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Issue #27
4 Betting Myths / Weekly Bets / CFP Championship Betting Preview / NFL Playoff Primer
The Locksmith
January 20, 2025
In This Issue
Debunking 4 Sports Betting Myths
With so much chatter and bold claims swirling around, it's easy for myths to subtly influence your betting choices - often without you even realizing it.
Whether you're convinced the public is always off the mark or think sportsbooks have secret intel, it’s time to set the record straight on some of these misconceptions.
The Public is Always Wrong
Think the public is clueless when it comes to betting?
Not exactly.
Sure, the casual bettor might not always hit the mark, but dismissing public opinion entirely is a rookie mistake.
While it's true that many professional bettors often bet against the public, it's not because the public is always wrong.
In fact, dedicated fans often have a good sense of their team, even if they can't articulate it like a pro.
Parlays and teasers often get a bad rap, but labeling them as sucker bets is misleading.
While they are riskier and harder to win, they offer enticing risk-reward ratios that even professional bettors find appealing.
Many sportsbooks sweeten the deal with promotions, making these bets even more attractive.
Laying lots of parlays with crazy odds isn’t a great strategy.
But that doesn't mean they're a fool's errand
Plenty of bettors have cashed in big on successful parlays.
For those looking to maximize potential without breaking the bank, placing smaller units—between 0.05 to 0.5—on each parlay can be a smart move.
This approach minimizes risk while still keeping the door open for those thrilling high-upside wins.
It’s You vs. The Sportsbooks
Contrary to popular belief, sportsbooks aren't out to get you.
Their main goal is to balance the action and ensure they make a profit, not to sabotage individual bettors.
In fact, they want you to win just enough to keep you coming back for more.
With fierce competition in the industry, no sportsbook can afford to alienate its customers.
They focus on providing a good experience to keep you engaged, not on rigging the game against you.
Sportsbooks Have Insider Info
The idea that sportsbooks have insider information is a myth that just won't die.
While scandals have occurred, they are the exception, not the rule.
Sportsbooks are massive operations with access to the same information you have, just faster.
Their goal is to balance the action, not to deceive bettors with secret knowledge.
They might be adept at interpreting news, but that doesn’t mean they are rigging games or sitting on insider info.
The Bottom Line
Betting myths can cloud your judgment, but understanding the reality behind them helps you make smarter bets.
Balance public sentiment with research, evaluate each bet as objectively as possible, and remember that sportsbooks want you to keep playing.
Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks
Last Week: 2-2 \ +0.37u
Puka Nacua u7.5 Receptions (+108) ✅
TJ Hockenson 50+ Rec. Yards (+129) ✅
Josh Oliver o6.5 Rec. Yards (-105) ❌
Cooper Kupp o48.5 Rec. Yards ❌
2025 Record: 2-5 | -2.63u
2024: 23-31 | -6.76u
In this game, he’s going up against a tough defense (known for its secondary) that has 19 interceptions on the season.
Notre Dame plays man coverage each and every game, because they can.
But Howard will be airing out the ball to arguably the best WR group Notre Dame has faced all season.
He’ll make big throws, but I’m betting on the Irish defense to do what they do best.
Curry is questionable but I expect him to play in this matchup against the Celtics, but either way I want to secure its value.
The Warriors will be without Green so that eliminates the handoff 3’s.
The Celtics also held Curry under this line in their last matchup as they were applying pressure on the perimeter forcing him to drive in the paint.
Being the main focal point of this offense, I expect the C’s defense to lock in on Curry and force others to beat them.
Their switch scheme also helps in off ball movement which Curry also tends to get his 3’s from with Schroder handling the offense.
Overall, I like this matchup for an under of Curry’s active 🤝🏽
A lot of key players in this year’s Championship Game also played in that game:
Ohio State
TreVeyon Henderson
Emeka Egbuka
Jack Sawyer
Cody Simon
JT Tuimoloau
Notre Dame
Jeremiyah Love
Jaden Greathouse
Xavier Watts
Jaylen Sneed
Jack Kiser
The Championship Game should play out similarly to the 2023 matchup, which only had 3 points scored in the first half.
Notre Dame held both IU and Georgia to 3 first-half points, and 10 to Penn State.
And even though all three of Ohio State’s playoff games have gone over this total, they’ll be facing the toughest defense they’ve played this season.
It’s safe to say we’ll see these teams spend the majority of the first half testing the waters and figuring each other out, with the majority of points in this one coming after the half-time break.
CFP National Championship: Betting Crash Course
The CFP National Championship is finally here, with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish squaring off against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium tonight at 7:30pm EST.
Both teams have bulldozed their way through the playoffs, but only one will emerge as the winner.
And more importantly, only one team will cover the spread.
Team Analysis
Ohio State Buckeyes
Form & Key Players: The Buckeyes have been a force, winning playoff games by an average of nearly 20 points.
Their defense is a brick wall, and their offense is capable of putting up 40 on any given night.
TreVeyon Henderson has been a key player for OSU, especially throughout the postseason.
Henderson’s ability to break through defensive lines will be crucial against a Notre Dame defense that has shown vulnerability against the run.
Jeremiah Smith will receive the majority of focus, leaving guys like Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate with extra room to operate.
Egbuka, operating primarily from the slot, has the speed and agility to create mismatches, especially against Notre Dame’s slot corner Jordan Clark.
Trends & Stats: Ohio State ranks high in both offensive and defensive metrics, with a top-tier success rate and a formidable pass rush.
They’ve consistently outperformed opponents, making them a tough nut to crack.
Their defensive line, which registered four sacks against Texas, will look to exploit Notre Dame’s weakened offensive line, missing key player like Anthonie Knapp and more.
Defensive ends J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have been standouts, applying relentless pressure and disrupting opposing quarterbacks.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Form & Key Players: Notre Dame has shown resilience in the CFP, particularly in their nail-biting win over Penn State.
Jeremiyah Love is crucial to their offense, though his recent knee issues could be a concern against a tough Ohio State defense.
Notre Dame’s offense relies heavily on establishing the run game early, and they’ll need Love at his best to make that happen.
Riley Leonard will need to step up and make some plays, especially on third downs.
His ability to make plays with his legs adds a dynamic element to Notre Dame’s offense, but he’ll need to be sharp against an aggressive Ohio State defense.
Trends & Stats: The Irish boast the second-best defense in the nation in terms of points allowed.
However, their passing game has been less impressive, ranking 48th in EPA/Pass, and they face challenges with injuries on the offensive line.
Notre Dame’s defense will need to hold firm against Ohio State’s multifaceted attack.
Linebacker Jack Kiser is a key figure on the Irish defense, anchoring the middle with his tackling prowess and leadership on the field.
Xavier Watts will have arguably to toughest job tonight, playing as the last line of defense against one of the top receiving cores in the country.
Betting Insights
Spread
Ohio State is favored by 8 points.
Given their dominance and Notre Dame’s offensive line issues, the Buckeyes covering the spread seems plausible.
They’ve had an incredible postseason run, winning each game handily.
Ohio State’s recent history in national title games, where favorites have consistently covered, adds weight to this prediction.
Moneyline
Notre Dame at +325 offers value for those believing in an upset, but it’s a risky play against Ohio State (-365).
If the Irish can capitalize on turnovers, establish the run, and control the clock, they’ll have a shot.
But that’s a lot of “if’s”.
Total
With both teams boasting strong defenses, the under (45.5) could be appealing.
Since 2015, only two CFP Title Games have gone Under the point total:
Georgia vs Alabama in 2021, Michigan vs Washington in 2023
However, it’s worth noting that the average Total in these games is 57.3 - Which is a lot higher than what we have this year.
The case for the over relies on these two defenses breaking down multiple times each, and I just don’t see that happening.
Player Props
Look for TreVeyon Henderson to score a touchdown, given Notre Dame’s recent struggles against the run.
Emeka Egbuka could also shine in the passing game, exploiting vulnerabilities in Notre Dame’s secondary, particularly in the slot where Jordan Clark has shown weaknesses.
Three CFB National Championship game bets I gave in last week’s newsletter.
Picks & Predictions
Ohio State’s balanced attack and defensive strength give them a definite edge in this game.
I’m expecting the Buckeyes to win but I think the Irish can cover the spread in this one.
Notre Dame has been undervalued by oddsmakers all year long, and I don’t think that has changed here.
While I think OSU outmatches ND on both sides of the ball, this is just a few too many points.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 20, Notre Dame 17
Safe Legs and Longshots
Plays I find appealing across the spectrum, do with this as you wish.
Safer Legs (-200 and shorter)
Ohio State Under 31.5 Points | -230 | FanDuel
Riley Leonard Under 44.5 Rush Yards | -235 | Bally Bet
Carnell Tate Over 24.5 Receiving Yards | -250 | FanDuel
Jeremiyah Love Over 29.5 Rush Yards | -275 | Fanatics
Longshots (+400 and longer)
Will Howard 2+ INT | +425 | bet365
Gee Scott Jr. 40+ Receiving Yards | +500 | bet365
Mitchell Evans Anytime TD | +500 | MGM
Quinshon Judkins First TD Scorer | +600 | FanDuel
NFL Conference Championships
The NFL Conference Championships are finally set, with the Commanders being the surprise of the postseason so far.
AFC: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs face off in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday at 6:30pm ET.
Kansas City is a slight favorite at home, but Buffalo's recent win over the Chiefs in Week 11 adds a bit of intrigue to this matchup.
Buffalo Bills
Offense
Josh Allen leads a dynamic offense ranked No. 2 in EPA per play.
The addition of Amari Cooper has strengthened their receiving corps, while James Cook provides versatility out of the backfield.
Defense
The Bills' defense has been inconsistent, allowing high scores against top offenses like the Rams and Lions.
They'll need to tighten up to contain Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Offense
Patrick Mahomes continues to be the catalyst, with Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy as key targets.
The offensive line remains a concern, but the unit has shown resilience in close games so far.
Defense
Steve Spagnuolo's defense is peaking at the right time, with strong performances from Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie.
The Chiefs' defense will be crucial in slowing down Buffalo's high-powered offense.
If they can, it paves the way for Mahomes to play a bit more freely and do what he does best.
Betting Insights
Kansas City opened as a 1.5-point favorite, now at -2.5.
If you favor Buffalo, consider taking the spread now before it potentially shortens.
The Over/Under is set at 48 points.
Both offenses struggled in the Divisional Round, suggesting a potential for a lower-scoring game.
Kansas City is 1-6 O/U in its last seven home playoff games, making the Under an appealing option.
Prediction & Pick
This matchup is a classic clash of offensive powerhouses with defenses that can swing the game.
While the Chiefs have the home-field advantage and a knack for winning close games, the Bills' balanced attack and recent form give them a slight edge in my opinion.
Lean: Buffalo Bills +2.5 and Under 48 points.
NFC: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
The Washington Commanders head to Philadelphia to face the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game this Sunday at 3pm ET.
The Eagles, dominant at home with a 10-1 record, are favored by 4.5 to 5.5 points.
Washington, riding high after a stunning upset over the Lions, aims to continue their Cinderella story.
Washington Commanders
Offense
Jayden Daniels has been a revelation, leading the Commanders with poise and maturity beyond his years.
His dual-threat capability has been pivotal, allowing Washington to adapt and exploit defensive weaknesses.
The offensive line, bolstered by veterans, has provided Daniels with the protection needed to execute Kliff Kingsbury's creative schemes.
The Commanders rank in the top 10 for both rushing and passing DVOA, thanks to Daniels' ability to extend plays and hit big downfield targets.
Defense
While the defense lacks star power, it has shown a knack for making timely plays.
Veterans like Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu bring stability, but the unit's overall talent level remains a concern.
Despite this, the Commanders have managed to generate crucial turnovers, as evidenced by their five takeaways against Detroit.
The defense will need to step up significantly against Philadelphia's potent rushing attack, focusing on containing Saquon Barkley and forcing Jalen Hurts into uncomfortable passing situations.
Philadelphia Eagles
Offense
The Eagles' offense is built around a dominant run game, with Saquon Barkley at the forefront.
Barkley, who rushed for over 2,000 yards this season, is a constant threat to break big plays, supported by the league's best offensive line.
Jalen Hurts, while dealing with a knee injury, remains a key component.
Philadelphia's strategy revolves around controlling the clock and wearing down defenses, a formula that has served them well throughout the season.
Defense
Vic Fangio has transformed the Eagles' defense into one of the league's best, particularly against the run.
The defensive front, led by Jalen Carter, excels at shutting down opposing ground games, while rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have bolstered the secondary.
This unit has allowed more than 23 points only once since Week 5, showcasing their ability to stifle offenses.
Against Washington, the Eagles will aim to disrupt Jayden Daniels' rhythm and capitalize on any mistakes, leveraging their defensive prowess to control the game's tempo.
Betting Insights
Philadelphia opened at -4.5, now at -5.5.
If you favor the Eagles, consider betting before it potentially moves to -6.
The Over/Under is set around 49.5 points.
Given both teams' tendencies, a lower-scoring game is possible, especially with Philadelphia's strong defense and run-heavy approach.
Prediction & Pick
Philadelphia's home dominance and superior defense give them the edge in this one.
While Washington's offense has been impressive, the Eagles' ability to control the game with their ground attack and defensive prowess should prevail.
Lean: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 and Under 49.5 points.
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