Sports Betting: June 2 - 8, 2025

• Illinois Bettors: Beware

  • The Bottom Line for Bettors

• Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

• UFC 316: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili 2

  • Key Betting Lines

• This Week In Sports Betting

• Slip of the Week

Illinois Bettors: Beware

If you’ve placed a sports bet in Illinois, or place legal sports bets in the U.S., you’ll want to hear this.

Starting later this year, Illinois will charge sportsbooks a per-bet fee—that’s right, a small charge every time a bet is placed online:

• $0.25 per bet for the first 20 million bets an operator takes each year

• $0.50 per bet after that

While this may sound like pocket change, sportsbooks take millions of bets. That adds up fast.

And you can bet that companies like FanDuel and DraftKings are already deciding how they’ll respond.

What Could This Mean for You?

Even though this fee doesn’t hit your bet directly, here’s how it could impact your experience:

Smaller Bonuses, Fewer Promos

Don’t be surprised if your favorite book cuts back on those generous $200 sign-up offers, odds boosts, or “no sweat” bets.

Worse Odds on Parlays and Popular Lines

To cover rising costs, some sportsbooks may start tweaking odds—especially on popular markets like NFL parlays or NBA moneylines.

Smaller Books May Bail

New or smaller sportsbooks may exit the Illinois market, leaving fewer choices and less competition for your business.

And here’s the kicker: some bettors might start driving—or logging in via VPN—to place bets just across state lines.

It’s not just about loyalty anymore. It’s about value.

Why This Matters Beyond Illinois

This per-bet fee is the first of its kind in the U.S.—and other states are watching.

If Illinois manages to collect millions without losing too many bettors, places like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan might follow suit.

But if it backfires and causes fewer bets, less revenue, and more frustrated customers - it could become a cautionary tale.

The Bottom Line for Bettors

Illinois just changed the rules of the game.

This fee may seem like a tax on big corporations, but chances are, you’ll feel it too; in your odds, in your promos, and in the long-term health of the state’s betting market.

Whether you’re a casual bettor or a dedicated sharp, pay attention.

Because what starts in Illinois might not stay in Illinois for long.

Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

Last Week: 0-1 | -1u

• Hit Parlay [Steer/Witt] (+100) ❌ / Locksmith

2025 Record: 33-30 | +4.22u

May’s primary pitches are his sinker and sweeper combo that make up roughly 80% of his pitches.

However, those pitches tend to be low to induce the GB, which the Mets bat for against righties on the road.

May’s sweeper tends to be in the heart of the zone so it’s not really pulling away from the hitter to produce the chase.

• The Mets also tend to create a lot of contact when they swing.

Their splits against sinker and sweepers is also top tier when you break it down.

May’s been over this line in his L3 and is due some regression.

Water down to 4.5 for plus money if you want.

-145 for an extra K isn’t the worst price so we’ll take it. Give us the UNDER!

We’ve got Stephenson & Steer batting 4/5 respectively, both of whom can hold their own against right-handed pitchers.

Civale comes into this game allowed right-handed batters a .273 average this season, and has historically done better against lefties.

While the Reds are certainly one of the more inconsistent hitting teams in the MLB, Stephenson and Steer are two of the most consistent in this lineup.

I see this as a great reversion spot for both, who have struggled to get a hit in their past few games.

UFC 316: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili 2

On June 7th (this Saturday) we get UFC 316, featuring current UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili against Sean O’Malley.

Both fighters bring more than belts and records into the cage — they carry contrasting styles, backgrounds, and visions for what it means to rule the 135-pound division.

• Dvalishvili won the title by defeating O'Malley at UFC 306 on Sep. 14, 2024.

• O’Malley ML: +270 / Dvalishvili ML: -300

  • o4.5 Rounds: -285 / u4.5 Rounds: +230

Merab Dvalishvili: The Relentless Engine of the Division

Dubbed “The Machine” for good reason, Dvalishvili has turned wrestling into an art form inside the Octagon.

He enters this title defense on an 11-fight win streak, with victories over four former champions including his UFC 306 conquest of O’Malley via unanimous decision.

• 92 UFC takedowns (most in history), including a record-setting 49 attempts against Petr Yan.

• Over 1 hour of control time in the bantamweight division.

• 2,092 total strikes landed, powered by elite-level cardio.

His approach is pressure-based, suffocating, and built for five-round wars.

An immigrant from Georgia, he worked construction jobs while training, slowly building a career few believed possible.

Now a UFC champion and global brand ambassador, Merab has a chance at UFC 316 to cement his place in history — not just as a belt-holder, but as one of the most dominant bantamweights the UFC has seen.

Sean O’Malley: Precision, Power, and the Pursuit of Redemption

If Dvalishvili is the grinder, Sean O’Malley is the sniper.

With his long-range striking, knockout power, and unorthodox flair, “Sugar” Sean became one of the UFC’s most polarizing stars—and proved himself elite when he defeated Aljamain Sterling for the title at UFC 292.

• 12 UFC wins, 9 via KO/TKO.

• Strike accuracy over 59%, one of the highest in the division.

• Explosive finishes, including walk-off knockouts that went viral.

O’Malley’s loss to Dvalishvili at UFC 306 marked a turning point.

While many praised his ability to survive the Georgian’s pace, it also exposed weaknesses in his wrestling defense.

Since then, insiders report a reinvigorated O’Malley, sharpening his grappling and preparing for 25 minutes of constant movement and adjustment.

With his marketability, striking pedigree, and fanbase, a win at UFC 316 would not only reclaim the belt — it would reestablish O’Malley as the centerpiece of the bantamweight division.

Styles Make Fights: Tactical Insights & Key Betting Lines

This is more than a rematch. It’s a style vs. style chess match:

1. Wrestling vs. striking: Can O’Malley stop the takedown and keep the fight standing?

2. Pace vs. precision: Will Dvalishvili's output overwhelm or open him up to counters?

3. Cardio vs. timing: Can Merab maintain pressure, or will Sean find his moment?

Key Betting Lines

From a betting angle, Dvalishvili’s fights often go the distance (11 of 12 UFC wins by decision), while O’Malley remains a constant KO threat.

• Fight To Go The Distance: -260

• Method of Ending

  • Decision (-270, FanDuel)

  • KO/TKO/DQ (+320, FanDuel)

  • Submission (+840, Fanatics)

• Method of Victory

  • Dvalishvili by Decision (-150, FanDuel)

  • O’Malley by KO (+400, Fanatics)

  • O’Malley by Decision (+790, Fanatics)

  • Dvalishvili by KO (+925, Fanatics)

This Week In Sports Betting

🏀 NBA Finals are set: Game 1 has the OKC Thunder favored by -9.5 at home against the Indiana Pacers (Thursday, June 5)

🏒 NHL Finals are (also) set: Puck drop for Game 1 (Wednesday) at 8:00pm ET, with the Edmonton Oilers favored (-125) at home against the Florida Panthers

⚾️ MLB schedule this week

🏈 Only 95 days until the first regular season NFL game, and 83 days until College Football kicks off week 1. Stay strong.

Slip of the Week

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