UFC 305: Previews & Betting Predictions

This is a lengthy guide - use the table below if you already know where you want to go!

• Fight Dynamics, Betting Considerations, and X-Factors

  • Dricus Du Plessis v. Israel Adesanya

  • Kai Kara-France v. Steve Erceg

  • Mateusz Gamrot v. Dan Hooker

  • Tai Tuivasa v. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

  • Li Jingliang v. Carlos Prates

• Cappers’ Corner: Sharp Picks & Predictions for UFC 305

  • Early Prelim Picks and Predictions

  • Prelim Picks and Predictions

  • Main Card Picks and Predictions

• Even more UFC 305 Bets

Where: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

When: Saturday, August 17

• Early Prelims: 6:30pm ET

• Prelims: 8pm ET

• Main Card: 10pm ET

The PPV price for UFC 305 is $79.99 for ESPN+ customers.

New customers can bundle UFC 305 and an ESPN+ annual subscription for $134.98.

UFC 305 Main Card Breakdown: Fight Dynamics, Betting Considerations, and X-Factors

All odds are moneyline wagers at time of writing.

First fighter listed correlates to stats on left, 2nd fighter stats on right.

Dricus Du Plessis [+114] vs. Israel Adesanya [-135]

MIDDLEWEIGHT TITLE BOUT

Fight Dynamics

This middleweight title fight is a high-stakes showdown between Israel Adesanya, a tactical and precise striker with extensive championship experience, and Dricus Du Plessis, a relentless pressure fighter riding a wave of momentum.

Israel Adesanya | “The Last Stylebender”

Adesanya is known for his exceptional striking accuracy, movement, and fight IQ.

With a kickboxing background, he excels at maintaining distance, using feints and angles to keep his opponents guessing.

Adesanya’s experience in five-round title fights adds to his advantage, as he has shown the ability to adapt and outlast opponents.

However, his recent losses have revealed vulnerabilities, particularly against fighters who can mix up their attacks and apply consistent pressure.

• In his most recent fight (Sep 9, 2023), Adesanya lost by decision against Sean Strickland.

Dricus Du Plessis | “Stillknocks”

Du Plessis enters the fight as a rising star with a relentless, high-pressure style that combines powerful striking with effective grappling.

He has shown the ability to disrupt opponents' rhythms, forcing them into uncomfortable exchanges.

Du Plessis’ recent victories against top competition have undoubtedly bolstered his confidence, and his aggressive approach could potentially overwhelm Adesanya if he can close the distance and avoid being picked apart from the outside.

• In his most recent fight (Jan 20, 2024), De Plessis won by decision against Sean Strickland.

Betting Considerations

If Adesanya can control the pace and maintain distance, his superior striking should give him the edge.

However, Du Plessis’ aggression and grappling could create significant challenges, particularly if he can force Adesanya into a high-paced, scrappy fight.

Key X-Factors

• Adesanya's Distance Control: Can Adesanya keep Du Plessis at bay with his range and precision, avoiding the brawling exchanges where Du Plessis thrives?

• Du Plessis' Pressure: Will Du Plessis be able to close the distance effectively and turn the fight into a high-paced brawl, where his power and aggression could shine?

This fight is not just about who lands the harder shots, but about who can impose their style more effectively.

Kai Kara-France [+170] vs. Steve Erceg [-205]

FLYWEIGHT BOUT

Fight Dynamics

This flyweight bout features Kai Kara-France, an established contender with sharp striking and experience against elite competition, versus Steve Erceg, a rising prospect with a strong grappling base and submission skills.

Kai Kara-France | “Don’t Blink”

Kara-France is known for his fast, technical striking and durability.

His experience in high-level fights gives him an edge in terms of composure and fight IQ.

However, his recent performances have shown some vulnerability when faced with relentless grapplers who can control the pace and position (Erceg).

• He has a solid takedown defense, which will be critical in this matchup to keep the fight standing where he excels.

Steve Erceg | “Astroboy”

Erceg, while less experienced on the big stage, brings a dangerous submission game and strong grappling.

His ability to take the fight to the ground and control his opponents could pose significant problems for Kara-France if he can bypass his takedown defense.

• Erceg's striking is serviceable but not at the level of Kara-France’s, making his path to victory likely reliant on his ability to grapple and impose his will on the ground.

Betting Considerations

The key to this fight will be whether Kara-France can keep the fight standing and utilize his superior striking, or if Erceg can close the distance and bring the fight to the ground.

Kara-France’s experience and striking give him a significant edge on the feet, but Erceg’s grappling could turn the fight in his favor if he can secure takedowns and work towards submissions.

Key X-Factors

• Kara-France’s Takedown Defense: Can he keep the fight standing and avoid Erceg’s submission attempts?

• Erceg’s Grappling: Will Erceg be able to consistently take Kara-France down and control him on the mat?

Kara-France's experience at the top level could be a crucial factor, particularly in a close fight where fight IQ and composure under pressure matter.

Mateusz Gamrot [-325] vs. Dan Hooker [+260]

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT

Fight Dynamics

This lightweight bout showcases Mateusz Gamrot, a relentless wrestler and grappler, against Dan Hooker, a seasoned striker known for his resilience and knockout power.

Mateusz Gamrot | “Gamer”

Gamrot is a relentless wrestler with a strong grappling base, known for his ability to chain together takedowns and control opponents on the mat.

His cardio and pace are major assets, allowing him to maintain pressure throughout the fight.

Gamrot’s striking is solid but primarily serves as a means to set up his wrestling.

• His game plan will likely involve closing the distance, securing takedowns, and grinding Hooker down with top control and ground-and-pound.

Dan Hooker | “The Hangman”

Hooker, a striking specialist, is known for his durability, range, and knockout power.

He thrives in striking exchanges and has the ability to land powerful knees and punches, particularly in the clinch and at range.

Hooker’s takedown defense will be a critical factor in this fight, as he’ll need to keep the fight standing to exploit his advantages.

• While he has shown vulnerability to strong grapplers in the past, Hooker’s experience and striking acumen make him a dangerous opponent for anyone willing to engage on the feet.

Betting Considerations

The key to this fight is whether Gamrot can implement his wrestling and keep Hooker on his back, or if Hooker can use his range and striking to keep Gamrot at bay.

Gamrot’s relentless pressure and grappling make him the favorite in most scenarios where the fight goes to the ground.

Hooker’s knockout power and striking could turn the tide if he can defend the takedowns and force Gamrot into a striking match.

Key X-Factors

• Gamrot’s Wrestling and Pressure: Can Gamrot consistently close the distance and take Hooker down, neutralizing his striking?

• Hooker’s Takedown Defense: Will Hooker be able to keep the fight standing and capitalize on his striking advantage?

Both fighters have shown durability, but Gamrot’s pace and cardio could wear down Hooker if the fight goes into the later rounds.

Tai Tuivasa [+185] vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik [-225]

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT

Fight Dynamics

This heavyweight clash pits two of the UFC's most dangerous knockout artists against each other, making it one of the most volatile and unpredictable fights on the UFC 305 card.

How can you not love that?

Tai Tuivasa | “Bam Bam”

Tuivasa enters the fight with a reputation for engaging in wild exchanges and thriving in chaotic situations.

His knockout power is undeniable, but his aggressive style also leaves him open to counters, as seen in past losses where he was outmaneuvered by more technical strikers.

• Tuivasa's chin and durability have been both assets and liabilities—while he can absorb a lot of damage, he has also been stopped by heavy hitters who were able to exploit his defensive lapses.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik | ”Bigi Boy”

Rozenstruik, on the other hand, is more methodical in his approach.

He often allows opponents to come to him, using his strong counter-striking abilities to land devastating shots.

His experience in kickboxing gives him a technical edge in striking exchanges, especially when it comes to maintaining distance and timing his punches.

• Rozenstruik’s knockout power is as lethal as Tuivasa's, but he typically avoids getting drawn into wild brawls, which could be advantageous against someone like Tuivasa.

Betting Considerations

This matchup is likely to be decided by who can better impose their style.

If Tuivasa can force Rozenstruik into a firefight, his chances of landing a knockout increase significantly.

However, if Rozenstruik can maintain his composure, stay on the outside, and pick his shots, he may be able to capitalize on Tuivasa’s defensive gaps.

Key X-Factors

• Tuivasa's Chin: How much punishment can he absorb, and will Rozenstruik’s counters find their mark?

• Rozenstruik's Patience: Can he stay disciplined and avoid being drawn into a brawl, where Tuivasa excels?

Both fighters end 93% of their fights by KO/TKO.

Li Jingliang [+230] vs. Carlos Prates [-285]

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT

Fight Dynamics

This welterweight bout pits Li Jingliang, a seasoned striker known for his power and durability, against Carlos Prates, a rising prospect with a well-rounded skill set.

Li Jingliang | “The Leech”

Jingliang is a powerful striker with significant knockout potential, particularly with his overhand right.

He is tough and has shown resilience in brawls, often relying on his ability to absorb damage while delivering his own.

His grappling is competent, but his main threat lies in his stand-up game, where he looks to overwhelm opponents with pressure and power punches.

• Jingliang’s experience in the UFC, fighting top-tier opponents, provides him with the composure needed in intense exchanges.

Carlos Prates | “The Nightmare”

Prates holds a solid 19-6 record and an 11-fight win streak, including two victories in the UFC.

Coming through Dana White’s Contender Series, the 30-year-old Brazilian is building momentum, though his list of opponents doesn’t yet match the caliber of more established fighters like Jingliang.

He holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but his fights rarely go to the ground due to his effective clinch game and counter-wrestling.

This makes him a dangerous opponent on the feet, as he can avoid takedowns and keep the fight where he's most comfortable.

However, facing a seasoned fighter like Jingliang will test Prates in ways he hasn’t yet experienced.

• Prates' ability to maintain his composure and execute his game plan will be crucial if he wants to continue his ascent in the UFC.

Betting Considerations

The key factor in this fight is whether Jingliang can keep the fight standing and utilize his power, or if Bonfim can successfully implement his grappling and secure a submission.

Jingliang’s experience and striking power give him an edge in stand-up exchanges, but Bonfim’s ability to blend striking with grappling makes him a dangerous opponent if the fight goes to the ground.

Key X-Factors

• Bonfim’s Submission Game: Will Bonfim be able to take Jingliang down and finish the fight on the ground?

• Experience vs. Youth: Jingliang’s experience at the top level contrasts with Bonfim’s youthful aggression and finishing ability.

Can Jingliang withstand Bonfim’s aggression and land a fight-ending shot?

Cappers’ Corner: Sharp Picks & Predictions for UFC 305

We reached out to some of the top UFC cappers and asked for their favorite bet(s) on UFC 305.

Here’s what they said:

All times in ET.

Format: Wager | Odds | Confidence score out of 3

UFC 305: Early Prelim Picks and Predictions

Steward Nicoll [-225] vs. Jesus Aguilar [+185] | 6:45pm

Nicoll looks for the takedown where he’s been able to overwhelm opponents and get ground and pound finishes, but Aguilar is no pushover.

He barely won his last fight against Mendonca where there were many takedowns and reversals, and I haven’t seen a fight where Nicoll had to deal with someone who was scrappy enough to reverse his position on the ground.

Nicoll could get position in the first round, but if he doesn’t get the finish I think Aguilar can frustrate him and win some exchanges on the feet and on the ground.

• No chance I’m taking Nicoll at -225. Aguilar is the play, and to give you even better odds, I might take a shot on Aguilar by decision as I think there will be a lot of wrestling and ground time with no finishes.

Kenan Song [-198] vs. Ricky Glenn [+164] | 7:15pm

Kenan is a powerful striker that is fighting at his natural weight class (170) against a natural lightweight (155) in Rick Glenn.

Rick Glenn is coming off 2 first round knockout losses and a 2 year layoff. While they both are low level MMA, I believe Rick is far worse.

Kenan struggles against pressure fighters with power and volume, both of which Rick didn’t even have at 155.

Kenan will have the edge everywhere and has the better cardio.

If he sticks to a game plan he should win this fight with ease.

• I see this ending by KO or a decision.

He has one win since 2018, and he’s been knocked out in the first round in his last two fights, and I have to believe his UFC career is coming to an end.

He’s not fast on the feet, and it appears like he doesn’t have the KO power anymore, and I think he gets handed another loss here.

Song has lost three in a row, but he’s lost to Max Griffin, Ian Garry and Kevin Jousset, all solid opponents, and he has a win against Bedoya mixed in.

Like Glenn, he doesn’t seem to have the KO power anymore, but he went the distance against Jousset, and I like his movement on the feet a lot better.

• Unless Glenn finds the fountain of youth and gets the KO, I think Song outworks him on the feet en route to a decision win.

UFC 305: Prelim Picks and Predictions

Jack Jenkins [-800] v. Herbert Burns [+550] | 8:15pm

Burns is an avid gasser as well - he’s on his way out the fight half way through round 2.

I think as he starts to gas from all the body shots he will take before making it to round 3.

Burns is better on the mat, but i think Jenkins can keep the fight standing and get a finish.

• I’ll be betting a Round 2 KO/TKO, and sprinkling Round 3 in case Burns has a bit more in the tank.

Casey O’Neill [+124] v. Luana Santos [-148] | 8:45pm

Santos could have success early here in the grappling, but short of an early sub I think she will struggle bad past the first round.

She has a minus gas tank, zero standing defense, has looked suspect on bottom and is likely being overhyped coming off 3 wins against the bottom of the UFC Barrel.

• I like O'Neill to right the ship at the dog price.

Junior Tafa [-130] vs. Valter Walker [+110] | 9:45pm

• Double Nickels on Instagram

Walker can defeat Junior Tafa at UFC 305 by implementing a wrestling-heavy game plan and utilizing his improved cardio.

He'll look to close the distance early, avoiding Tafa's striking power by shooting for takedowns and controlling the fight on the ground.

Once on the mat, Walker will use his dominant top control to smother Tafa, landing ground-and-pound to wear him down.

By maintaining pressure and keeping Tafa on his back, Walker can neutralize Tafa's striking threat, potentially securing a submission or a ground-and-pound TKO.

• If Tafa manages to survive, Walker’s relentless wrestling will likely lead to a unanimous decision victory.

UFC 305: Main Card Predictions

Li Jingliang [+280] vs. Carlos Prates [-355] | 10:15pm

Carlos Prates on the other hand is an offensive monster who hits really hard and is very tall, long and fast for the division.

Yet Prates through two fights has shown very poor standing defense and gets hit flush all the time.

That's a terrible recipe taking on a counter striker like the Leech who will punish almost every miss.

• It's possible Leech is just done and Prates puts him out to pasture, but if he's not I expect him to compete hard here and be much more competitive than the line.

Prates can put Li’s lights out anytime before round 3 and take it by TKO/KO.

• Knockout of the year candidate here in my opinion.

Tai Tuivasa [+195] vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik [-238] | 10:45pm

I think the only way Tuivasa loses this fight is if he brings a bad game plan and stays on the outside.

If he fights more of his style - rushing and getting biggie boi on the cage - taking a Tuivasa Round 1 KO/TKO.

• Tomorrow night we will be doing shoeys again!

Jairzinho is coming off arguably his best performance in the UFC where he was highly productive and handed Shamil Gaziev his first professional loss.

This fight is going to be heavy with striking and both of these fighters have very few fights go the distance.

• I’m backing the in-form Jairzinho for the win.

Mateusz Gamrot [-325] vs. Daniel Hooker [+280] | 11:15pm

A KO finish is the only way to victory for Hooker here.

However, the fighter from Poland has never been knocked out. Gamrot wins rounds with his wrestling and control on the ground.

I can’t see Hooker being able to stop takedowns for 3 rounds.

• Predict a comfortable decision win for Gamrot, which puts him right in the mix for a title shot.

Kai Kara-France [+145] vs. Steve Erceg [-160] | 11:45pm

Erceg will have the wrestling/grappling edge because he doesn’t shoot the traditional double leg, but tries to rotate towards back takes and leaning on his BJJ.

Good tape to watch for this is Raulian Paiva and Royval, because they are larger 135ers.

Erceg will be live for a club and sub if he hurts KKF who has taken time off with concussion issues and we know Erceg has power.

He made a mistake which cost him the title fight but I don’t think now is the time to step off the train.

• Erceg live for a finish or a close 29-28 win.

Dricus Du Plessis [-110] vs. Israel Adesanya [-110] | 12:15am

I think in the end this will just come down to the fact that Dricus is the stronger and tougher man.

• Give me Dricus getting a 3rd round TKO!!

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