Sports Betting: May 26 - June 1, 2025

• Causation vs Correlation in Sports Betting

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• This Week In Sports Betting

Causation vs Correlation in Sports Betting: The Edge Lies in the Why

In sports betting, recognizing a trend is easy.

Understanding why it exists — and whether it actually matters — is where the real edge lies.

Many bettors chase correlations, assuming a repeated pattern signals a winning opportunity.

But without identifying causation, they’re often just betting on coincidence.

Professional bettors know: surface-level correlations mislead, while causal relationships uncover true value.

The Difference is More Than Just Semantics

Correlation is interesting, but causation is valuable.

Correlation: A Relationship, Not a Cause

Correlation happens when two variables move together - either in the same direction (positive correlation) or opposite directions (negative correlation).

But it doesn’t mean one causes the other.

• Example: Team A wins more games when wearing their alternate jerseys. That’s a correlation - not necessarily a reason for their wins.

Or, a deeper example:

Causation: A Direct Cause-and-Effect Link

Causation is a direct, testable relationship - when one variable change produces a change in another.

It’s a stronger, more conclusive relationship.

• Example: A quarterback’s shoulder injury leads to decreased deep ball accuracy and lower red zone efficiency.

Move from Patterns to Proof

To move beyond interesting patterns and into actionable insight, bettors must learn to separate what looks predictive from what actually is predictive.

That means applying a causal lens — not just spotting trends, but asking: What’s really driving this?

1. Identifying Confounders: Beware the Hidden Third Variable

Confounders/confounding variables: Hidden influences that make it difficult to tell if a change in one variable truly causes a change in another.

Some trends look casual on the surface - until you realize another factor is quietly influencing both variables.

Example: Late-game timeouts often correlate with comeback wins. But “timeout usage” isn’t the cause - the real driver is score differential.

Teams trailing by a few points are naturally more aggressive, calling timeouts and playing faster.

If you (live) bet based solely on timeouts, you’re reacting to a side effect, not the root cause.

2. Confirm Temporal Precedence: The Cause Has to Come First

A basic rule of causation: If X causes Y, then X must happen before Y.

Example: West Coast teams underperforming in early East Coast games seems like a travel issue — but deeper analysis reveals it's actually about circadian rhythm misalignment, especially for games that kick off before 1 PM Eastern.

Travel is a factor, but timing is the true causal mechanism.

3. Look for a Dose-Response Relationship: More Input, More Effect

If something really causes an outcome, you should see a consistent, scalable effect.

Example: Many "elite passers" in the NBA are praised for boosting team efficiency.

But a league-wide study revealed that only 23% of these players actually demonstrated a proportional impact - where higher assist rates reliably led to more team scoring.

Without this kind of dose-response, correlation loses credibility.

4. Map the Mechanism: Understand the How

The most convincing causal claims come with a logical path - a mechanism that connects input to outcome.

Example: Launch angle became a trendy MLB stat tied to power hitting.

But stripped of biomechanics and pitch type, it lost predictive value.

Smart bettors now focus on how specific swing-pitch matchups influence outcomes, not just generic launch data.

Correlation Traps in the Wild

• "The under hits in rainy games." There might be a correlation here, but does rain cause fewer points, or are teams playing more conservatively?

• "Team X always wins at home on Monday nights." Is it because of the day and venue, or because they’re simply a good team?

• "They looked unstoppable last game, they’ll crush again tonight." That’s the halo effect - letting one good performance over-inflate your view of a team's true ability.

• "They’ve lost 5 in a row, they’re due for a win." That’s called gambler’s fallacy - believing past randomness somehow guarantees future results.

• "Every time I bet on this team they lose!" This is emotional reasoning - your memory of losses feels stronger than the statistical reality.

Why Bettors Should Care

In sports betting, correlation is interesting — but causation is valuable.

Anyone can spot a pattern, but understanding what drives it is the difference between gambling and strategy.

Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

Last Week: 3-1 | +1.82u

• Logan Allen Under 3.5 Ks (+100) ✅ / The UNDERground Lab

• 0.5u: Hunter Dobbins Under 3.5 Ks (+114) ✅ / The UNDERground Lab

• Oilers ML Game 1 (+107) ❌ / Peak Picks

• Nick Lodolo 6+ Ks (+125) ✅ / Locksmith

2025 Record: 33-29 | +5.22u

Only one play this week:

This Week In Sports Betting

🏀 NBA Playoffs

• Western Conference: Thunder lead Timberwolves 2-1 | Game 4 @ 8:30pm ET

  • OKC -3.5 | O/U: 218.5

  • Game 5: May 28 (Wednesday) | 8:30pm

• Eastern Conference: Pacers lead Knicks 2-1

  • Game 4: May 27 (Tuesday) | 8:00pm

    • IND -132 | O/U: 220.5

🏒 NHL Playoffs

• Western Conference: Oilers lead Stars 2-1

  • Game 4: May 27 (Tuesday) | 8:00pm

    • EDM -160 | O/U: 6.5

• Eastern Conference: Panthers lead Hurricanes 3-0 | Game 4 @ 8:00pm

  • FLA -170 | O/U: 5.5

  • Game 5 (if needed): May 28 (Wednesday) | 8:00pm

⚽️ UEFA Champions League Final

On Saturday May 31, Inter Milan faces off against PSG in Allianz Arena (München, Germany) at 3pm ET.

• Moneyline: PSG +125 | INT +220 | Draw +225

• Total: 2.5

The clubs have never met in a competitive match, but have played 5 exhibition matches.

• PSG is 3-1-1 in those matches

⚾️ MLB

As of today, roughly 33% of the MLB season has elapsed

• This week’s complete MLB schedule, courtesy of Hashtag Baseball

  • My favorite site for viewing weather conditions at MLB parks