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- Issue #70
This Week…
This Week’s Betting Picks
Last Week: 1-1 | -0.09u
Jared Goff Under 31.5 Passing Attempts (-103) ❌ | The UNDERground Lab
Charlotte +44.5 (-110) ✅ / Locksmith
2025 Record: 70-53 | +17.22u
I expect Titans to actually keep this game close given the -5.5 spread in a divisional game thus reducing the need for Spears' change of pace routes.
Devin Lloyd's return for the Jags has bolstered their ability to control the line of scrimmage.
Expect less room for Spears to operate in space since most of his damage comes on the ground and not air.
Perfect time for an UNDER. Let’s get it.
Rivalry Week Best Bets
South Carolina is just 4-7, but SP+ and market numbers see this Palmetto Bowl as essentially a toss-up, with Clemson only fractionally rated higher overall.
The Gamecocks bring a top-30 defense and top-20 special teams unit into a home game where the line still asks Clemson to win outright despite only a modest efficiency edge and a weaker profile in two of three phases.
With Williams-Brice providing a strong home boost and Carolina priced as a small favorite in a near coin-flip projection, I'm leaning into South Carolina's home-field and defensive stability over Clemson’s still-uneven offense.
They'll face an 8-3 Tennessee squad in Knoxville, with the Vols around a field-goal favorite.
Implied odds give Vanderbilt roughly a mid-40s win probability and a projected score near 34–31, which mirrors the gap in ranking but also shows both offenses as top-10 scoring units capable of volatility.
With Vandy consistently outperforming market expectations (9-2 ATS) and Tennessee only slightly favored at home, taking plus money on an offense that is ninth nationally in points per game and already comfortable in big-stage environments is a calculated plus-money swing.
⚠️ 0.5u play
But the context matters.
Both teams are in the CFP mix, Michigan is 9-2, and The Game has not been a Buckeye win since the 2019-2020 season.
OSU was ranked higher in each of the last 4 matchups, the latest of which being #2 against an unranked Michigan team.
Ohio State will face its toughest road test of the season, and quite arguably its toughest opponent of the season.
Grabbing +10.5 captures multiple paths to cover (competitive loss, late score inside the number, or outright upset) in a rivalry that historically tightens up more than the raw power rating gap suggests.
Michigan State sits at 3-7 and winless in conference, now turning to freshman Alessio Milivojevec at quarterback after injuries and benching Aidan Chiles, and has blown at least one late lead (up 17–7 vs Iowa before losing on a last-second field goal).
The market has tightened this game from MSU -4.5 to around -3.5 with Maryland’s moneyline moving into the +150/+170 range, signaling sharper interest in the Terps and leaving you plus money on the more explosive passing offense against a home favorite that has struggled to finish games.
⚠️ 0.5u play
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