Today's Slate

• How Sportsbooks Spend to Win You Over

  • Why Should You Care?

  • Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

  • Monday Night Football: Dolphins @ Rams

    • What The Big Networks Are Betting

  • Slip of the Week

How Sportsbooks Spend to Win You Over

You've probably seen hundreds of ads and promotions from sportsbooks—maybe it was a TV commercial with Kevin Hart during the big game, a billboard on the street, or an email promising the latest bonus or odds boost.

In fact, you've probably seen so many that you now tune most of them out, like background noise at a crowded sports bar.

But have you ever wondered just how much these sportsbooks are shelling out to grab your attention?

We're talking marketing budgets that could rival the GDP of a small country.

And while you might be tempted to brush off these ads as just another part of the game, understanding the dollars behind them can actually make you a smarter bettor.

2024 Marketing Spend From Top Sportsbooks

The graph below outlines a low and high estimate for 7 respective sportsbooks.

But what exactly is included in “Marketing Spend”?

• TV & Radio Commercials

• Online Advertising (think Google/YouTube/TikTok etc.)

• Sponsorships (Logo placement)

• Bonuses & Promotions (for bettors like you)

Unsurprisingly, DraftKings is the top reported spender, estimated to be between $500-$600 million in 2024 so far.

Bet365 and FanDuel round out the top 3, and I have to admit I was a bit surprised that ESPN Bet was so low.

• I have to think this is mainly because the connection with ESPN (TV, news, app, etc.) lead to “free” marketing for the sportsbook.

A Peek Inside the Sportsbook Marketing Playbook

So we know sportsbooks are shelling out hundreds of millions each year…

But how exactly are they spending it?

Unsurprisingly, the bulk of spend goes into TV/Radio and Online Advertising.

It’s not that surprising for two reasons:

1. These two forms of advertising tend to be more expensive than other forms

2. Sports bettors usually follow their bets on TV, and use different online resources to research future bets

The thing that sticks out most to me is that ESPN Bet puts the most into bonuses and promotions, at around 30% of their total spend.

Bonuses offered by DraftKings and FanDuel surprised me - I would’ve expect a higher percentage for both of them.

So Why Should You Care?

Just because a sportsbook is plastered all over your screen doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best choice.

It just means they are spending big to to catch your eye.

Focus on the sportsbooks that put more money into your bankroll.

I know firsthand that ESPN Bet offers deposit match bonuses like candy on Halloween, and DraftKings/FanDuel aren’t too far behind.

Just don’t forget to withdraw everything know and then and put some money in your pocket.

Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Picks

Recapping last week’s picks:

• DeAndre Hopkins o43.5 recYDS ✅

• Chase McLaughlin u1.5 XP 🚫

• Rachaad White o59.5 RRyds 🚫

Overall Record: 9-13 | -2.38u

The Dolphins have plenty of weapons on offense, and will need to stretch the field in order to have a chance against the Rams.

Achane will surely carry the load in this game, but Mostert should see multiple receiving targets and is dangerous in space.

The Rams o-line are also coming back in the form of Avila and Jackson so Williams should be tasked with less snaps in the pass blocking department, which could open up more attempts for Corum in the rushing game.

A cleaner pocket for Stafford also means more passing plays which the Rams should execute against a Dolphins defense who are 22nd in pressure rate and 27th in DVOA against the pass.

With the Rams playoff window opening in this short week for them since they have the Pats this Sunday, i think Williams workload will be shortened.

The Rams are also finally healthy so no need for Williams to be rushing 20+.

• Give me the under here!

Dolphins are a play on spot for me at +2.5.

Another route would be to include them in a teaser with the Commanders on TNF.

I think Kentucky’s experience will show out early, and I expect this game to be back and forth all the way throughout.

This isn’t the traditional Kentucky team we are used to.

I can’t remember the last time UK didn’t start at least one freshman.

Instead, they will start four seniors and a junior, with plenty of firepower on the bench.

I think Williams and Garrison will give Duke fits down low and Brea and Kriisa off the bench will be key spark plugs to ignite a Kentucky cover.

Wisconsin hasn’t been great this season, but they’ve had a harsh schedule.

• Week 3: vs Alabama, L 10-42

• Week 4: @ USC, L 21-38

• Week 8: vs Penn State, L 13-28

• Week 9: @ Iowa, L 10-42

So why isn’t this just any other game for Oregon?

Despite being the unanimous #1 team in the country, this is a game Oregon can’t afford to drop the ball.

Dan Lanning and Dillon Gabriel will play this exactly like they’ve played every game this season - until the final whistle blows.

• Getting less than 2 touchdowns at -115 seals this one for me

Monday Night Football: Dolphins @ Rams

Tonight, we get the 2-6 Dolphins heading into SoFi Stadium to go up against the 4-4 Rams.

The Rams are slight favorites at -2.5, with the over/under set at 48.5 points.

Both teams are looking to shake off recent struggles, with the Rams riding a three-game winning streak and the Dolphins hoping to snap a three-game skid.

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa is back under center but the Dolphins have yet to find their groove, going 0-2 since his return.

Despite averaging 27 points per game in the last two outings, Miami's offense is hampered by injuries, notably to star receiver Tyreek Hill, who is questionable with a wrist injury.

Without Hill, the Dolphins may lean heavily on rookie running back De’Von Achane, who has been a dual threat but faces a Rams defense that has been stingy against the run.

Miami's defense has been porous all season long, ranking last in EPA per play allowed over the past two games.

They struggle to generate pressure, ranking 22nd in pressure rate, which could spell trouble against a Rams offense that thrives with a clean pocket.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are hitting their stride with Matthew Stafford at the helm, especially with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both healthy and ready to exploit Miami's secondary.

• Stafford's performance from a clean pocket is stellar, completing 74.5% of his passes this season.

The offensive line is bolstered by the return of Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila, which should provide Stafford with ample time to dissect the Miami defense.

The Rams' defense is still one of the best in the NFL, also ranking second in pressure rate.

This could be a nightmare for Tagovailoa, whose turnover-worthy play rate skyrockets under pressure.

The Rams have also been effective against the run, which could neutralize Miami's ground game and force them into a one-dimensional attack.

Betting Preview

Spread

With 60% of bets on the Rams to cover, the public seems confident in Los Angeles.

Given Miami's struggles and the Rams' recent form, backing the Rams at -2.5 seems prudent.

Total Points

The over/under has seen a little bit of action, dropping from 49.5 to 48.5.

While both offenses have potential, the Rams' defensive prowess and Miami's inconsistency make the under an intriguing play.

Moneyline

The Rams are favored at -142, and with their home advantage and Miami's road woes, they seem a solid pick to win outright.

The Bottom Line

The Rams are in a great position to extend their winning streak, leveraging their defensive strength and a rejuvenated offense.

Miami's reliance on the run game, coupled with potential absences in their receiving corps, plays perfectly into the Rams' hands.

Expect Los Angeles to control the game flow, with Stafford exploiting Miami's defensive lapses.

What The Big Networks Are Betting

Action Network

• Rams -2.5

• Over 48.5

• Rockets -13.5

• Pelicans Team Total Under 105.5

• Ivica Zubac o28.5 PR

Covers

• T. Tagovailoa 1+ INT

• D. Achane o105.5 RR yds

• Achane ATD

Pickswise

• Dolphins +2.5

• Over 49

• Achane o12.5 Rush Attempts

• Jonnu Smith ATD

• Cooper Kupp ATD

VSiN

• Rams ML

• Stafford o1.5 Pass TDs

Slip of the Week

Lions won last night.