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- Issue #74
This Week…
This Week’s Betting Picks
Last Week: 3-0 | +2.91u
Miami/A&M 1H Under 23.5 (+100) ✅ | The UNDERground Lab
Chicago Bears -1.5 (+100) ✅ / Locksmith
Carolina Panthers +3 (-110) ✅ / Locksmith
2025 Record: 78-58 | +21.19u
Even with Waller back, his numbers spiked and even had 46 last week w/ Ewers but I’m calling regression here against a blitz heavy Buccaneers team.
Given this and a rookie QB facilitating this offense, Dulcich may be asked to chip or block more to neutralize the pressure since Waller is already their vertical TE receiver.
Dulcich also saw a season low in snaps last week (17) so I expect that tend to continue.
L5 bettors will have a field day betting the over but I’m calling a trap!
Give us the UNDER! Playable only at 19.5.
Both teams are run-heavy (Fresno 53.76%, Miami 54.75%) and both play at deliberate tempos that suppress total plays, but Fresno's defensive line has been elite at generating immediate pressure: forcing takeaways at a top-10 rate with 2.1 giveaways per game from opponents.
Miami (Ohio) was dominant during the regular season but suffered a 23-13 loss in the MAC Championship, burning out after a punishing schedule and win-now mentality that often creates letdown spots in bowl games, especially in neutral sites where preparation and rest become critical.
Fresno's advantage is structural: better red-zone efficiency, superior field-goal conversion (despite the lower percentage, Fresno's kicker has been more consistent in high-pressure moments), and a defensive unit that has been tested against better talent and still performed.
Fresno at -5.5 essentially banks on defensive dominance and situational advantages - areas where the Bulldogs have excelled all season.
Both teams rank outside the top 20 in red-zone efficiency (Saints 40%, Titans 56.67%), which means even if either offense drives down field, they're settling for field goals rather than touchdowns.
With Shough as the Saints' primary mover, the total of 39.5 implies a 23-16 or 20-19 script.
That's achievable only if both defenses clamp down early, yet the Titans have allowed an average of 27+ points per game at home over their last 10 games.
The Saints defense has also been middling (ranked 27th in yards allowed per play), which creates a script where at least one offense breaks through for mid-20s points
This is a pure passing game for New Orleans against a Titans secondary that's not elite.
39.5 is a conservative line given the personnel losses and historical scoring trends in this matchup.
They won the ACC Championship on Dec 6 with a 27-20 overtime thriller against Virginia after establishing themselves as a top-25 offense by year-end.
Jaylen Smiley remains available at QB, and the Blue Devils rank in the top 15 nationally for passing yards per game.
Arizona State, by contrast, is decimated: Jordyn Tyson, Raleek Brown (leading rusher), Christian Hunt (backup QB), and multiple starting defensive players are all questionable or out.
The Sun Devils' offensive line is compromised with multiple undisclosed injuries, and their passing attack has shown vulnerability when forced to operate without elite receiving talent.
The total sits at 48.5, and neither team profiles as an offensive juggernaut, so Duke's -2.5 reflects a matchup where defensive health and situational execution matter more than raw talent gaps.
Duke's recent coverage record and ASU's personnel decimation make the Blue Devils the correct side at a modest spread.
Revisiting Building Bankroll's Most Popular Content
As 2025 comes to an end, revisit our top content from this year.
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