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Issue #40
Reviewing The Best(?) +EV Sports Betting Software, NFL Draft Betting Primer, & Weekly Betting Picks.
The Locksmith
April 21, 2025
Sports Betting: April 21 - April 27, 2025
Community Cappers Lock In Their Weekly Betting Picks
Last Week: 1-3 | -1.9u
Clay Holmes Under 4.5 Strikeouts [+140] ❌ / The UNDERground Lab
Joe Ryan Under 5.5 Strikeouts [+120] ❌ / The UNDERground Lab
Mouhamed Gueye Under 4.5 Rebounds [+110] ✅ / The UNDERground Lab
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 HRR [-110] ❌ / The Locksmith
2025 Record: 24-24 | +1.49u ⚖️
I like this for a regression spot since in game 1, Ausar and Duren got into early foul trouble which gave THJ more volume than anticipated and that early revenge game narrative.
Even then, he only got 27 mins and got loose for some quick inside which is uncharacteristic.
I expect the Knicks defense to clean up a bit like we’re accustomed to seeing.
Also, expect to see the Pistons be more disciplined because they’re going to need guys like Ausar and Duren and less of THJ because of his defensive liabilities.
In 20-30 mins since Ivey’s injury and w/ everyone else healthy, THJ averages 10.4 ppg with a median of 9. -110 isn’t bad here.
Give us the UNDER!
The Pacers’ fast pace and transition-heavy style disrupt Giannis’ half-court playmaking. Their defense, bolstered by Nesmith, ranks 12th in defensive rating, likely forcing Giannis to focus on scoring (36.7 PPG vs. Pacers since 11/2023) rather than facilitating.
This matchup screams under.
Game tips off tomorrow (April 22)
Outlier Pro: Level Up Your Betting Game
This is NOT an ad or an affiliate deal. It’s an objective review with the only goal of helping you win more bets - Whether you end up using the software or not.
Last week, I teased an in-depth review of Outlier.bet's "Pro" version.
After extensively testing the features myself and talking with other power users of the tool, I’ve come away with a clear picture of what separates Outlier "Pro" from the "Premium" version, and whether the upgrade is worth it for serious bettors.
(User feedback and reviews sprinkled throughout, because you shouldn’t just take my word for it)
TL;DR
Outlier Pro is a “top‑down” betting software built around edge‑hunting tools (Positive EV, Arbitrage, Boosts & Middles) plus real‑time alerts and deep customization.
At $129.99/mo it’s priced for bettors who plan to hammer these edges every day.
Casual bettors may not need all this firepower - but it puts a LOT of sharp tech behind one login.
Available on the web and/or fully native mobile app 👀
via Outlier
What Pro Actually Adds
Feature | What You Get | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
Positive EV Feed | Live table with EV%, Kelly %, width, custom devig method, date range, league filters. One‑click expand shows best price, EV odds, and source books. | Hunt mathematically mis‑priced lines instead of guessing. |
Arbitrage Scanner | Slider for Minimum Arbitrage %, book toggles, ability to save named filters and turn on web/mobile push. | Finds pure risk‑free middles; saving a 2% filter + notifications means you get pinged the moment a truly “risk-free” arb appears so you’re not staring at the screen all day. |
Boosts Dashboard | Toggle Sportsbooks / DFS, book on/off switches, sort ↑↓ by EV % or Kelly %. | Combines all odds‑boost promos in one place and tells you which are actually +EV. |
Education & Guides | Pop‑ups like What is the Vig? and What is EV +?, plus an in‑app glossary & tutorials. | New to this type of betting? The training wheels are baked in, so you don’t need to bounce to Reddit/Google to decode the math. |
Real‑Time Alerts | Global toggle for web push + mobile push. Severely underrated feature. | Hands‑off way to catch fleeting EV/arbs while you’re watching games or, you know, living life. |
Custom Devig & Kelly Tools | Choice of multiplicative, additive, Shin, power methods; user‑defined book weights. | Fine‑tune edge calcs to match your risk tolerance and which “sharp” books you trust. Outlier - Smarter Sports Betting |
Mobile and Web App Notifications
Feedback from a Power User of Outlier Pro:
"In my experience, Outlier Pro truly stands out in the crowded market of +EV betting services.
They offer innovative features that really empower me as a user. Unlike many other platforms, Outlier Pro provides unique filtering options, including a weighted devig system that makes me feel in control of my +EV betting strategies. This system not only allows me to make adjustments but also lets me develop my own devig process, which is half the fun!
I also find the user interface of Outlier Pro to be one of the best in the industry, making my +EV betting experience much more enjoyable
That said, I do see some areas where Outlier Pro could improve. I believe incorporating historical movement data from sharp books would make it easier to track market shifts. Additionally, expanding the range of retail books available on would allow the user to find even more +EV opportunities
Overall, I think Outlier Pro is making significant strides in making +EV betting more engaging, and I appreciate their continuous efforts to improve their service. They are truly a great company!
Day‑to‑Day Workflow
Dial in Filters – Set Min EV %, Kelly %, Vig %, Sportsbooks you use, etc.
Save & Notify – Name that setup (“NBA 5 %+ / Kelly>2 %”) and flip on push alerts.
Scan Feed – The EV or Arb tables auto‑refresh; blue arrow icons flag lines that just moved.
One‑Click Bet – Click the book logo → Outlier deep‑links straight into the betslip on FD/DK/etc., shaving seconds.
The value compounds over time - the more bets you place daily, the more time you save. It may seem small, but I think it matters.
Educate While You Wait – Every unfamiliar term has a hover‑tooltip or explainer video—good onboarding touch.
Example Guide
Another standout feature that goes to show how much thought the team has put into this application - Users can hunt for bets on the web and scan a quick QR code to seamlessly place the bets on mobile.
Strengths 🔥
True pro tools in consumer UI – Most EV/arbitrage platforms feel like spreadsheets; Outlier wraps them in a slick interface that is fast, clean, and really dynamic
Push alerts actually work – No more missing a 10 % arb because you were pouring coffee.
Multi‑book devig + custom weighting – Very rare outside of enterprise‑grade products.
Wide book coverage – Major U.S. books plus DFS sites (PrizePicks, Underdog, Sleeper) and new sharp lines (Circa, Bookmaker).
New integrations being added all the time, with Outlier planning to expand to Exchanges in the future
More Books = More Edges
Weaknesses 🥶
Price tag – $129.99/mo means you need meaningful volume or higher‑unit sizing to justify it.
Premium level sits at $19.99/month, purchase either annually and save 17%
Casual bettors laying less money per bet may struggle to win/bet enough to cover the cost of the tool AND make a profit
Learning curve – If Kelly Criterion and vig math sound like Greek, expect a ramp‑up week despite the guides. The more you do it, the more comfortable you’ll get.
Regional gaps – Still missing some local/regional books; edges can vanish or be watered down if you can’t access the quoted/best line
All good things take time. New books are being added consistently, and there are DEFINITELY enough options to get your money’s worth
Sometimes, slow odds updates at peak times – During busy slates, odds can lag behind real-time line moves. This delay can cause false arbitrage alerts or stale EV reads, especially if you’re betting fast-moving markets.
If you’re not double-checking odds/lines before placing bets, you ALWAYS should be. Whether you use a tool or not.
Who Pro Is For
Volume bettors & arbitrage hunters who fire dozens of plays daily.
It’s generally more about your unit size than the exact number of plays per day in my opinion
Model‑driven “value” bettors wanting devig control & Kelly sizing.
DFS grinders looking to exploit soft lines on PP/Underdog before they move.
Not for: casual once‑a‑week dabblers or people who bet small amounts every so often.
The Premium tier is more than enough for these bettors.
Just a few of the Pro Filters
Workflow & Feedback from a Power User of Outlier Pro:
(It’s a lot, but it’s seriously worth the read.)
"I am a hybrid bettor - I understand the core values and math behind EV betting but I also am comfortable enough with sports and data that I balance the two.
I have several filters setup for daily use - these are really prop-focused within each sport.
For example, I have common pitching markets setup so i can easily go through what i like. On the EV side, I have specific EV filters I've created (and love) that I've learned from testing work best on different sports - for example, I have a "EV vs FanDuel" filter that allows me to treat FanDuel like the sharp book and devig against it (instead of Pinnacle, which is usually the book by default). I do this because I hypothesize (and Outlier helps) that FanDuel is both the sharp and public book for NBA props because it has the widest depth of market but also moves based on public betting. I use this filter to then play NBA props near tip - it's great. It's just an example of how deep down the rabbit hole I can go with Outlier.
My general overall betting style is to find the data I care about for a sport and then pick out angles and use Outlier to price shop. While it's often slow during peak hours (and by slow I mean, lines move faster than the screen can display them), Outlier is still best for UX and price shopping when it comes to confirming angles and looking for bets. The ability to set it and forget it on what edge I want and what types of markets makes this a daily use for me. I'm less of an arbitrage guy because I simply don't have time to chase lines that move quickly, but I get that someone who does might. For me, Outlier's true power comes in the ability to customize what I want to look for every day as I work it into supporting my research.
I'd say 75% of my bets come from outlier. I use a few tools in concert with Outlier - as Outlier tends to only give EV notification for main markets. As a baseball bettor, I like to know if someone's EV on steals, singles, etc as well - not just Home Runs.
I'll use different baseball metrics sites as well as other betting insights platforms when I want to split the data more but it's a rare occurrence. Outlier recently added the ability to see historical lines vs positions in the NBA and NHL which dramatically increases my use of the product for handicapping prop angles.
The first thing a Pro user should do is setup filters across sports for the EV settings they know they care about. My assumption is if you're using Pro, you have a basic understanding of EV, you know what % you want so this is most valuable as kickoff.
You probably should set those up first and then create your workflow - by that I mean, what do you want to look at first when deciding a bet. if you "bet numbers not players" - this doesn't really apply to you but if you're me - you care about that stuff so you look at the settings you care about for bets you'd make regardless of value (i.e. price, over/under, book, etc) and set that up as a filter before setting up an EV filter. There's really just so much you can do.
Outlier Pro is one of the best platforms out there - they've greatly improved their ability to offer data splits - recently adding historical and quarterly derivatives. They're often a bit slow on the odds, which during high season can be a pain, but their UX is much better than anything out there - making them my favorite tool.
Sort Boosts by EV/Kelly 🤯
How Many Units Does Outlier Pro Have to Earn Before It Pays For Itself?
Outlier PRO costs $129.99 per month or $579.99 per year (works out to ≈ $48.33 per month if you pre‑pay).
Translating that into the language every bettor understands—units—gives you an instant gut‑check on value:
Unit Size | Break‑even Units | Break‑even Units | Break‑even Units |
|---|---|---|---|
$10 | 13 units | 4.8 units | 58 units |
$30 | 4.3 units | 1.6 units | 19 units |
$50 | 2.6 units | 1.0 unit | 12 units |
$100 | 1.3 units | 0.5 units | 6 units |
$1,000 | 0.13 units | 0.05 units | < 1 unit |
Rounded to the nearest tenth for quick math.
What does that look like in practice?
$10‑unit bettor
Monthly plan: clear 13 units (net +$130) and everything after that is gravy.
Annual plan: average 5 units a month.
$50‑unit bettor
3-6 solid plus‑EV winners (or a couple juicy arbs) a month wipes out the cost.
$100‑unit bettor
Nail a few +EV plays and you’re even; anything else is profit.
Heavy‑volume players will clear that easily; weekend‑only dabblers definitely won’t.
If you’re firing $30–$50 units (or bigger) and you plan to take a modest volume of EV/arbitrage/boost plays daily, the Pro version’s fee is effectively a rounding error.
EV Screen & Market Width
The Bottom Line
Outlier Pro crams a quant desk’s worth of scanners, filters and alerting into a slick app.
If you’re committed to +EV or arb betting and already juggling multiple books, the subscription can pay for itself very quickly.
Watch me snag a $40 risk-free arbitrage in less than 1 minute.
If you’re still betting gut feels, save your cash—or better yet, use those free guides to level up and come back when you’re ready to bet like a pro.
With a free 7-day trial, ANY bettor can try the Pro version with zero risk - and Outlier provides plenty of learning materials for every level of bettor
Feedback from an emerging Power User of Outlier Pro:
"Likes:
- Filter options give you incredible flexibility to find what types of bets you are looking for.
- Gives you pretty much all the data you want for player props so you can do your own research beyond the EV or trends that it finds.
- Notifications for the types of bets you are looking for makes it easy to stay on top of the betting market.
Dislikes:
- I have had the odds not update very quickly, particularly for the arbitrage opportunities. Even after restarting the app/refreshing, the odds won't update for 15 minutes in the Outlier app so it says it is still an arbitrage opportunity even though it isn't.
- Learning what buttons you need to press isn't the most intuitive thing. Example: If you want to get more info on a bet, you don't just press on the general box. That adds it to your picks. To do more research you have to press the small graph on the left side. In my mind it should be reversed."
Know a bettor who needs to check out this review of Outlier Pro?
Click the button below & send the link their way 🙌
2025 NFL Draft: Betting Primer
The 2025 NFL Draft is right around the corner - This year the 90th annual NFL Draft will be held in Green Bay, WI, marking its first time there.
Round 1: Thursday, April 24 | 8pm ET
Rounds 2–3: Friday, April 25 | 7pm ET
Rounds 4–7: Saturday, April 26 | 12:00pm ET
The draft will be broadcast on NFL Network, ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN Deportes.
via X, line shop before buying 💰
Draft Order
The draft order, finalized on March 11, 2025, sees the Titans at No. 1, followed by the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants, with all first-round picks currently held by the original teams.
Early first‑round swaps have gone the way of the fullback: nearly extinct.
Over the last seven drafts (2018‑2024), less than 10 trades have involved picks 1‑7
Four of those were worked out weeks before the draft, NOT on the clock.
Draft Props: Smaller Every Year
Sportsbooks used to roll out buffet‑style menus for the draft - player O/Us, exact pick, team matchups, you name it.
But after a few years of getting steamrolled by leak‑hungry sharps, the house slammed on the brakes.
What happened?
Leaked intel crushed books. In 2022, Quay Walker’s “first linebacker” odds rocketed from +500 to heavy favorite.
The Packers traded Las Vegas for the 22nd pick, and took Quay Walker as the first linebacker off the board.
Limits went tiny. Sportsbooks imposed lower “max bets” across the NFL Draft market to stem the bleeding.
Regulators stepped in. New York bans draft betting outright, calling it “non‑sport,” while other jurisdictions tighten controls across the board.
‘‘If the individual you’re describing said, ‘I’ve got this on good authority,’ well, they’ve got somebody on the inside . . . violating company policy because the NFL has very strict guidelines on that proprietary information. It’s concerning. And if everybody had tomorrow’s newspaper, there’d be no bookmakers.’’
Most Common 2025 NFL Draft Markets
Here are some of the best NFL Draft bets available right now at our top 5 NFL Draft sportsbooks:
1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th overall pick
# quarterback drafted (eg. 1st, 2nd, 3rd)
# running back drafted
# wide receiver drafted
# Defensive lineman drafted
# Offensive lineman drafted
# Tight end drafted
Position of first drafted player by team
First non-QB selected
Last overall selection (Mr. Irrelevant)
Position Totals
Total Cornerbacks drafted in 1st round (eg. DL, OL, RB, WR)
 1st Overall Odds (FanDuel) |  Mr. Irrelevant Position Odds (DK) |
Top 5 NFL Draft Betting Sites
DraftKings
FanDuel
Bet365
BetMGM
Caesars Sportsbook
The Bottom Line
Draft props aren’t dead, just slimmer and more tactical.
Odds will shift SECONDS after credible reports hit - Unless you’re in the room with the suits, thousands will probably know what’s going to happen before you.
Pick your spots and don’t expect to fire big units.
This Week’s Slate
NFL Draft (in case you already forgot)
NBA Playoffs: Round 1 Continues
NHL Playoffs: Round 1 Continues
MLB Season Continues
Click here for this week’s schedule
Slip of the Week
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