This Week…

• Betting Picks

• FanDuel Pays Jaguars After Theft

  • My Take

• WAGER Act Returns

  • My Take

This Week’s Betting Picks

Last Week: 2-1 | +0.89u

• NC State -2.5 (-145) ✅ / Locksmith

• 0.5u: Spencer Rattler 2+ Pass TDs (+229) ❌ / Locksmith

• 0.5u: Rome Odunze Anytime TD (+240) ✅ / Locksmith

2025 Record: 55-42 | +11.91u

Despite being 2-0, the Aggies' run defense has been their Achilles' heel early this season.

Against UTSA in week one, they surrendered 177 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Robert Henry Jr., including a 75-yard touchdown scamper.

Mike Elko acknowledged these were "correctable" issues, but the fundamental problems remain: missed tackles at the second level and poor run fits that create massive gaps.

Their defense is built to slant and redirect at the line, but when assignments are missed up front, explosive plays become inevitable.

• Love will be Notre Dame's goal-line back, but should see plenty of opportunity throughout the game

Why will Notre Dame win this game?

This Saturday marks A&M's first true test of 2025, coming into the hostile environment of Notre Dame Stadium against a team that's already been battle-tested on the road at Miami.

Notre Dame has the upside on all-around depth, and in the quarterback matchup.

CJ Carr showed poise in his debut at Miami, completing 19 of 30 passes for 221 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing score.

Marcel Reed, while mobile, has thrown just 23 touchdown passes in his career compared to 7 interceptions and struggled with consistency in big games last season.

Combining Love's proven touchdown consistency against a vulnerable run defense with Notre Dame's home-field advantage against a program that historically struggles in big road games against ranked opponents, there's excellent value at -103 odds.

Playable up to -125

Conversely, the Browns are one dimensional with Flacco.

His first instinct is pass but when you have a one-dimensional offense, it should be easy for the Ravens to gameplan.

The spread for this game is -11 which indicates a blow out and when you have a team that emphasizes the run like the Ravens do then the other team will have less opportunities on the field.

If Ravens can shut the Browns mediocre run game down early, this will put pressure on Flacco to create.

His immobility and not being able to create much off the scramble on top of his tendency to turn the ball over, the Ravens pass rush should have more success unlike when they faced the Bills.

Let’s not also forget to discuss how terrible the Browns o-line is in pass protection.

Flacco and co are going to have to be almost perfect on offense getting down the field for Flacco to cash this especially if they’re behind and I don’t see that happening.

He crushed this line last week against a weaker Bengals pass rush but given his matchup against Burrows, can we say we’re surprised that they got into a shootout?

Not really and the Ravens present a much different challenge.

I expect their defense to be more crisp and rested since the Ravens should also be in control of the game script.

• Give us the UNDER!!!

In their Week 1 game against Cleveland, the Bengals allowed 10 receptions for 100 yards to tight ends - the 29th worst performance in the league.

This defensive weakness isn't new. Cincinnati finished 25th against tight ends in 2024, consistently struggling with the size-speed mismatches that tight ends create.

Their linebacker corps lacks the coverage speed to stay with athletic tight ends like Strange on intermediate routes.

With the secondary focused on Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, Strange becomes the natural safety valve for Trevor Lawrence in crucial scoring situations.

• Coach Liam Coen confirmed Hunter will see a "likely uptick" in defensive snaps against Cincinnati's elite receiving duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

The Jaguars offense showed strong red zone efficiency in their Week 1 win, and Strange was targeted four times on four receptions for 59 yards.

He's the clear beneficiary of defensive attention elsewhere, facing a Bengals defense that consistently struggles against tight ends, while operating in an offense that should see plenty of scoring opportunities in what projects as a competitive game.

• At +380 odds for a half unit, Strange's anytime touchdown represents excellent value.

The Lions also tend to be an offensive juggernaut at home inside the dome and should have their way with the Bears who look to play a lot of man coverage.

Playing man coverage could give the Lions core chances to make explosive plays on YAC leading to efficient drives for the Lions and less pressure on Goff.

Lions weren’t able to get much going on the ground so expect that to be a point of emphasis too so it can open up play action and screen passes for the Lions where they thrive on.

This should be a positive game script for them this time around and in games last year when they won more than 6 (-6 spread), the median was 28.

33.3 is a great line here for us and I don’t think Goff needs to necessarily get into a shootout with Caleb Williams.

FanDuel Pays Up After Jaguars Employee's $22M Theft

The sportsbook world got a reality check this week when FanDuel agreed to pay the Jacksonville Jaguars approximately $5 million to settle claims related to a massive fraud case.

Former Jaguars finance manager Amit Patel stole $22 million from the team using virtual credit cards and deposited nearly $20 million of it straight into his FanDuel account.

When this story first broke in 2024, FanDuel's initial stance was essentially "not our problem" - they claimed they received the money "fair and clear".

But after NFL pressure and wanting to maintain their official league partnership, FanDuel decided to cut a check for roughly 25% of what Patel deposited.

The crazy details?

• Patel made over 1,000 deposits of $25,000 each while living like a high roller with private jets, luxury hotels, and cryptocurrency investments.

• He's now serving 6.5 years federal time and faces up to 30 more years on Florida state charges.

• He's suing FanDuel for $250 million, claiming they exploited his gambling addiction.

My Take

This case exposes the wild west nature of high-volume betting accounts.

When someone's making daily $25K deposits, that should raise more red flags than a Chinese parade.

The real question is whether this settlement opens the floodgates for other "stolen money" claims against sportsbooks.

Either way, it's another reminder that the house always wins - even when they have to give some back.

WAGER Act Returns: Lawmakers Push to Kill 73-Year-Old Sports Betting Tax

Two senators from gambling strongholds are making another run at eliminating the archaic 0.25% federal excise tax that's been bleeding legal sportsbooks since 1951.

Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) reintroduced the Withdrawing Arduous Gaming Excise Rates (WAGER) Act on Friday, targeting both the "handle tax" on all wagers and the $50-per-employee "head tax".

Don't confuse this with Rep. Andy Barr's separate WAGER Act targeting the gambling loss deduction - apparently Washington loves recycling acronyms as much as politicians love recycling talking points.

The numbers tell the story: Nevada alone paid nearly $22 million in handle taxes in 2022 - almost double their 2019 total as sports betting exploded nationwide.

That's real money getting siphoned from an industry already operating on razor-thin margins.

This 1951 tax code was literally designed to kill gambling, not regulate it.

Now it's giving illegal offshore books a competitive edge over licensed operators who actually pay taxes to states and follow consumer protections.

The bipartisan push comes as Las Vegas visitation has declined in 2025, making tax relief more urgent.

Similar bills are moving in the House, with reps from Nevada and Pennsylvania leading the charge.

My Take

This isn't just about helping sportsbooks - it's about leveling the playing field.

When legal books are paying federal taxes that offshore books avoid, we're incentivizing the black market.

The 0.25% might sound small, but it adds up fast when you're handling billions in action.

Smart money says this has better odds than the previous attempt, especially with bipartisan support and industry pressure mounting.