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Issue #36
Weekly Bets, Understanding Implied Probability, and March Madness Continues On.
The Locksmith
March 24, 2025
In This Issue:
Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks
Last Week: 1-2 | -1u
Quentin Grimes Under 2.5 Threes ❌ | The UNDERground Lab
VCU +3.5 vs BYU ❌ | Peak Picks
March Madness 1+ Buzzer Beater ✅ | Locksmith
2025 Record: 18-16 | +3.12u ✍️
It’s hard to deny, however, that both these were fluky and unlike Kon.
In his first game, he didn’t even play half the game and was playing more passive with such a big lead.
Against Baylor, it was evident that it was Tyrese Proctor’s day (25 points, 7/8 from three), along with Flagg putting up 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists.
If Arizona wants any chance of beating Duke, they will have to throw their two best defenders (Carter Bryant and Jaden Bradley) on Flagg and Proctor.
I feel that the Wildcats will look to make anyone but those two score, which should lead to Knueppel getting more open looks.
He’s always capable but I’m going to fade.
The bigger picture shows that w/ the starting line up in 30-35 mins (between his season average), Hali averages 9.3 assists per game with a median of 9.
Most of his assists go to Siakam and Nesmith on the wings as both tend to drive in and create off Hali’s passes.
However, I like the Wolves defense in this one to stop these forwards from getting in as they have Gobert anchoring the paint once again alongside McDaniels.
Recent trend shows that the Wolves haven’t allowed opposing forwards to get volume and in the paint and are defending pretty well along the baseline.
If Hali is going to go under this line, Siakam and Nesmith are going to have to be contained and I think the Wolves do just that.
Plus money here in a regression spot is likely IMO. I’ll take it here 🤝🏽
He has played well so far this season with two top 10s and his worst finish being T25 at the Waste Management Open, but needs to get a victory before defending his green jacket in a couple weeks.
This is a course that rewards players off the tee (and particularly on par 5s) as well as strokes gained on the approach.
Scottie ranks 6th and 11th on tour respectively.
This course is lengthy, which benefits great ball strikers who don’t make mistakes, AKA Scottie Scheffler.
Understanding Implied Probability
Implied probability is a cornerstone for sports bettors, translating odds into a more tangible “chance of winning” as perceived by bookmakers.
Bettors use this tool as a way of comparing bookmakers’ expectations against their own to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Coin Flip Example
A coin flip offers a 50% chance for heads and 50% for tails—implied probability clearly visible with each side at even money (+100).
A true 50/50 chance
If tails moved to +200 while heads remained at +100, tails now has an implied probability of 33.3%, offering more potential value if your actual prediction of tails remains at 50% (it should).
The bettor’s "edge" would be 16.7%, indicating a positive value opportunity.
Bettors Probability (50%) minus Implied Probability (33.3%) = 16.7%
"Real World" Implied Probability
Getting any of the odds in the example above isn’t really something you’d see in the sports betting world.
It would be more like:
Bookmakers "bake in" a profit margin within their lines, commonly know as the vig.
This allows the bookmaker to secure a profit regardless of an event’s outcome.
If two teams have moneyline odds of -110, each team’s implied probability is 52.38% for a total of 104.76%.
When bookmakers set lines for less popular markets or bets that are more difficult to analyze, they add additional vig to decrease risk.
Implied Prob. Slightly Over 100%: Indicates a smaller margin, suggesting efficient lines often found in popular and well-analyzed markets.
Implied Prob. Significantly Over 100%: Indicates higher profit margins, typically present in less popular markets where the bookmaker’s risk is greater.
Actionable Takeaways for Bettors
Recognize that bookmakers include a profit margin, and bettors try to find scenarios with a higher probability than what’s implied by the odds.
Some bettors focus on markets with lower vig that are "easier" to analyze, while others may try to exploit lesser known markets and leagues.
The top bettors are continuously analyzing and recalibrating their approach by comparing predicted probabilities to actual results
The goal is NOT to be perfect - It’s to improve your accuracy over time
Even if you don’t integrate implied probability into your daily betting strategy, it’s a concept worth understanding for every bettor.
The next time you see an Over/Under at -115 on both sides, you know what’s going on.
March Madness: Rounds 1 & 2 Betting Recap
Rounds 1 & 2 have delivered plenty of surprise and excitement so far, with a break over the next couple days before the Sweet Sixteen tips off.
But before we get #10 Arkansas vs. #3 Texas Tech, let’s recap how bettors fared in the first two rounds.
Round 1 Recap
Drake Downs Missouri: The Drake Bulldogs, a popular bet at +210 moneyline, stunned sixth-seeded Missouri as 5.5-point underdogs.
A high ticket count on Drake paid off for the public as their defense and timely scoring led to a 10-point victory.
The line movement from Missouri -4.5 to a high of -7, before settling at -6.
Creighton Bodies Louisville: Creighton cashed as a +125 underdog, beating Louisville by 14.
McNeese Upsets Clemson: As the day’s biggest underdog at +275, McNeese State held off a last-minute push by Clemson.
High Point Falls to Purdue: Despite significant moneyline action on High Point, Purdue proved too strong, pulling away late in the game.
Round 2 Recap
Tennessee vs. UCLA: Tennessee opened as a -4.5 favorite, attracting 92% of the handle. They covered, winning by 9 points.
St. John’s Edge in Action: Red Storm was heavily backed with 90% of the early handle, pushing their spread to -7.5 against Arkansas.
In perhaps the biggest upset of the second round, Arkansas advanced with a score of 75-66.
Auburn Shuts Down Creighton: Creighton was heavily backed at +9.5, but couldn’t get it done in the end.
They fell to the #1 seed in the South Region 70-82.
Wisconsin and BYU Showdown: With Wisconsin a mere 1.5-point favorite, bettors were nearly evenly split on the spread and moneyline.
BYU nudged out the Badgers in the end, winning 91-89.
Houston vs. Gonzaga: Nearly 70% of moneyline bets were on a Gonzaga upset, indicating strong belief in another potential underdog victory (+5.5).
Gonzaga ended up covering the spread with a score of 76-81, but couldn’t get over the hump against the overall #3 team according to the NCAA committee.
Sunday’s Games
UConn/Florida Backdoor Over: Florida edged out UConn 77-75, with the Over of 150.5 hitting on a meaningless buzzer-beater by Liam McNeeley.
BetMGM reported 87% of wagers were on the Over.
Alabama (-5.5), Duke (-12.5), Kentucky (+2), and Ole Miss (+5.5) cover and advance to the Sweet Sixteen
Sweet 16 Opening Lines
Even though we’ll have to wait a few days, here’s a look at how the bookmakers see Thursday and Friday’s matchups.
Thursday, March 27
West Region
Florida1 (32-4) vs. Maryland4 (27-8) | 7:39pm ET
Florida -6.5
O/U: 155.5
Arkansas10 (22-13) vs. Texas Tech3 (27-8) | 10:09pm ET
Texas Tech -5.5
O/U: 147.5
East Region
Duke1 (33-3) vs. Arizona4 (24-12) | 9:39pm ET
Duke -8.5
O/U:153.5
BYU6 (26-9) vs. Alabama2 (27-8) | 7:09pm ET
Alabama -5.5
O/U: 175.5
Friday, March 28
Midwest Region
Houston1 (32-4) vs. Purdue (24-11) | 10:09pm ET
Houston -7.5
O/U: 132.5
Kentucky3 (24-11) vs. Tennessee2 (29-7) | 7:39pm ET
Tennessee -4.5
O/U: 145.5
South Region
Auburn1 (30-5) vs. Michigan5 (27-9) | 9:39pm ET
Auburn -8.5
O/U: 153.5
Ole Miss6 (24-11) vs. Michigan State2 (29-6) | 7:39pm ET
Michigan State -2.5
O/U: 143.5
Slip of the Week
It takes guts to place this one, but a win is a win 🏆
If you enjoyed this issue, pass it on to a fellow sports betting enthusiast! 👇
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