnel health, and recent defensive performance all tilt sharply in Chicago's favor.

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