Building Bankroll - Issue #12

This Week in Sports Betting and a new way to track live stats.

Author

The Locksmith
October 07, 2024

In this edition:

This Week in Sports Betting

This will be a staple section from here on out, where we’ll give you a preview of what you’ll (probably) want to bet on in the coming week.

Any suggestions on what would make this schedule more useful for you?

Staying Sane on Busy Sports Days

NOT an ad.

With the MLB Playoffs, NFL, NCAAF, and now the NHL in full throttle, it’s gotten a lot more difficult to keep track of players/teams I’ve bet on without all the extra noise.

When I first installed ‘Real’ a few weeks back, things got a lot easier.

Simply put, Real is a sports app (like ESPN or Bleacher Report) that focuses specifically on plays, players, and games.

  • Plays, scores, stats, and games update in real-time.

  • Talk about plays and games with your friends and the community as they happen.

  • Compete on the leaderboards and “battle” your friends by predicting games and statlines.

  • Free to use, with a premium tier if you’re looking for extra interaction

I could spend 20 minutes writing out exactly why I’ve started using Real over ESPN, but I’ll just give you the three main reasons instead.

  1. App speed and usability

I used to always find my ESPN app lagging, closing out, or just not the smoothest way to find schedules, track stats, and find information I’ll use for placing bets.

The Real app is easily the fastest I’ve used, and does a faster job of updating injuries and other game-time information than most apps.

  1. Wider and deeper statistics

When I’m in the lab, I want access to as much information on teams and players as I can get - and I want it fast.

A screenshot of all the stats they offer would be longer than this email, but they record pretty anything from PPG to the average number of points a team concedes in the 4th quarter of games.

  1. Simplicity

Everything about this app is easy, and even after only using it for a few weeks I don’t think I can go back to anything else.

I don’t care as much about the social aspect at this point, and mainly use it for tracking and prepping to bet on games.

The biggest con here is that Real isn’t betting focused, so it doesn’t include lines outside of the spread and O/U for each game.

If you decide to give it a test run, let me know what you think!

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs | 8:15pm ET

After two straight weeks of double-headers on MNF, we are back to just one matchup to bet on.

  • October 21 and December 16 are the only two Monday Nights left with doubleheaders.

Saints vs Chiefs MNF Betting Preview

The New Orleans Saints, on a two-game losing streak, head to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs at 8:15pm Eastern.

With the Chiefs favored by 5 points and an over/under set at 43, this is one of the biggest MNF matchups so far this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs (4-0), led by Patrick Mahomes, are grappling with injuries to key receivers Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, with electric running back Isaiah Pacheco on the IR.

Despite these setbacks, Mahomes remains a strong opponent, adept at elevating the performance of his teammates even with a number of key injuries.

  • Expect the Chiefs to rally behind Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy

However, the Chiefs' passing game has been conservative, ranking 17th in EPA per dropback, and Mahomes is relying heavily on yards after catch.

The Saints' defense, ranked second in Defensive DVOA, poses a significant challenge, especially with their ability to limit passing efficiency.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints' offense, led by Derek Carr, has struggled recently, averaging just 18 points over the last two games.

Injuries on the offensive line, including the loss of center Erik McCoy, have hindered their performance.

However, the Saints' defense remains a bright spot, ranking fourth in EPA per play allowed, which could be crucial against a Chiefs team missing key offensive weapons.

Betting Insights

The Chiefs have struggled against the spread when favored by more than 3 points, with a 37% cover rate since November 2020.

The Saints, meanwhile, have a solid record (3-1) against the spread, particularly as underdogs.

It’s not too surprising to see a lower total of 43, especially with both teams facing offensive challenges.

The Saints' defense could keep the Chiefs' scoring in check, while New Orleans' offensive struggles might limit their own scoring opportunities.

  • Even without a few offensive playmakers, the Chiefs still have one of the top offenses in the league. Don’t count them out.

The Saints' ability to disrupt Mahomes' rhythm and capitalize on Kansas City's weakened receiving corps makes +5 a worthwhile look in my opinion.

TNF Betting Preview: 49ers @ Seahawks | 8:15pm ET

The San Francisco 49ers (2-3) head to Seattle to face the Seahawks (3-2) in a pivotal NFC West showdown.

  • SF -3

  • O/U: 47.5

49ers Analysis

San Francisco's recent form has been a rollercoaster, highlighted by their Week 5 collapse against the Cardinals.

Despite a 23-10 lead, the 49ers' offense sputtered in the second half, ending drives with turnovers and missed opportunities.

They lost the game 23-24.

Additionally, key players like Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have been inconsistent, trading off big performances.

The 49ers' defense, usually a strong point, will need to tighten up against a Seahawks team looking to rebound.

Injuries have also been a concern, with the offensive line struggling to protect quarterback Brock Purdy, whose home/away performance split is notable.

  • At home, Purdy boasts a completion rate of 68% and a passer rating of 110, compared to 58% and 85 on the road.

Seahawks Analysis

Seattle's offensive line woes were on full display in their loss to the Giants, as Geno Smith was sacked seven times.

The ground game was non-existent, with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet combining for a mere 30 yards.

  • Despite these struggles the Seahawks have shown flashes, particularly at home

Their defense, however, will need to step up against a 49ers team that has the potential to score on any drive.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks' ability to protect Smith and establish the run will likely be the deciding factor in this matchup.

Historically, Seattle has averaged 30.2 points in their wins against the 49ers since 2020, indicating their potential to exploit San Francisco's defense.

MLB Playoff Bracket

October baseball is here, and the divisional series is already serving up surprises.

Postseason Picture as of 10/7/24 3:00pm ET

The New York Mets stunned the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild card round, and the Detroit Tigers ended the Houston Astros' seven-year ALCS streak.

While we haven't hit peak drama yet, if the wild card round is any clue, we're in for a wild postseason ride.

Despite underdogs making waves, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are still the favorites for the 2024 World Series.

  1. Yankees +250

  2. Dodgers +450

  3. Phillies +450

  4. Padres +500

  5. Guardians +850

  6. Mets +1000

  7. Tigers +2000

  8. Royals +2300

But this is October baseball, where anything can happen, and feel-good stories like the Tigers and Royals have a real shot.

Now, it's down to eight teams.

In the NL, it's Mets vs. Phillies and Padres vs. Dodgers.

Over in the AL, the Tigers face the Guardians in a historic AL Central clash, while the Royals take on the Yankees.

Let the games… continue?

Last Week’s Betting Recap

Overall Record: 4-6 | -0.05 units

No picks this week, but big things coming on this end.

Stay tuned…

Someone always has a ticket.

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