- Building Bankroll
- Posts
- Issue #59
In This Week’s Issue
This Week’s Betting Picks
Last Week: 1-1 | -0.17u
Spencer Arighetti u2.5 ER (-120) ✅ / The UNDERground Lab
Notre Dame -2.5 (-115) ❌ / Locksmith
2025 Record: 53-41 | +11.02u
Virginia QB Chandler Morris is dealing with a shoulder issue that forced him out of their opener.
While he practiced this week, the Cavaliers lost their starting offensive guards Monroe Mills (ACL) and Makilan Thomas (foot fracture) before the season even started.
Virginia's 48-7 win last week looks impressive until you realize Coastal Carolina was transitioning and nowhere near the program in years past.
NC State?
Zero injuries reported.
Extra preparation time with playing Thursday in Week 1.
The Wolfpack's new defensive unit has already showed improvement in their opener, with transfers Cian Slone and Sabastian Harsh combining for 14 tackles and 2.5 TFLs against East Carolina led by new defensive coordinator DJ Eliot.
Available at -138 on NoVig & ProphetX
The Saints defense ranked 31st out of 32 teams in preseason rankings.
They allowed the 5th-most yards per play last season and didn't meaningfully upgrade in the offseason.
Brandon Staley's defenses historically don't prioritize stopping the run, which means Arizona will control clock and field position.
When Rattler did start last year (0-6 record), he showed arm talent but poor decision-making in structured situations.
But garbage time is different - no pressure to manage the game, just chuck it to playmakers.
Alvin Kamara as a checkdown safety valve, Chris Olave as a proven deep threat, and enough speed on the perimeter to create explosive plays when defenses get conservative.
The +229 price assumes Rattler throws 0-1 TDs in a competitive game.
But if Arizona goes up 17+ (likely), Rattler will be throwing 33+ times with nothing to lose.
It just needs one perfect play call.
In his final season coordinating Detroit's offense, Johnson helped create 11 different players with receiving TDs.
His scheme is built to create mismatches and get receivers open in the red zone through motion and pick plays.
After a solid rookie year, Rome Odunze has added muscle and spent the entire offseason working with Caleb Williams in Johnson's system.
Minnesota's defense is strong overall, but their secondary depth is questionable.
Brian Flores's aggressive blitz schemes often leave receivers in single coverage, exactly where Johnson's route concepts thrive.
Johnson knows Monday Night Football is his head coaching debut.
Expect him to pull out creative red zone packages to showcase his new offense - and Odunze is the perfect size/skill combo for those looks.
Next Week: Sneak Peek
While traditional sportsbooks celebrate record NFL handle projections, a not-so-quiet revolution is reshaping the entire landscape.
Kalshi has parlays.
Kalshi’s ‘Multi-Leg Bet’
That's not a typo.
The CFTC-regulated prediction market that started with simple yes/no contracts on elections is now offering point spreads, totals, and touchdown props - everything that makes DraftKings and FanDuel billions in profit.
Here's the kicker: They're doing it nationwide.
No state licenses.
No tribal negotiations.
No geographic restrictions.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Sports prediction markets are projected to hit $555 million in revenue this year.
That's small compared to traditional sports betting's projected $18.5 billion, but consider this: Kalshi operates in all 50 states while major sportsbooks are still fighting for access in California and Texas.
During March Madness alone, Americans poured over $500 million into Kalshi's college basketball markets.
For context, that's more than some states' entire annual sports betting revenue.
The Bottom Line
This isn't just another betting platform launching.
This is the biggest disruption to hit sports betting since PASPA fell in 2018.
While everyone argues about which sportsbook has the best promos, a handful of prediction markets are rewriting the entire rule book.
The revolution is federally regulated, and it's already here.
Stay tuned 🤫
Reply