Sports Betting: June 16 - 22, 2025

• Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

• Steam Chasing and Reverse Line Movement

  • What is Steam Chasing?

  • What is Reverse Line Movement (RLM)?

  • How Sharp Bettors Use These Strategies

  • Pros and Cons of Steam & Reverse Line Movement

• This Week In Sports Betting

Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

Last Week: 3-1 | +1.64u

• Chris Sale Under 7.5 Ks (-110) ❌ / The UNDERground Lab

• Emerson Hancock Under 3.5 Ks (-145) ✅ / The UNDERground Lab

• US Open Winning Score Over 278.5 (-105) ✅ / Nuke Bets

• C. Santana/TJ Friedl Hit Parlay (+100) ✅ / Locksmith

• Oilers to Win the Cup (-120) ⏳ / Peak Picks

2025 Record: 38-31 | +7.65u 🔥

His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) indicates that he’s due for some regression and why not against the Marlins at home with 85 degree weather and a 17.2 K% at home vs righties to show for.

After all, we saw signs of it that only allowed him to go for 4 IP against the Cubs last game.

We should see at least 5-6 righties for the Marlins who Abel tends to struggle K'ing against since he’ll be more in the zone against them.

• Think this line is a little too high still. Give us the UNDER!

Xavier Edwards (.279 AVG) excels against righties, hitting higher than .300 against them since 2023 - the first year of his career.

• He historically hits better at home, and is batting in the leadoff spot tonight

The Phillies will go with right-handed rookie Mick Abel on the bump, who has 14 hits allowed through 15 innings in 3 career starts.

On to the other leg, Ben Rice is batting in the 2-spot tonight against Jose Soriano, a 3rd year pitcher coming off of a 110-pitch game against the Athletics.

Rice is a lefty who, to put it candidly, gets a large majority of his hits against righties and struggles to do so against lefties.

• Rice (-185) is a great pairing with Edwards (-300) and gets us to plus odds 🔋

Steam Chasing and Reverse Line Movement

Information moves fast, but money moves even faster.

Steam chasing and reverse line movement (RLM) are strategies that hinge on rapid response to shifting lines, often led by professional bettors wielding sophisticated models or deep edges.

But what do these strategies actually involve, and how can both sharp and recreational bettors leverage them responsibly?

What is Steam Chasing?

Steam chasing involves capitalizing on sudden, market-wide line movements often (but not always) triggered by professional betting syndicates.

These moves are:

• Rapid and simultaneous across sportsbooks

• Driven by high-volume bets

• Signals of professional insight or sometimes market manipulation

Understanding the “Steam”

• Steam “steamrolls” a betting line, forcing sportsbooks to adjust quickly.

• Professionals may also use “head fakes” to move lines deceptively, then bet the other side.

What is Reverse Line Movement (RLM)?

RLM occurs when a betting line moves against public betting trends.

Example:

• 75% of bets are on Team A (-6), but the line shifts to -5.5.

  • Indicates sharp money on Team B despite public favor

How Sharp Bettors Use These Strategies

Not Just Blind Following

Sharp bettors focus on Closing Line Value (CLV) rather than chasing every steam move.

They:

1. Develop independent models

2. Track line movement

3. Use steam as a confirmation tool

4. Fade steam when it contradicts their analysis

Tools of the Trade

• Timing is everything: Sharp money flows near game time.

• Cross-market consistency: Multiple sharp books moving together adds credibility.

• Discrepancy analysis: Look for differences in bet % vs. money %.

• Key numbers: Watch for line moves near critical spreads (like 3 or 7 in NFL).

Pros and Cons of Steam and Reverse Line Movement

Pros

• Uncover sharp insights without building your own model

• Beat the closing line, a key indicator of long-term success

• Exploit inefficiencies before lines adjust

Cons

• False steam traps and manipulation

• Account limitations and bans over time

• Time and tech demands make it tough for casual bettors

False Steam Examples

• Buybacks: Move lines one way, then hammer the other side.

• Injury reactions: Often overblown, not true sharp moves.

• Small market plays: Less liquidity = easier manipulation.

Sportsbook Countermeasures

• Dynamic limiting systems

• Fast coordination across books

• Advanced bettor profiling

Final Thoughts: Use, Don’t Abuse

For most recreational bettors, steam chasing and RLM work best as support tools, not primary strategies.

Combine these with your own research, keep bankroll discipline, and picks the spots with the highest CLV.

The key?

Let sharp money guide your bets - but not make them for you.

This Week In Sports Betting

• The Pacers and Thunder are tied 2-2 in the NBA Finals, with Game 5 tonight at 8:30pm ET

  • OKC -9.5 | Total: 223.5

Game 6: Thursday (6/19) at 8:30pm ET | Game 7: Sunday (6/22) at 8:00pm ET

• The Panthers lead the Oilers in the Stanley Cup Finals 3-2

  • Game 6: Tuesday, June 17th @ 8:00pm ET

Game 7 (if necessary): Friday (6/17) at 8:00pm ET

• Travelers Championship (PGA): June 19-22

  • Course stats & overview

• As of today, we’re almost 44% through the MLB season

  • MLB schedule grid for this week