This Week…

• Betting Picks

• Sleeper Drops the Legal Hammer

  • The Bottom Line

• Football Seasons Fuel Handle In Pennsylvania

This Week’s Betting Picks

Last Week: 1-3 | -1.52u

• Joe Flacco Under 24.5 Pass Completions (-114) ❌ / The UNDERground Lab

• CFB 2-Leg Parlay (-103) ❌ / Locksmith

• 0.5u: Brenton Strange Anytime TD (+380) ❌ / Locksmith

• Jared Goff Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-102) ✅ / The UNDERground Lab

2025 Record: 56-45 | +10.39u

Now, he faces a struggling-against-lefties Orioles team according to recent trends.

They are putting the ball in play however but Rodon boasts a top percentile BABIP average so it should neutralize that, especially with Rodon not allowing much hard contact and the Orioles also not being able to hit for it.

They’re also batting a high percentage of FB’s that should be prone to Rodon’s four seamer/slider combo.

Tigers and Twins also bat for FB’s but trends had them better against lefties during their respective matchups.

• When you also look at Rodon’s trends, he has yet to allow 5+ HA games in 3 straight.

This seems like the ideal bounceback spot for Rodon.

His median is 4 so hopefully we have enough edge here to get UNDER.

Despite their transfer-heavy secondary with eight seniors, Purdue has surrendered 571 total passing yards through three games - numbers that get even uglier when you examine the situational splits.

The biggest storyline heading into this game is Carr's pre-snap stance issue from the Texas A&M game has been addressed.

Carr completed 20 of 32 passes for 293 yards even with the tell, and now with defenses less likely to anticipate play calls, the passing game should see increased efficiency.

• Carr has thrown for 514 yards and 3 touchdowns in two games while completing 62.9% of his passes.

Malachi Fields operates primarily as the boundary receiver drawing top coverage attention, which creates favorable matchups for Greathouse in the slot against nickel coverage.

If Notre Dame follows their typical script of establishing the passing game early to set up their ground attack, Greathouse should see quality opportunities before Purdue's defense settles in.

After all his median for this line was 22 last year and yes I know he was with a different team, but he’s still the same Geno.

Commanders play a lot of man coverage and that’s an area where Smith tends to struggle against too.

Raiders right now are struggling to run block, which could make the Raiders offense one dimensional and allow this Commanders line to pressure Smith making it difficult to get completions.

The Raiders also know they have to get their ground game going anyways so I think that’ll be a point of emphasis too by Pete Carroll, especially the way Smith turned the ball over last week.

On the other side, Commanders have Mariota and I also highly doubt Smith is going to have to get into a shootout with him.

• The season is young but the Commanders are 2nd in completions allowed.

Several factors here point to a change of game script and I’m banking on his first under of the season 💪🏾

Colts QB Daniel Jones has started the season hot, averaging 294 yards per game and a league-best 71.4% completion rate, quickly building chemistry with his pass catchers.

Tennessee remains vulnerable in the secondary, missing top starters JC Latham and T’Vondre Sweat, plus multiple DBs are banged up or questionable.

The Titans’ defense ranks bottom-ten in yards allowed and is getting shredded on intermediate/deep routes.

With the Colts offensive line healthy and Jonathan Taylor keeping defenses honest, look for Jones to exploit Pierce’s downfield speed.

Pierce should see enough volume, especially if the game script tilts pass-heavy against Tennessee’s depleted and mistake-prone coverage unit.

Sleeper Drops the Legal Hammer

The prediction market industry has exploded into one of the most contentious regulatory battles in American gaming, with Sleeper's recent accusations against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Fantasy sports giant Sleeper is accusing the CFTC of illegally blocking its application to register as a futures commission merchant (FCM) - a move that would let it offer regulated sports event contracts nationwide.

Sleeper’s counsel says the National Futures Association was "ready to approve" in August, until the CFTC halted progress with no explanation, a move now under review by federal inspectors.

The company claims this “illegal delay” stifles competition and innovation at a moment when rivals like Polymarket are seeing regulatory green lights to relaunch.

Meanwhile, the federal vs. state turf war over who can regulate prediction markets is erupting.

Kalshi, another huge player, is battling state lawsuits for offering sports contracts without state betting licenses.

States say these federally regulated markets are siphoning revenue and offering gambling disguised as “event contracts” with no local consumer protections (I tend to agree).

The Bottom Line

The prediction market industry sits at nearly $2 billion in valuations (Kalshi) with platforms processing hundreds of millions in volume.

Sleeper's accusations suggest the regulatory process itself may be corrupted, while states are essentially arguing that federal law is being weaponized to circumvent decades of carefully-crafted gambling regulations.

This battle will determine whether innovation trumps state sovereignty - and whether the CFTC can maintain credibility while managing an industry that's growing faster than their ability to regulate it.

Football Seasons Fuel Handle In Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s sports betting posted a total handle of $515.4 million in August, a 6.2% increase from the previous year, according to the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board.

• Online betting dominated the market, contributing over $45 million in revenue, while retail sportsbooks accounted for about $3.7 million.

FanDuel and DraftKings continued their market dominance, with FanDuel reporting a $171.7 million handle and $18.7 million in revenue, and DraftKings close behind with $147.2 million handle and $12.3 million revenue.

This growth aligns with nationwide trends showing football as the primary driver of sports betting revenue, as both the NFL and college football kicked off in September.

Unsurprisingly, slots (online and in-person) still lead the state in revenue, but sports betting saw a whopping 63.82% YoY.