Table of Contents

• Recapping Last Week’s Picks

  • This Week’s Picks

  • Texans vs. Cowboys Betting Preview: MNF

  • Best CBB Games This Week

  • Best College Football Games This Week

Recapping Last Week’s Picks

INSANE week from these cappers, and there are more to come this week.

• R. Mostert 25+ RecYDS (0.5u) ✅

• Kyren Williams u20.5 Rush Attempts ✅

• Dolphins +2.5 ✅

• Kentucky +6.5 v Duke ✅

• Oregon -12.5 👎

Finally turn positive for the 3rd time, but our highest unit gain so far.

Overall Record: 13-14 | +1.66u 📈

All plays are 1 unit unless stated otherwise.

This Week’s Picks

That’s mostly due to getting blown out most nights as they have let opponents control the game script.

However, it’s MNF and an inner state matchup that usually brings out an extra edge to players.

• Also, Mixon’s backup Pearce is back and logged a full practice last week which suggests that he won’t be limited.

Collins is also back that could produce more play calls on the passing game especially against a Dallas secondary that’s going into this game without Bland still and now Lewis.

Also, a short week for the Texans who have the Titans this Sunday and have now lost 2 straight, so I expect them to manage Mixon’s workload moving forward and utilize the other returning bodies more in this matchup as they look to run away in the AFC South.

If you want to test the size of your gonads, you can turn it into 2+ goals.

• +800 on BetMGM

Coming off a huge “upset” against BYU, Kansas looks to continue their little run after beating two straight ranked opponents.

• This year, as a 2.5 point underdog or more, Kansas is 3-1 (SU), and I see that trend continuing.

Although I don’t mind a ML sprinkle, give me the Jayhawks against the spread in Arrowhead Stadium.

All-American D-Lineman Howard Cross is unlikely to play due to a left ankle injury.

Notre Dame is already missing star cornerback Benjamin Morrison, and 2023 Nagurski trophy winner Xavier Watts has been battling both a shoulder and ankle injury.

• The Bronko Nagurski trophy is awarded to the best defensive player in college football

But obviously the sportsbooks know this - so why do I think I know better than them?

I’ve watched nearly every snap Notre Dame and its opponents have taken this season, and if there’s one thing the Irish don’t do exceptionally well in the beginning of games.

Even at home this season, the Irish have given up first quarter points to NIU, Louisville, Stanford, and Florida State.

While Army hasn’t played an defense close to Notre Dame’s caliber, they start games strong.

• At plus odds, I can’t deny this play to the people.

Texans vs. Cowboys Betting Preview: MNF

Tonight’s clash between the Houston Texans (6-4) and the Dallas Cowboys (3-6) brings intrigue as the Cowboys look for their first home win of the season without key offensive pieces, while the Texans aim to solidify their lead in the AFC South.

Line Movement and Betting Trends

• Spread: Texans -7 (opened at -7.5 at most sportsbooks).

  • Despite 71% of the tickets being placed on the Texans, the line has shifted toward the Cowboys, signaling potential sharp money on Dallas.

• Total: 41.5 (available at 41 in some markets).

  • FanDuel lists the total at 42 with lower juice on the under, suggesting potential value for bettors favoring a lower-scoring affair.

• Historical ATS Trends:

  • Teams coming off a loss of 28+ points and as underdogs of 7+ points are 56.7% ATS over the past 20 years and 66.6% ATS over the last five years.

  • Cowboys QB Cooper Rush is 4-2 ATS as an underdog in his career.

Houston Texans

The Texans boast the NFL’s 2nd-ranked defense by DVOA, anchored by an opportunistic secondary that excels at forcing turnovers.

They rank 2nd in interception rate, which could be pivotal against Dallas QB Cooper Rush.

On the other hand, Houston has struggled to establish a consistent rushing attack on early downs and relies heavily on its defense to maintain leads.

The offense remains in the bottom third of DVOA, with QB C.J. Stroud under heavy pressure in recent weeks.

Player to Watch: Nico Collins

Collins returns after a five-game absence, looking to reignite an offense that has lacked explosiveness.

Before his injury, Collins averaged 113 receiving yards per game and will face a Cowboys secondary that has allowed the third-most yards per reception this season.

Dallas Cowboys

Despite struggles in other areas, the Cowboys’ defense has been a bright spot, ranking 5th in pressure rate.

This will be crucial against a Texans offensive line that has allowed C.J. Stroud to face pressure on over 40% of dropbacks in four consecutive games.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys’ offense has sputtered without Dak Prescott, averaging just 13.5 PPG over the past two games.

While the run game has shown flashes of potential, it has lacked consistency throughout the season and there’s no real reason to expect this game to be much different.

Player to Watch: Micah Parsons

Parsons’ return to the lineup adds a dynamic edge to the Dallas defense.

His ability to disrupt opposing QBs will be critical in pressuring Stroud and limiting Houston’s big-play potential.

Dallas will likely lean on its run game more heavily than usual to avoid testing Houston’s secondary.

Success on the ground is crucial for keeping the Cowboys competitive tonight.

However, don’t be surprised if the Cowboys take deep shots throughout the game.

After all, they didn’t pay Ceedee Lamb $136 million to block for the run.

Best CBB Games This Week

Monday, November 18

• Gonzaga³ @ San Diego State | 10pm EST

  • Gonzaga -10.5

  • O/U 149.5

Tuesday, November 19

• Purdue⁶ @ Marquette¹⁵ | 9pm EST

Wednesday, November 20

• Illinois²⁵ @ Alabama⁸ | 9pm EST

Thursday, November 21

• Baylor¹³ v St. John’s²² | 7pm EST

  • Bahamas Championship

• Virginia v Tennessee¹¹ | 9pm EST

  • Bahamas Championship

Friday, November 22

• Wisconsin¹⁹ v UCF | 5pm EST

• Duke¹² v Arizona¹⁷ | 10:30pm EST

Best College Football Games This Week

Saturday, November 23

12pm Slate

• Indiana⁵ @ Ohio State²

  • OSU -13.5

  • O/U 51.5

• Ole Miss¹¹ @ Florida

  • Ole Miss -11

  • O/U 55.5

3:30pm Slate

• Kentucky @ Texas³

  • Texas -20.5

  • O/U 47.5

• Colorado¹⁷ @ Kansas

  • Colorado -3

  • O/U 59.5

4:00pm

• Pittsburgh @ Louisville¹⁹

  • Louisville -8.5

  • O/U 57.5

7:00pm

• Army²⁴ @ Notre Dame⁸

  • Notre Dame -14

  • O/U 44.5

7:30pm

• Texas A&M¹⁵ @ Auburn

  • A&M -2.5

  • O/U 47.5

7:45pm

• Vanderbilt @ LSU²²

  • LSU -7.5

  • O/U 54.5

Extremely short issue this week after spending a long weekend in Vegas.

We’ll be back to normal next week 🫡