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Issue #64
2 NFL Best Bets, NCAA Allowing Player to Bet, & Other Betting Industry News
The Locksmith
October 11, 2025
This Week…
This Week’s Betting Picks
Last Week: 2-0 | +1.78u
Dak Prescott u243.5 Pass Yards (-115) ✅ | The UNDERground Lab
Houston Texans -1.5 (-110) ✅ / Locksmith
2025 Record: 62-48 | +14.66u
Gabriel isn’t an effective deep passer also and didn’t really look for deep balls vs the Vikings.
I emphasize this because the Steelers are probably going to try to control the line of scrimmage while the Browns continue to try to play it safe with short passes to limit turnovers.
DC Austin spoke highly of Judkins and will probably game plan to contain him since Gabriel isn’t really stretching the field with his arm.
The Steelers are also coming off their bye week while the Browns are coming into town from London.
These factors matter too because to control the line of scrimmage, the Steelers have the edge here with their d-line who have stepped up against the run after a slow start and are on rest.
Meanwhile, the Browns o-line ranks 30th in PFF run block grade and have been wildly inconsistent.
Expect the Steelers to emphasize tackling on Judkins to limit yards after contact and there’s also always a chance for a negative game script so give us the UNDER on this inflated line (IMO).
Both teams have leaned run-heavy and conservative, with Denver’s defense improving and the Jets missing weapons and struggling all season.
Four of Denver’s last five games have gone under, and neutral-site games like this often start slow with travel adjustment.
Expect stud CB Pat Surtain to lock down Garrett Wilson, limiting the Jets' ability to stretch the field and forcing the Jets to be even more one-dimensional
Both defenses should set the tone against inconsistent, low-upside offenses - making UNDER 43.5 a value angle.
NCAA Close to Letting College Athletes Bet on Pro Sports
College sports just took a big step toward normalizing betting.
The NCAA Division I Administrative Committee voted Wednesday to allow student-athletes and athletics staff to bet on professional sports, pending approval from Division II and Division III committees later this month.
DI Administrative Committee votes to remove restrictions on gambling on pro sports. Rule cannot change unless also approved by Divisions II and III.
More on the potential changes ⤵️
— NCAA News (@NCAA_PR)
4:01 PM • Oct 8, 2025
If all three divisions sign off, the change takes effect November 1st.
The Key Details
Under the new rules, college athletes would still be banned from wagering on college sports or sharing insider information, but they could legally bet on NFL, NBA, MLB, and other pro leagues.
This marks a major departure from the NCAA's blanket prohibition, which previously banned athletes from betting on any sport sponsored by the NCAA at any level.
Timing Couldn't Be More Ironic
The vote comes as the NCAA is deep in the weeds with gambling violations.
Just last month, three basketball players received permanent bans for manipulating their performances to win prop bets - Robinson and Vasquez from Fresno State/San Jose State earned $15,950 by coordinating Robinson's underperformance in specific statistical categories.
Meanwhile, 13 more former players from six schools (Eastern Michigan, Temple, Arizona State, New Orleans, North Carolina A&T, and Mississippi Valley) face ongoing investigations for betting on their own games and game manipulation.
Not a great look.
Why It Matters
The NCAA's play here is smart enforcement strategy disguised as progressive policy.
By allowing pro sports betting, they can focus limited resources on protecting college game integrity while acknowledging the reality that athletes are already betting in a legal market.
Josh Whitman, the committee chair, put it plainly: this lets the NCAA "focus on protecting the integrity of college games" rather than policing every NFL bet.
For sharp bettors, watch how this impacts college prop markets.
NCAA President Charlie Baker has repeatedly called for eliminating college player props entirely, and this rule change gives the association more political cover to push that agenda.
The fewer props available on college games, the fewer opportunities for manipulation - and fewer betting options for everyone else.
In Other News…
Next Week
Next week’s newsletter dives into the top sports betting podcasts every bettor should have on their radar.
From deep-dive strategy sessions to real-time odds analysis and insider interviews, these shows pack insights you won’t get anywhere else.
Stay tuned!
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